Holding the Line in the First Island Chain

There are strategic and military risks operating forward in the First Island Chain close to China's military power. But there are strategic risks of standing off.

This is correct about America's military strength in the First Island Chain of the western Pacific:

The United States will never be able to peer inside of Xi’s head, but he must know that gambling on conflict in the Pacific could earn his place in history as the unifier of China or risk defeat, his legacy, and the stability of the Chinese Communist Party regime. Will he be more likely to take that wager with the presence or absence of forward-postured US forces? History points to the answer. The United States demonstrating a strong hand in the first island chain will help Xi recognize that war is a bad bet.

Yet forward-deployed forces on the first island line are vulnerable. But allies left on their own at the first island chain may wobble.

So it is a delicate balance between deterring with presence; preserving forces with distance; considering whether China is tempted to attack or is deterred; and reassuring or frightening our allies along the first island chain line.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Map from Taipei Times.