Weekend Data Dump

Is the apparent lack of a visible Iranian supreme leader giving Iranian protesters room to grow?

Will high energy prices cripple European industry? For many Greens that's a feature rather than a bug. How will the victims of that victory react? More on the natural gas problem in Europe. Remember, Putin just exploited what the Greens did to European energy "strategy".

The Taliban may be setting their sights on Central Asia. Despite their victory over America, Russia may seem an easier target. Will the Central Asians see Russia as their protector or will China build on economic ties (and last week I noted this highly related news: "Belt and Road 2.0 0.2, it seems.") to become the protector? All is proceeding as I foretold.

Is Hillary! Clinton really planning to run for president again? It is Dick Morris, after all. Not exactly Mr. Credibility. Or is she just trying to maintain Brand Hillary to attract donations? Still:

Iran expands its arsenal of wonder weapons.

Japan as the third "global military power"? Sort of. Japan could have the third strongest conventional military. But it won't be a global military power as far as reach. Japan doesn't have the logistics to be more than a regional military power. But much like Europe in the Cold War, Japan could be a decisive factor in global power competition because of its location near China.

Allies 2.0: "More than 2,500 U.S. and Philippine marines joined combat exercises Monday to respond to any sudden crisis in a region long on tenterhooks over South China Sea territorial disputes and increasing tensions over Taiwan."

The mullah regime in Iran hauled their quiet chief nutball out of the basement: "Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday blamed the U.S. for the widespread protests still erupting in Iran[.]" If only we were that competent.

I can't say I'm happy that Russian soldiers are dying in large numbers. But I feel worse for the Ukrainian dead. And sending body bags of Russian troops back to Russia--no matter how unwilling the troops are--is the only way to get Russia to admit defeat and end the invasion.

The U.S. is still trying to convince Turkey to move along with approving NATO membership for Finland and Sweden.

Shame on him! "Burkina Faso's Capt Ibrahim Traoré has become the latest military officer to seize power in a coup in one of France's former colonies in West Africa." Wait until you are a general! A colonel, at minimum.

America: From pivoting to the Pacific to pivoting across the Pacific. Tip to Instapundit.

I don't think it is appropriate for a Ukrainian diplomat to tell the man who provided Ukraine with secure communications to "fuck off." And while other Musk's suggestions aren't something I agree with, using Crimea as a bargaining chip for peace after defeating Russia's latest invasion is hardly crazy. I've done that. Although I'm not locked into the specifics from back then. But I don't think bringing more pro-Russian Crimean voters into Ukraine--at a potentially high cost in Ukrainian troops--is a great idea. I think the option of selling Crimea to Russia should be an option, if it doesn't save Russia from defeat and promotes the end of the war. The sale--and back rent to 2014--could disguise decades of what would effectively be Russian reparations for the invasions. Ukraine may well reject the notion. Russia might, too. But it isn't crazy.

Russia sent the huge sub Belgorod with its Poseidon nuclear torpedo (?) to sea for tests. Whatever. LOL! Less humorous is the movement of a Russian train possibly carrying nuclear weapons toward Ukraine. But it might be a bluff. Especially given it is moving at the same time as the underwater bullshit machine. I don't assume a "test", as I've heard it might be for, means detonating a nuke on Russian territory. Tip to Instapundit.

Corruption is undermining Iraq's fragile democracy, in part by enabling Iran's destructive influence. Is Moqtada al-Sadr really the hero in this drama?

You can't replace weapons and ammunition losses and usage in a war with peacetime production.

Is it my imagination or are the people who say NATO is obsolete the same people who say it is natural for Russia to want a buffer zone in the west? A buffer that once bisected Germany.

Russian nuclear targeting doctrine. I find the idea that without nuclear arms treaties Russia can massively increase their nuclear arsenal to be ludicrous given I doubt how much of its existing arsenal works. There is reason to worry about Putin. But reason he shouldn't want to risk exposing the fraud of his nuclear deterrent.

North Korea fired a ballistic missile over northern Japan. As I noted last week, Japanese in northern Japan killed a land-based missile defense system to protect them.

I'm not for NATO ignoring the Black Sea. But saying it is key for preventing Russia from projecting power into the Mediterranean Sea is nonsense. Sure, Crimea enables that. But Russia has done nothing to build on that potential. In war the Russian Mediterranean flotilla would live a short but exciting life, giving NATO southern states something to do with their navies.

Ukraine's T-64 fleet.

The Army prepares to fight in the western Pacific region. But outside of South Korea, the army prepares to be a Navy auxiliary rather than preparing its reason for existence--large-scale conventional operations, as I addressed in Military Review.

Is Germany's decision to face Russian aggression too little and too late? I don't think so. If Germany acts. I'm worried Germany has had second thoughts about finally joining the West.

The U.S. is sending another package of military assistance to Ukraine. Including a thousand of these, which are nice to block enemy retreat routes or, more usefully, interfere with enemy counter-attacks on flanks when advancing.

The U.S. may create a command in Europe to oversee the equipping and training of Ukrainian troops.

A DOD official said Russia's recent retreats in Kherson will spiral into a major defeat.

Just because a Russian recruiting video was both a fake and not reflective of reality doesn't mean American recruiting videos aren't crap. And I certainly didn't believe Russia's military reflected that video.

I understand Poland's request. But I don't think a request for $1.3 trillion reparations from Germany for World War II is helpful when we're already having trouble getting Germany to help defend NATO.

Huh: "A Greek defense startup is proposing a new autonomous surveillance tower, “Outpost,” to improve the monitoring of remote islands, a capability considered crucial in territorial disputes with neighbor Turkey." I suggested something similar for Japan.

The Taliban empire of dirt, where resistance is growing.

One of four South Korean ballistic missiles fired to send a message to North Korea exploded on launch. Does Putin want to bet his nuclear weapons works better?

Europeans certainly need to step up with help to Ukraine to avoid a trans-Atlantic rift. But if the European Union has the job, the EU has higher priorities than solving the crisis with Russia. Never confuse political "Europe" for geographic Europe.

China's path to overtaking the American economy is longer--if it can achieve that. Welcome to the party, pal. What will the CCP do? "Chinese growth will slow sharply, and the way in which it does will have profound consequences for the country, the CCP, and the global economy."

I've wondered if Putin would organize his newly conscripted troops and fling them across the northeast Ukraine border on that now-dormant front. While Russia's annexation of some Ukrainian territory will allow conscripts to be sent into southern and eastern Ukraine, they can't legally be used for my speculative purpose. That would require Putin to abandon his "special military operation" and a Russian declaration of war on Ukraine.

Biden is trying to keep Saudi Arabia from cutting oil production. The Saudis owe Biden little. Not only did Biden call Saudi Arabia a "pariah state", Biden plays footsie with the Saudi enemy mullah-run Iran and had left the Saudis hanging by ignoring the Abraham Accords. The Saudis quietly backed that initiative for Israel-Arab peace, and would have joined it with American backing. I wish Biden had succeeded. But I can hardly blame the Saudis for wanting something tangible in return.

Russia's failure to use its much larger air force to support their ground forces still stuns me. Russia clearly doesn't want to risk it. Probably because Russia would need it against a bigger more dangerous enemy. I wonder what would have happened if Russia had lots of cheap World War II models of propeller ground attack aircraft that could be lost in large numbers and replaced easily (and which would be easier for new pilots to learn to fly). Just wondering.

People that wrapped up in politics are nuts and self-destructive: "I know a lot of people who were so distressed about the election of Trump that they had to go on anxiety medication. They couldn’t sleep. It dominated their lives, their goals, their thoughts, their relationships, their conversations for four years and even to this day." I suppose I should be grateful rather than lament that they advertise their mental illness on dating sites. Tip to Instapundit. As I observed some time ago:

The Solomon Islands government is falling into China's orbit. We should work with our allies to diplomatically reverse that before we need to review this campaign.

Fair enough: "The Romanian Navy wants more minehunters to keep merchant ships safer in the Black Sea, its top service official said last week."

While China may have developed Covid-19 for weapons purposes, China clearly didn't release it as an attack if you consider how self-destructive China's pandemic policies have been. Tip to Instapundit.

Dueling artillery systems in Ukraine. Is armored tracked artillery too expensive to be useful? If you are fighting a skilled enemy using massed dumb shells, armored tracked self-propelled artillery would really help. But perhaps that isn't the scenario to prepare for?

The administration has no idea. How could we? "Why did the Biden administration decide to spend so much political capital trying, and failing, to get Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members to expand production when it could have simply expanded oil production domestically? What, exactly, is going on?"

I don't think it is that bad on a large scale--yet: "Russia’s latest military collapse happened like bankruptcy: gradually and then suddenly." You have to push even collapsed enemies to really know that. But I'm absolutely on that "gradually and then suddenly" notion, as I noted when I said the war was on the knife's edge. The war tilted to Ukraine. Is a cascade starting?

Will the replacement for the aging but still excellent Abrams tank be the AbramsX? Until then, the M1A2 SEPv4 is an option.

Is Iran an important link between China and Russia? If so, add one more problem that could be made better by the fall of Iran's mullah regime. 

U.S. forces (Delta Force plus supporting forces, I assume) launched a ground raid against ISIL in northeast Syria. Shortly thereafter America launched an airstrike in northern Syria. I assume the latter was enabled by intelligence gathered from the former.

Two Russians trying to avoid military service reached an American Island in the Bering Sea to request asylum.

The U.S. wants to stockpile weapons (and supplies?) on Taiwan, in hardened and disperse locations, so Taiwan can endure a Chinese blockade until American-led forces can break the blockade. That would be prudent. Although I think Taiwan needs tanks and artillery to drive the PLA into the sea.

An Army that already has many substitutes for victory decided to add one more: "The Army on Wednesday released its new plan describing how it intends to combat climate change built around trying to survive increasingly extreme weather while limiting the service's contribution to the problem."

Biden would rather give Saudi Arabia or Venezuela money for oil rather than Texas. It's worse than that. By canceling the XL pipeline, Biden put Canada below Texas, too.

Short explanation: Russia and Turkey cooperate to keep Libya divided to enable migrants to threaten Europe. Well, that and helping Turkey grab energy-reach seabeds.

Huh: "President Joe Biden has been explicit in vowing to commit US forces in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. The question occupying US and Taiwanese officials is the fate of the island’s flagship semiconductor industry." Well, sure.

Can Zumwalt become a dominant 21st century destroyer? No. The 3-ship class is a technology test bed with a secondary combat capability.

What the Hell is Canada's major malfunction?!

The Russian empire strikes back. And out? Will china throw that pitch?  Could be. 

The return of history: "A new headquarters unit was activated in Sembach, Germany, on Thursday to provide command and control for all Army air and missile defense forces within U.S. European Command, according to a statement from U.S. Army Europe and Africa."

I don't understand this "correction" of the record. I've long known 10th Mountain troops participated in the Battle of Mogadishu. I thought I'd written that the trained and veteran Delta Force troops weren't that happy with Rangers let alone the (relative to Delta) near-civilians in 10th Mountain. But I can't find it. I may have simply read it. But I knew it.

More than 7 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia's Lavrov says Ukraine's Zelensky has just said something to justify the invasion. Finally! Zelensky's view has nothing to do with 7 months of Russia wrecking Ukraine and killing Ukrainians; and Russia waving around nukes. Effing Russians.

We need an "off ramp" to war crimes trials: "Ukrainian officials in newly-liberated Kharkiv Oblast continue to report Russian torture chambers and other human rights abuses, further confirming ISW’s previous assessments that the atrocities uncovered in Bucha, Izyum, and elsewhere were not isolated war crimes but rather a microcosm of Russian atrocities throughout Russian-occupied areas." 

This seems like a problem: "Electric car owners have seen their rides catch fire after becoming waterlogged during Hurricane Ian and it can take hours to put the conflagrations out, a top Florida official warned Thursday." Via Instapundit.

Iranian protests against the mullah-regime are not dying out: "Schoolgirls chanted slogans, workers went on strike and street clashes erupted across Iran on Saturday, as protests over the death of Mahsa Amini entered a fourth week in defiance of a bloody crackdown."

American mortars and the development of precision. America has supplied Ukraine with 120mm mortars. Did Ukraine get precision ammunition, too? 

The Week in Pictures. 

The Russians continue to kidnap Ukrainian children from territory the Russians occupy.

Are Democratic actual fake news outlets just competing with the existing news outlets that are in practice fake?

Slovenia sent 28 modernized T-55 tanks to Ukraine. Don't laugh. 

The Biden administration just can't restrain itself from helping our enemies, can it?

Are Hezbollah and Israel edging toward war? If so, will Israel bombard Hezbollah or drive all the way to the Bekaa Valley? Still, does Hezbollah want war as little as democratic Israel wants a ground war?

The German defense minister said NATO must do more to prevent Russian aggression. Welcome to the party, pal.  

Then why the Hell did Biden speak of "Armageddon"? To be fair, I pretty much ignore what he says until all the explanations, corrections, and denials trickle out.

I can't say that Biden's rhetoric provoked Putin into invading Ukraine this year. Although if the Russians knew our diplomacy was based on the assumption that Russia would win in a matter of days, Biden certainly didn't deter Putin.

A common and visible threat works wonders for alliance unity.

The Russian truck bomb theory seems weak on the evidence. I was skeptical because Ukrainians don't seem like suicide bombers.

An inconvenient truth. Apparently. Via Instapundit.

Columbus Day is tomorrow. As I wrote last year: "The discovery of the New World by Columbus saved Western civilization: "No era transformed Western Civilization like the Age of Discovery. Before then, Europe was an economic and military weakling that had suffered centuries of defeat from Islamic empires. ... Europe was the Third World of the late medieval era. Chroniclers saw it as living in a long twilight, far removed from its golden age. It had nothing to look forward to but Judgment Day." Indeed. What will revive the West now?"

Also: "I still observe Columbus Day. Any property owner in the Americas is free to give their property to Native American tribes to do their small part to make up for any lingering guilt those people feel. But remember that the tribes and empires in the Americas in 1492 were the winners of past wars between Native American entities. The Europeans of 1492 were the victors over past Europeans and were the people who beat the past victors in the Americas. That's how the world worked, and still does all too often. Also, isn't it interesting that only America and Canada are considered illegitimate while every conqueror of indigenous peoples south of the Rio Grande River--or in the rest of the world (other than Australia and New Zealand)--get a pass from the woke? This is a useful essay."

And Now For Something Completely Different

I'm worse at what I do best. And for this gif, I feel blessed. Our little blog has always memed. And always will until the end.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Chinese Communist Party Considers China Expendable

Does analysis about what China the country/empire might do neglect that the key is what the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will do in its own interests?

Will China go to war with America because China is peaking and won't surpass America? So China must strike while its disadvantage is smallest? 

Will a ‘Peak’ China decide now is the time for war with America: Hal Brands and Michael Beckley have breaking news from 1832! Namely that it sometimes makes sense for the weak to pick a fight with the strong. No less an authority than Carl von Clausewitz affirms it. Suppose, postulates Clausewitz, a weaker contender “is in conflict with a much more powerful one and expects its position to grow weaker every year. If war is unavoidable, should it not make the most of its opportunities before its position gets still worse? In short, it should attack . . . .” [emphasis in original]

Maybe. Or maybe China goes small ball rather than risk it all against the world's strongest military power. If you want a short and glorious war you need a small target.

Still, do we know how the Chinese Communist Party judge things when the survival of the CCP monopoly on power is the highest objective? What might the CCP willingly sacrifice for that objective? 

And if the CCP needs a victorious war against a major power, the CCP has an easier target than America and our allies.

Also, while the Thucydides Trap is raised in that article as a factor pushing war, I think China and America have a pressure valve that lessens the chance of war from that factor.

Still, I'd check ammo and double the guard. I have no idea what the CCP thinks is rational. 

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

Let the Wookie Win?

America is amazingly resistant to winning and amazingly tolerant of enemies doing what it takes to win.

Oh FFS: 

Ukraine’s Wins Make Russian War More Dangerous[.]

We're really good at discounting our victories and figuring out how to give enemies credit for victories. But now we seem unwilling to wait until after an enemy loses to figure out how to credit them with a win.

Defeating Russia in Ukraine is good. Stop trying to figure out ways to call that outcome a defeat for America.  

We really need to follow Grant's advice to his generals and figure out how to defeat our enemies rather than imagining all the ways they could win despite our best efforts:

General Grant put it well to his subordinates who raised constant worries about what Lee could do when Grant's army marched:

Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.

Our enemies need to spend more time dwelling on their concerns about what America can do. 

Please note that nobody ever seems to worry that our defeats will make us more dangerous, so just let the Wookie win because he might tear your arm off.

A little more effort making Russia worry about America might do if Russia keeps trying to conquer Ukraine is in order. 

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

All Hail a EU Military-Industrial Complex!

American defense industry bad. European defense industry good. I really don't get nuance.

I honestly have little patience for "merchants of death" pieces. They seem lazy. And this one set up with the "who's winning the Ukraine war" opening is just another. With a twist. It's only against America's defense industry.

One, Russia invaded Ukraine--not American arms manufacturers. 

Two, Eisenhower said we need the military-industrial complex he warned about. 

And three, I think arms manufacturers benefit more from tension. War only risks exposing their equipment as crap and allowing competitors to beat them. 

Mostly, the author's condemnation of American military industry is an argument for a European military-industrial complex to build a European Union military. Yes, the author brings up European "strategic autonomy."  Back to the initial article:

Europe’s quest for strategic autonomy is bound to be a long one. The US has spent six times as much on research and technology as a proportion of its defence budget as European countries have. And thanks to the largesse of Congress, which earlier this year increased the US defence budget by 9% to a record high of more than US$800 billion, the American arms industry is all but guaranteed to maintain its technological advantage for many more years.

Oh. Only the American military-industrial complex is bad. A European military-industrial complex would be good. I guess the cleansing solvent of European Union nuanced sophistication is key. A European arms industry would never profit from war.

Screw that. 

If the European Union (EU) is put in charge of it, more European military power is bad. All I want to know is do we need weapons of war? It's a dangerous world, and I think so. As Eisenhower conceded. As for arms manufacturers backing NATO expansion, so what? Lots of entities supported NATO expansion. Why single out one advocate as being responsible? 

Countries joining NATO were eager to do so because they--rightly--feared Russia because of long painful experience. And the victors of the Cold War could remember the problem of the Russians on the Elbe River. Do you really think American arms manufacturers created that historically based fear? We're all better off with Russia as far east as possible.

Once more, European fanboys (and girls) just want crises to strengthen the EU's political objective of stripping the prefix from their proto-imperial project. And this latest piece in pursuit of that objective wants the "crisis" of America's military industry front and center to achieve that.

UPDATE: Are we stupid enough to push for a well-armed and politically unified EU replace the Soviet threat?

NOTE: War coverage continues here.

Oopsky

Until there is solid evidence, my working assumption is that the Nordstream Baltic Sea pipeline explosions were an entirely predictable accident.

The Germans think somebody sabotaged the Baltic Sea Nordstream pipelines from Russia:

Germany suspects the Nord Stream gas pipeline system was damaged by an act of sabotage, in what would amount to a major escalation in the standoff between Russia and Europe.

According to a German security official, the evidence points to a violent act rather than a technical issue. Swedish seismologists detected two explosions in the area on Monday, when leaks appeared almost simultaneously in the Baltic Sea.

Did Russia do it to figuratively burn their bridges behind them as a sign of resolve to inspire European fear they'll never get Russian energy back? Did Ukraine--or some other country--do it to prevent Europe from abandoning Ukraine for Russian energy? Was it an accident (via Instapundit), however odd it seems now? 

In my experience when anything involving energy-industry hydrocarbons explodes … well, sabotage isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. And honestly, when it comes to a pipeline running natural gas under Russian (non)maintenance, an explosion means that it’s Tuesday. Or Friday. Or another day of the week ending in “y”.

As another part of that first article reports:

“It’s hard to imagine that these are coincidences,” Mette Frederiksen, Denmark’s prime minister, told reporters Tuesday. “We can’t rule out sabotage.”

Coincidence? No. But is it really hard to imagine an accident under Russian control? That's not a "coincidence" issue.

Don't be too eager to yell "Remember the Maine Nordstream!" It could be the Fuck-Up Fairy. The Ukraine war has demonstrated that Russia's conventional military is in poor shape. If that societal failing leads me to suspect its nukes work no better, why would a dormant undersea pipeline be any different?

It could even be an accident from shifting and unstable munitions dumped in the Baltic Sea since World War II.

Hell, could China have done it, trying to get Russia and NATO to wreck each other and save China from Peak China?

I don't rule out Russian sabotage. But until I see solid evidence, I'm assuming an accident from poor Russian maintenance. 

UPDATE: I'm persuadable. But I'll need more than this:

Sweden’s domestic security agency said Thursday that its preliminary investigation of leaks from two Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea “has strengthened the suspicions of serious sabotage” as the cause and a prosecutor said evidence at the site has been seized.

NOTE: War coverage continues here. 

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Old

Apparently when you need to crush NATO-armed Nazis, only the Russians who retired are up to the job.

By going right to the bottom of the barrel to replace his ground forces' heavy losses, Putin telegraphs he doesn't expect these newly recalled reservists to survive his crusade against so-called Nazis.

But what will he do with them?  

Will Putin's plan be to endure Ukrainian counterattacks until winter saves his front? And then use his mobilized forces to defend what he still controls inside Ukraine? Maybe. It makes sense. 

But can Russia's ground forces hold the line through the winter? How well equipped and supplied will they be to survive in the winter, let alone fight? I've mentioned many times that armies that endure defeat can break. Will Russia's ground forces hold until spring?

One of the most important aspects of Putin’s decree last week was to extend indefinitely the temporary contracts of those at the front, including many soldiers who had been expecting to leave as their short-term contract expired, and were looking forward to their back pay. Having already been through a gruelling time, seeing many of their comrades die and be wounded, they can no longer expect early release or the pay-offs they were promised. They can only look forward to more of the same, except in colder weather. They are being joined by fearful men – just pressed into service, with little to offer and much to lose – who will be thrown into battle against determined Ukrainian forces. If this continues to go badly it will add to the demoralisation and ill-discipline at the front, leading to desertion, surrender or even mutiny.

Add in a feeling of despair at being abandoned by their leadership that doesn't care if they live or die (what else can they assume after getting old weapons and little training?), or even have food and supplies to survive in their trench, and the odds of breaking rise.

And does that possible plan to hold on to his gains make sense from Putin's point of view? Is Putin willing to admit he won't conquer Ukraine? I have no idea if he can admit that. Especially after terrifying his civilian world to mobilize hundreds of thousands of men. Usually when you increase your commitment of resources you feel pressure to increase your objectives to make them worthy of the higher commitment. The whole "we're fighting for our survival against Nazis and NATO" rhetoric puts heavy Russian sacrifices in a different light, eh? If the Russians who do the dying go along, of course.

A week ago I read this:

President Vladimir Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

If Putin only wants to hold ground, pulling back to the Dniepr River makes more sense. If Putin still has dreams of taking Odessa and linking up with Transnistria, holding territory west of the river makes sense.

I don't know if Putin is willing to risk scaling back his ambitions given the rhetoric while he still has troops to command.

And if the excuse for Russia's failures thus far have been firmly placed on the senior military leadership--regardless of the truth--then a simple solution is to put Putin in charge, at long last!

Perhaps Putin plans to organize his new masses into grandly named "Guards" or "Shock" units--Hell, issue them whatever Armata tanks can be pushed into motion--with little training, and fling them back across the now-dormant northeastern front where few Ukrainian troops are stationed since Russia's drive on Kiev failed. 

With an influx of North Korean artillery ammunition, Putin may believe he will finally achieve on a larger scale what Russia achieved in the Donbas--grinding forward behind artillery barrages. He may believe his newly raised legions will do what late-arriving Soviet Far East reserves did in 1941 to save Moscow and break Hitler's ability to win the war.

If so, a lot is riding on the lives of hundreds of thousands of poorly trained, equipped, and led Russian cannon fodder.

UPDATE: ISW: Maximalist advocacy by milbloggers for military offensives and mobilization are setting standards that Russia cannot meet. And calls by a Chechen leader for nukes after losing Lyman hurt Russian efforts to minimize the defeat. 

On the ground, Ukraine has taken ground on the northeast Kherson front while continuing to move forward in the east. Russia continues to attack on the Donetsk front.

UPDATE: Is Ukraine's advance in Kherson larger than I have assumed? And yeah, I've been discussing for many months the possibility that Russian casualties and morale could lead to a collapse of the ground forces on some section of the front. 

UPDATE: TDI doesn't think Russia lost many troops in their withdrawal from Lyman.

UPDATE: Getting the Russians retreating is important. Just two weeks ago I advised that Ukraine couldn't win the war without pushing the Russians back. Get the Russians running and they may break. Let them sit in their trenches and they may stay there no matter how bad their morale is.

UPDATE: From ISW: 

Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around Lyman and in northern Kherson Oblast over the last 24 hours. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.

Huh.

In addition, confusion over annexed provincial boundaries seems to indicate that Russia cannot simply go over to the defensive; and must attack to capture the claimed territory that Ukraine holds.

UPDATE (Tuesday): I heard on DW News that winter clothing is being rushed to Ukraine for their troops.

UPDATE (Wednesday): From the latest ISW update:

Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts on October 4. Ukrainian forces liberated several settlements on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River along the T2207 highway, forcing Russian forces to retreat to the south toward Kherson City. Ukrainian forces also continued to push south along the Dnipro River and the T0403 highway, severing two Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in northern Kherson Oblast and forcing Russians south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border toward the Beryslav area.

Can Ukraine maintain the momentum? Will there be a big skedaddle as Russian forces race each other for the last ferry ride across the Dniepr (Dnipro) River?

UPDATE (Thursday): Russia no longer has all of Ukraine's Luhansk province. 

UPDATE: Is Crimea within reach of Ukraine's army?

UPDATE (Saturday): There was an explosion on Russia's Kerch Strait bridge that damaged a traffic span. It is unknown if it was an attack or an accident. If we see another explosion we've reached the "coincidence" stage. If that link is cut, Russia will have more problems supplying Crimea and their southern front. If Ukraine takes Melitopol, Russia's situation really gets bad. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

Weekend Data Dump

Sure: "The Biden administration plans to continue nuclear negotiations with Iran despite the nation's crackdown on protesters who have demonstrated in recent days following the death of a woman in police custody." Apparently, 41 are dead already. Biden probably figures if he helps Iran suppress dissent, the mullahs will be grateful. And also, Democrats loooove the mullahs. Tip to Instapundit.

Ah, crap. My deepest sympathies to the Russians.

Japan was forced to build anti-aircraft ships just to protect Japan from nuclear missiles because local civilians were afraid of the side effects of defensive missiles ashore. 

How Russia equipped Ukraine with a lot of its abandoned armored vehicles. Also, controlling the battlefields didn't help Russia repair lost tanks because so many were catastrophic, turret-launching losses. This weakness in Russian tanks is only fully exploited by top-attack missiles, apparently. I did not know that. It is interesting that Strategypage thinks over 50,000 Russian troops have been killed in action. Is that true?

What does Armenia do when its protector, Russia, is too busy getting its ass kicked in Ukraine to protect it? And Russia is looking to Armenia's enemy, Azerbaijan, to help Russia's economy because of its Ukraine invasion. Armenia is in deep trouble without a radical rethink of its defense ties.

I'm so old I remember when Democrats were horrified that anyone would question a political opponent's patriotism.

I've heard that if Russia uses "tactical" nukes inside Ukraine that NATO air forces might respond with conventional weapons to really tear up the Russian ground forces inside Ukraine. Might it be better to get former NATO F-16 pilots and maintainers to fly a Flying Tigers-type air force with donated NATO F-16s and weapons from inside Ukraine?

What a dinosaur! '''Lethality matters most,' he said. 'When you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger,' Minihan said." The general probably doesn't even know how to use the expanding plethora of pronouns!

I'm worried about the Air Force.

So the Air Force defense is that its wokeness isn't as bad as you think--yet?

If we want SMOD, we can go back to the 1960s for what they need to do their job.

If we say that tanks are obsolete because the Russians can't use them properly, the list of weapons that don't work will be really long. Face it, as I wrote, tanks have been crucial even when blowing up all over the battlefield since they were invented. Still, this is a flashing alarm about current tank design: "It appears that the cost-benefit — the relative cost of defeating a tank vs. what a tank costs — is going against the tank." I factored that into my calculations in my linked post. And, as the article addresses, we also need to redefine what "combined arms" means for that classic means of enabling the tank to dominate ground combat.

The long road to Ukraine's Kharkov counteroffensive. It's a good start.

My question is how the Biden administration's "action without competency" will save the mullah regime: "The massive anti-government demonstrations in Iran over the death of Mahsa Amini continued unabated for the 10th day on Monday, despite authorities warning of intensified 'action without leniency'." You know why I think that.

In order to rend their garments and pull their hair about the Italian election, American leftists again have to define past nationalist socialists as "right wing." The Left should look in the mirror if it wants to see semi-fascists or even neo-fascists. I see no reason to worry about Meloni. Tip to Instapundit.

I feel bad about Pakistanis enduring those massive floods. America has helped. But Pakistan chose to screw over America in Afghanistan and has turned to China. So yeah, maybe Pakistan should take our suggestion and get China to offer debt relief to Pakistan in order to help.

Planetary defense: "A NASA spacecraft rammed an asteroid at blistering speed Monday in an unprecedented dress rehearsal for the day a killer rock menaces Earth." Tip to Instapundit.

Belt and Road 2.0 0.2, it seems.

Let's see. Russia's military is faceplanting in Ukraine. Russia's bureaucracy is faceplanting in its mobilization effort. Being unclear on the difference between mobilizing reservists and conscription of civilians is just one problem. But Russia's nuclear arsenal is okey dokey and super scary? Really?

Decades of oppressive mullah rule in Iran is undermining Shia Islam itself in Iran. Eventually that will destroy the mullah government system in Iran.

Reunited Germany is seemingly having second thoughts about joining the West.

I am constantly amazed at the vast difference between those who practically say you are a moron to think China could conquer Taiwan and those who think there is no way America could prevent China from conquering Taiwan. I assume nothing, including what "victory" for China means.

So we've got that going for us: "Five years after its commissioning, the world’s largest warship is in shape to deploy, the officer who oversees the Navy’s carrier program said last week." I'm still not happy with the Ford-class carrier.

Will the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) follow Putin's Ukraine example and work themselves up into a lather thinking that Taiwan must be conquered before Taiwan threatens the CCP itself? Could be. And the CCP might be right.

The Army ground drone armed with Javelin missiles and machine guns. That's part of a drone swarm around a manned tank I've suggested. And looked into the future for employment.

Most likely to be the first president on a sex offender registry? Tip to Treacher.

Navy surface drones. Even if operational use is unclear. I like the picture of Nomad, with its systems in shipping containers on the deck. But I would.

"Loss of strength gradient." Huh. Never heard of it. The perils of research pre-Internet. Back in college when I was thinking of a career in quantitative analysis, I had an independent study project using the Correlates of War data sets on war outomes and measures of national power to try to calculate the decrease in national power over distance. I actually threw away my data not that long ago, figuring my work was way too obsolete to be of use to me.

I've read that Putin's mobilization is targeting Moslems and other non-ethnic Russians to avoid provoking ethnic Russian resistance. But he might just be trading problems: "In the last few years, the military has quietly stopped accepting many volunteers or conscripts from Moslem areas, especially the Caucasus (particularly Chechnya and Dagestan). The wisdom of this was made clear when Russian intelligence reported that the most effective Russian Moslems who joined and fought for Islamic terrorist groups were military veterans."

Woo! I can delete my ArriveCAN app! Tip to Instapundit. I kind of had to go. Responsibilities. But I'd really rather not vacation in Canada as I used to while that Castro-wannabe Trudeau is in power. 

American friends and allies apparently are eager for training from the Army's SFABs.

Shocking news: Jihadis are rising in Afghanistan since America turned the government over to the Taliban. And even Pakistan is a target. Oops.

Much of the Ukrainian success is achieved with older Soviet-designed weapons despite the emphasis on the Western weapons shipped in.

I'm confused. The Marines reorganized to hop across islands to help the Navy fight the Chinese navy. But the new Marine Littoral Regiment has [checks notes] one anti-ship missile battery. So ... what? The Navy will scatter Marine infantry companies across the western Pacific to be stranded when the Chinese push past them? I'm fine with the intent. In the Pacific. But is the MLR organized to achieve the intent?

Russia lost a lot of troops in Ukraine's Kharkov offensive (captured and deserted). Also, as I've noted, Russia's "reserve" system is rather a farce because the reservists don't receive post-service training.

The U.S. doesn't seem to be busting a gut to get Ukraine advanced NASAM air defense systems.

Italy's new government is a threat to the unity of the European Union, which explains why so many on the left who love the idea of a "kinder and gentler" Soviet Union ruled from Brussels are upset at Italy's political shift. 

Russia announced overwhelming support in Russian-occupied Ukraine for joining Russia. Finally, we can see the Russians actually rigging a foreign election.

A prominent opponent of Italy's likely new prime minister, Meloni, scoffs that she is a threat to Italian democracy and says it is fake news to call her a fascist. Tip to Instapundit. Why on Earth do I mistrust our media which marches in lockstep calling her a neo-fascist? Basically, I don't fear continental European conservative statists any more than I fear European socialist statists. But I can't admire continental conservative statists. Still, at this point they seem like an improvement over the EU-loving leftist statists.

Is Russia setting up blocking units behind the front to shoot its troops who retreat? Enforcers are nothing odd. American Military Police behind the lines collect troops deserting their units. But shooting your own troops in the field is way beyond that. Won't the measure encourage Russian troops to surrender rather than retreat?

Networked warfare. Precision firepower and persistent surveillance requires concentrating effects from physically dispersed units. Massing effects without massing units long enough to be targets will be the key to winning and survival. And a secure and robust network linking units is vital.

A portion of Putin's mobilization decree allows the government to sweep up a million Russians rather than the immediate goal of 300,000.

I'm just going to ask. Why did we have 162 Chinese scientists working at our nuclear labs in the first place? This is a bipartisan failure. America is way too welcoming to Chinese scientists exploiting and plundering our research facilities, in general.

I'm a little surprised that Iranian drones are making a difference in Russia's war against Ukraine. But if true, isn't this humiliating for Russia? 

Is it really silly to think Russia bombed its own Nordstream pipelines to avoid legal obligations to sell natural gas to Western Europe? After all, Russia has twice now held farcical referenda in occupied Ukrainian territory to fake the legality of Russia's conquest. That said, the Russians aren't the only suspect.

Belarus remains more of a problem than an opportunity for Russia despite the subliminal Anschluss.

Speaking of Anschluss, Russia announced it would annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson provinces after the illegal and sham referenda Russia held. Will this help Putin by allowing him to send conscripts to Ukraine--now formally Russian territory? Or will this scare the Hell out of Russians who don't want to die there after being "trained" that the bullets come out of the circular opening at the front?

The United States announced a new arms package for Ukraine of HIMARS; Titan anti-drone systems; armored and other vehicles; plus communications, radar, and surveillance equipment.

Military wokeness is worrisome. Tip to Instapundit.

Biden, like Obama before him, will likely look away as Iran's mullahs crush protesters. I think Obama/Biden oddly think a stronger Iran will provide incentive for the Saudis and Israelis to negotiate with Iran, resulting in stability. It won't. But they believe that. See also the Syrian multi-war. Which is why I worry Biden will ultimately throw Ukraine under the bus to save Putin. Smart Diplomacy® is hard to watch.

Wow: "The [Ukrainian] September offensive also put about 20 percent of Russian troops in Ukraine out of action." I assume that means killed, wounded, captured, and deserted. Will the latter be rounded up and put back in action? How many of the losses are in that category?

Ukrainian partisans backed by Ukrainian special forces spearheading resistance to Russian occupation are giving Russia a bad time trying to control and use their conquests.

China is saving Iran's mullahs by buying up their oil. I assume Biden is upset. Saving the mullahs is his job.

A strategic moment for U.S.-Brazil relations? Well, Brazil is the country of the future. And always will be. But seriously, Brazil should be a partner in South America.

Taiwan could really use allied troops on the ground to deter or defeat a Chinese invasion. The author raises the Bataan surrender problem. Which is why I don't go as far as advocating deploying American troops before China invades. (Although that option is brought up in the same Military Review issue.)

Australia needs better basing for its amphibious forces. It doesn't take a lot of amphibious forces to have a strategic effect in the South China Sea.

FFS (via instapundit): "white women with expendable income to waste can now pay people to come to their house, eat their food, and tell them how racist they are, and they can do it all on television." The institutional stupidity is horrifying. Liberals playing a game of "pin the tale on the honky." You thought I was joking?

I'd protect critical infrastructure, but this sounds about right: "'I find it hard to imagine that an adversary would simultaneously believe that an EMP attack would be simultaneously catastrophic and that it wouldn’t warrant a catastrophically large response,' he added. 'This seems to imagine a very strange adversary.'"

Well, good: "A decade after the services first allowed gay and lesbian troops to serve openly, a report from the Joint Staff found that concerns about combat effectiveness and unit cohesion were basically unfounded." Good for combat effectiveness and unit cohesion. And good for patriotic gay and lesbian troops. But this doesn't mean it wouldn't have been a problem 30 years ago. Society changes.

All of our major warships, including our new Constellation frigates, will have SPY-6 radar. Which will allow them all to target ballistic missiles.

The European Union doesn't like conservative national governments. Those countries need to get out of the proto-imperial EU while they are still sovereign countries and not imperial provinces. Fortunately, the coercive power of 10,000 cheese regulations is waning. So yeah, Italy's relationship with America will naturally improve trans-Atlantic relations. Unless our president insists on calling the new Italian leaders semi-fascist, of course. The EU doesn't like America. And we shouldn't like the EU. I liked the EU more when it was the European Economic Community.

Is Iran going through a nutball succession?

Russia should end the war against Ukraine soon (and China should agree) before NATO countries spend the money to build the infrastructure to sustain a long major war.

Russia has stripped its border with the Baltic states and Finland to feed troops and equipment into the Ukraine front. So much for the claimed NATO threat. More here. Kaliningrad is included in the stripping.

Treaty "ally".

I find it odd that some American conservatives say Ukraine isn't a real country worthy of our support. I guess I'm relieved the French didn't feel that way when ethnic English revolted against King George III in 1775.

Yes, Taiwan has geography that makes it difficult to invade. If defended. And the post paints a far rosier picture of Taiwan's reserve system than I've read. And what if China's initial military objective is just to get a bridgehead? Isn't that less difficult than conquering Taiwan?

Remember, if Putin is pushed out of power his replacement may be bad in different ways. But as long as the replacement admits defeat and leaves Ukraine, I guess that's a problem for Russians to deal with.

Putin is counting on winter, Hungary, and Italy? I really don't think the latter two are going to stop the West from supporting Ukraine. Italy won't be nearly that sympathetic to Russia. As for winter, Russian troops might be eager to escape Russian logistics by surrendering. Especially if Ukraine can mount a winter offensive in the south. Are we helping Ukraine prepare for that?

I signed up for a DALL-E account. But attempts to create something about Biden or Putin are violations of their creation policy. I guess I can sort of understand it. But are ordinary people given fewer protections?

Several people purchased my e-booklet since my 20th anniversary post. Thank you. I know the formatting sucks. But your support is appreciated.

Fascinating:

 

If Putin is crazy enough to use chemical or nuclear weapons to hold on to his conquests, if it works he's smart enough to conquer more and make the same kind of threat again. Why wouldn't he? As if any distance from Moscow is a safe buffer.

I keep reading about how China is doomed if it invades because Taiwan will resist fiercely. I'm not so sure about that purported resolve: "A vast majority of polled Taiwanese (78 percent) in March said they had little to no confidence in Taiwan’s ability to defend itself, according to a survey from the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation." And without nearly enough enlisted and commissioned reservist leaders, how can the army fully fight? And the army is key--so being army-centric is absolutely correct. Taiwan can't build a navy or air force big enough to defeat the Chinese.

I'm not sure what the angst over Russia's annexation of conquered Ukrainian territory is based on. Putin already made it clear he thinks the entire country is illegitimate and rightfully part of Russia. So now he said parts of Ukraine are now formally Russian? Huh. Russians will be no more willing to fight and die in Ukraine now than they were before annexation.

Bias? What bias?

 

I've been using "referenda" as the plural for "referendum" when mentioning the fake votes Russia has held in occupied Ukrainian territory. While it is apparently acceptable, it is not really correct. So going forward I will use "referendums". Important stuff, I know.

Democrats accuse political opponents of being Hitler or Mussolini so often that I have to believe Democrats actually think Hitler and Mussolini are known for mean tweets and refusing to use alternative pronouns.

Ukraine's domestically built drones.

One thing that puzzles me is that while Democrats oddly were terrified that Trump would start a nuclear war with North Korea (which still isn't likely to have anything that can reach America); I don't hear of Democrats even worried that Biden might start a nuclear war with Russia (even if I wonder how many work).

Iranian protests have expanded. And leadership remains uncertain. Is this significant? Don't know.

Is Earth too difficult for aliens to easily detect? Tip to Instapundit.

Should Australia acquire SSBNs rather than SSNs? I'm skeptical of that. Although over time the healing power of "and" might become the answer.

If NATO tells Russia that NATO will intervene on the side of Ukraine if Russia uses nuclear weapons, by inference Russia is getting the assurance that short of Russia using nukes, NATO won't do more than supply Ukraine with weapons, logistics, diplomatic, and intelligence support. If Russian leaders truly fear NATO, wouldn't that be a major achievement in their minds?

Russia's use of S-300 air defense missiles for ground attack missions. I recall that prior to the Iraq War that Saddam was converting old Soviet anti-aircraft missiles to banned surface-to-surface missiles.

The 4-star Power Point Rangers overrunning the Pentagon. Perhaps if we had fewer, those remaining would be soldiers rather than letting so many become woke or status quo politicians because they have too much time on their hands. As I've mentioned before, I don't trust Macgregor on foreign policy issues. But military issues? He's earned my respect on that.

Turkey's 4-decade war against Kurdish rebels based in Iraq continues.

I think people in my city own more Ukraine flags than American flags. Just an observation.

Civilization is fragile. Too many think civilization is a constant fact immune to prying bits of it apart for their own narrow emotional needs.

The Chinese Communist Party debated its future policy in the 1980s. The CCP suppressed that debate: "Instead, the CCP told a triumphant story of wise, resolute decisions propelling China’s rise on the single correct path taken, bolstering its legitimacy." Tienanmen Square was the obliteration of the human witnesses to the debate and a warning to others. And that suppression undermines opposition to the path chosen by the CCP. Westerners go along with that by their odd claim that the Chinese are seemingly genetically able to plan centuries ahead. LOL!

A final thought on Putin's speech. Putin calling his invasion of Ukraine a war to overturn the Western system is nonsense. I suspect it is a combination of needing a bigger goal than the Donetsk to justify Russia's huge losses; and the need to justify and rally Russians around the need to mobilize manpower to defeat that threat. Russia needs the Western economic system to sell its raw materials and the Western interstate system that amplifies Russian diplomatic power with a permanent UN Security Council seat.

Propaganda shut down American special forces. Our enemy didn't need to defeat our best fighters in direct combat. Any more than our enemies needed to destroy our aircraft or artillery to degrade that advantage. We really need to decide if we are fighting wars or popularity contests. Take care to avoid civilian casualties. But don't make that the objective of our military operations.

And a belated Happy Fiscal New Year, of course.

And Now For Something Completely Different

You've got the meming in you. Don't let go. You've got the meming in you. One post left. This world is gonna pull through.