A Russian Nuclear Gamble?

Can Russia escalate to nuclear weapons use with any confidence?

Does Russia plan to use nukes in a war? Assuming the use of nukes will scare enemies into accepting peace on Russian terms? 

[In] 2009, ITAR-TASS, the country’s main official news agency, stated that Russia probably had between 15,000 and 17,000 nuclear weapons. The decay of conventional forces in the decades after the dissolution of the Soviet Union made nuclear weapons more important to Russia’s leaders.

Russia's conventional weakness forces them to rely on nukes. But how do we know their nukes are more well maintained and capable than their conventional military? 

I have serious doubts about whether anything other than a tiny fraction of Russia's 16,000 or so nuclear warheads work. FFS, the Russians apparently weren't able to maintain the tires on their stored military vehicles. 

Indeed, even if Russia knows their nuclear deterrent isn't reliable enough to risk using and exposing it as a paper tiger, Russia might threaten to use them even more strongly, as they've done in the past.

If Putin plans to "escalate [to nukes] to de-escalate [a conventional war after making gains or to avoid defeat]", can he pull it off? Would Russia risk firing a nuke and having it fizzle or hit on their own territory by mistake?

Mind you, I wouldn't invade Russia for any number of non-nuclear reasons. We have no interest in that despite Putin's paranoia. But even if nukes were the only issue and Russia's nukes were shaky, I would not invade. If Russia fired thousands at us, I assume some small fraction will reach us and detonate. And that small fraction would be devastating.

But I think we can lean a little more forward in opposing Russia--in our support of Ukraine, for a relevant example--without unduly worrying that Russia will let the nukes fly. 

UPDATE: This is a timely note of sanity:

Several Putin comments about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine caused a commotion in the military high-command and Putin’s senior advisors. Apparently, Putin’s ability to order the use of nukes has been diminished.

I've mentioned that Russians might not be cool with the nuclear threats.

NOTE: War updates continue on this post.

The Winter War of 2022 Resets

Will Russia stop digging the hole it is in before the digging never stops? Trenches* and graves are no way to restore Russian glory. Russia has failed to win the war it started. It is retreating from Kiev. Can Russia regroup to win the war it now wants in the Donbas?

Russia's failure to win the decisive battle at Kiev in 3 days and mop up in two weeks is built on two pillars: Russian failures and Ukrainian successes.

Ukraine has fought harder and more effectively than Russia expected. Ukraine gained the time to mobilize reserves--and the people themselves. And NATO has supplied and supported Ukraine much more strongly than Russia expected.

Russia had a plan for a victory parade and not an invasion plan. Russian logistics were nearly non-existent. Russian communications, and hence command and control were poor. Russia's casualties gutted their invasion units. Russia's air force failed to support the ground forces. Russia's precision weapons were in short supply and even their dumb ammunition stocks are old. Russia's failures exceeded even my expectations a week before the war:

Putin pines for Soviet glory days. Putin's threats to use his military give Russia more stature than its status as a regional military power with continents-spanning defense needs justify. Just like Mussolini enjoyed--until he used his military and exposed it for the sham it was. ...

Putin has made progress in modernizing the Russian military since its poor performance in Georgia in 2008. But modernization is narrowly achieved. And a lot of this technology is smoke and mirrors. Putin can use his military if fighting is brief or limited in scope, against a minor foe.

Indeed, even if Russia's military is adequate to get a victory, a major war could wreck the army and destroy the progress Russia has made since 2008.

The result has been a demoralized Russian army suffering huge casualties that lacks replacements or reinforcements; and an energized Ukrainian population. There is an opening for Ukraine to counter-attack and inflict a major battlefield defeat on the Russians while they reel from the failures. If Ukraine has the units, weapons, and supplies to exploit this moment.

But all that could change if Ukraine can't exploit their edge by ending the war, either after a major victorious counter-attack or simply at the negotiating table before Russia can fix their failures.

Russia could revise their war plan to match means and ends. Russia could fix their logistics and communications. Russia could draft and recruit replacements from the reserves and from abroad. Russia's air force and artillery could work out ways to provide effective direct support to combat units. Those measures could restore Russian troop morale sufficiently to be good enough to push forward behind massive fire support.

And the mud will eventually end. Simply freeing Russian units from the roads will add problems for Ukraine's defense effort.

These changes could inflict more casualties and defeats on Ukrainian forces and reduce the high morale of the Ukrainians. That could make the mostly NATO military supply effort inadequate to sustain the Ukrainians.

This is the situation yesterday per the Sunday ISW update as the Russians admit defeat around Kiev:

So if Russia girds itself for a long war to apply its larger population and GDP advantage compared to Ukraine, NATO must accept that the war may be long:

The belief that a war will be short, even after it has commenced, is common throughout history. The men rushing to volunteer in August 1914 famously thought it would all be over by Christmas. As Hitler’s armies swept across the USSR in the summer of 1941, they carried no equipment for a Russian winter. In each generation, we tend to assume that the latest advances in the destructive potential of weapons mean wars cannot be sustained for long and must of necessity be brief.

Yet the awful reality is that wars simply become more destructive, rather than shorter. Nations find new ways of sustaining long conflicts that astonish each other. In 1793, Britain and France had no idea that the war being declared would last, with brief interruptions, for 22 years: France would mobilise its manpower to an extent never anticipated, and Britain would surprise Napoleon with its ability to finance the long struggle to defeat him.

I've asked if any major war is over by Christmas; and noted how the latest weapons and ammunition run out leaving combatants to make do with what they can get in volume. 

The author warning about a long war rightly says NATO must make sure Russia does not win that struggle:

To sustain a long war, a nation needs depths of resources and resilience of a different nature and scale to fighting even frequent short wars. There are perhaps four fundamental requirements: a population that is motivated and unified in making sacrifices; a financial and economic system that can continue indefinitely; secure and multiple lines of supply; and armaments that deny the enemy the advantages it might possess in a more protracted conflict. Ukrainians do not lack the first of these. Their morale and spirit inspire the free world and are far superior to those of their invaders. But they need more help with the other three.

Russia has been embarrassed by failing to win its invasion campaign quickly. But that is not enough. Russia must lose the war. Will NATO sustain Ukraine when the blue and yellow flags in the West fade? Will the West pressure Ukraine to end the war without clear victory?

Or will the prospect of NATO resolve convince Russia to cut its losses before the war reaches a third season with no end in sight?

*Mind you, the force-to-space ratio is too low for a continuous front line of dense trench systems that existed on the Western Front in World War I. But where movement stops, digging begins.

UPDATE: It seems highly likely that Russian forces committed atrocities around Bucha when they occupied it. But I'll want evidence of mass atrocities. Mass graves may or may not indicate that. And obviously, simply invading Ukraine with no civilian dead should rally the West against Russia.

UPDATE: An informative post. Most interesting to me is Ukraine's ability to use drones with night vision to spot for artillery. Which was used to target Russian supply convoys thinking night moves were safe. This capability was a surprise to the Russians. Also, NATO AWACS planes flying inside NATO territory are giving Ukrainians a real-time view of much of the air space.

UPDATE: So we are back to regime change? "US President Biden has again labelled Vladimir Putin a war criminal – and has called for the Russian leader to face trial over the killings in Bucha." WTF?

UPDATE: More on the potential transfer of NATO T-72s to Ukraine: "Regardless of where the tanks come from or how they get into Ukrainian hands, fresh armor could form the backbone of an eventual counteroffensive to take back territory in the south and east or blunt a looming Russian attack in those regions." Tanks can be killed. It has always been so. But nothing yet matches their mobile protected firepower for going on offense.

UPDATE: This answered a couple questions I had on composition of Russia's total force committed and the number of wounded that are out of action:

Russian losses to date are high. NATO estimates that Russia has lost between 7,000 and 15,000 soldiers. Wounded who cannot rapidly return to duty generally number about twice the number of dead. That would mean that Russia has lost between 21,000 and 45,000 troops in four weeks of conflict. To put that into perspective, Russia reported 14,400 killed through 10 years of war in Afghanistan.

The initial invasion force numbered about 190,000 troops. However, that included militias in the Donbas and security forces (Rosgvardiya) for occupation. Ground combat troops numbered about 140,000. Thus, Russia may have lost about a quarter of its initial combat force.

That's a lot of casualties. Green newly trained replacements won't restore the force to what it was on D-Day. And reservists at this point aren't much better, if that. Once out of the military, military skills disappear faster than you might think. The author also notes that Russia is sensitive to losses. I agree. But we sure haven't seen signs of that sensitivity yet.

UPDATE: The latest ISW update. Basically, Russia is struggling to replace soldier and officer casualties; the Russians are bugging out of northern Ukraine, west of Kharkiv, with the units of uncertain combat capability; Russian attacks south of Kharkiv may be able to envelope some of the Ukrainian units on the Donbas front; the Russian Donbas front units seem ineffective; and the Russian southern forces are trying to hold in the west while still trying to take Mariupol, whose defenders are still hanging on.

Ukraine will have some unit freed for other fronts after they secure Ukraine's borders in the north in the wake of Russia's retreat. Would Ukraine attack into Russia for the psychological effect? I'd rather have excess Ukrainian units sent to the Kherson front for a counter-offensive. And I do worry about Ukrainian forces too far east in the Donbas region.

UPDATE: (Tuesday): Invasion 2.0: "The Russian strategy has obviously changed, with most of the troops pulled out of northern Ukraine and those still capable being sent to the Donbas, where another offensive is being planned. The new Russian troops arriving there are not confident or eager to take on the numerous, determined and effective Ukrainian defenders. Russia launched an offensive in Donbas at the same time troops were moving towards Kyiv and hit a solid wall of defenses."

UPDATE: Indeed: "NATO intel specialists were surprised at the poor performance of Russian commanders, troops and equipment. Part of this is due to overestimating the value of combat experience Russian pilots and commanders gained in Syria and Libya against Ukrainian forces." I had my doubts about that experience. 

UPDATE: As access to Bucha increases, the indications of the reality of the Butchers of Bucha increases, even if it isn't documented evidence of widespread atrocities. That may change, of course.

UPDATE: Ukraine will get a small number of more powerful Switchblade "suicide" drones that can knock out tanks. So thank you to Ukraine for field testing the weapon.

UPDATE: Ukraine punched Russia in the mouth and derailed Putin's plan for a short and glorious war. And resuming the Russian offensive even on a more narrow front will be no easy thing to prepare: 

Having been forced out of the north of Ukraine since the botched invasion started on Feb 24, Russian commanders will need time to assess their operational failures and devise a new plan.

They may also need to build new military structures and conduct additional training, all of which could take weeks.

Some units will need to be completely reorganised, either by joining together forces with different roles, or by combining depleted units.

Other units will need time to rest and repair soldiers and equipment badly damaged in the first weeks of combat.

Can Ukraine take advantage of Russia's disorganization and launch a multi-brigade counter-offensive in the south that puts Crimea at risk and bags a good number of Russian troops in the Kherson region?

UPDATE: Cannon fodder: "Military conscripts in the Russian-backed Donbas region have been sent into front-line combat against Ukrainian troops with no training, little food and water, and inadequate weapons, six people in the separatist province told Reuters." Keep that up and Russian-occupied Donbas will revolt against Putin.

UPDATE: Putin is stuck in his war, unable to get out yet unable to go back in time and get a glorious rapid victory. A lot of things can happen and the war could go either way. But: "The buzzards are circling. So he must continue to fight until he is forced out and someone else not responsible for the disaster takes over and blames it all on Putin. I think that this can’t end until Putin is pulled from the game." Adjust your pucker factor accordingly.

UPDATE: The latest ISW update:

Russia is ending its northern thrusts into Ukraine but it will be quite some time before those units can effectively reinforce the southern fronts from Kharkiv to Kherson. There is still organized Ukrainian resistance holding out in Mariupol despite heavy Russian bombardment.

UPDATE (Wednesday): For Syrian troops, the Russians will pay "$1,200 a month plus a $2,000 bonus if they complete their six-months and even larger payments if they are badly wounded and disabled or killed. The Assads take a large chunk of this as a commission but the volunteers are making a lot more than the $100 a month they get from the army or the more successful militias." Nothing says "liberation from Nazis" like putting foreign mercenaries in charge of occupying your town.

UPDATE: The Czech Republic sent 5 tanks and 5 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine. The flow begins from the new NATO countries that used to be vassals of the USSR..

UPDATE: An interesting wargame of a war that stretches on a year: "With neither side able to achieve decisive military effects in the offense, without exception, the combined teams predicted that without a negotiated settlement the war is headed toward an indefinite stalemate." All the more reason for Ukraine to seek an opportunity now while Russia is regrouping to inflict a battlefield defeat on a major Russian force. North Ukraine was a victory for territory. Ukraine needs to bag a major Russian ground force to push a negotiated end to the war that gets Russia out.

UPDATE: Russia continues to bombard Mariupol.

UPDATE: The Telegraph also reported on the Czech armor donation. It is interesting to see that the newspaper said it was the first NATO country to ship tanks. The BBC report I quoted above said it was the first EU country to send tanks. Fascinating, no?

UPDATE: What do Russians really think about waging war on Ukraine?

UPDATE: The war that was supposed to last 72 hours could now go on for years? I'm just saying we paid too much for the computer models the Pentagon relies on. 

UPDATE: This would be a meaningful request if our government would open the spigots to American fossil fuel production rather than our strategic petroleum reserve: "Western sanctions against Russia must expand to include oil and gas sales, members of the US Congress told US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday."

UPDATE: And yet Putin withdrew from Kiev, claiming that the operation went exactly as planned: "Kyiv was a Russian defeat for the ages. The fight started poorly for the invaders and went downhill from there." 

Sure, exactly as intended except for a few hiccups: "The Russians were ill-prepared for Ukrainian resistance, proved incapable of adjusting to setbacks, failed to effectively combine air and land operations, misjudged Ukraine’s ability to defend its skies, and bungled basic military functions like planning and executing the movement of supplies."

UPDATE: The latest ISW report. Lord knows what is going on in Mariupol other than Russia is attacking and Ukrainians are apparently still fighting there. The Russians pulled out of northern Ukraine. Which simplifies Russia's job because conscripts can be sent to hold the front line inside Russia. Russia is failing to generate offensive power in the south. Russia will need to time to refit damaged units pulled from northern Ukraine. And Ukraine has successfully counterattacked toward Kherson.

UPDATE (Thursday): The Senate passed its bill to help Ukraine, the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022. It will no doubt pass and be signed.

UPDATE: The head of NATO is urging members to send major weapon systems to Ukraine now.

UPDATE: How many of the rest are fresh? "Western officials say 29 of Russia’s original 125 battalion tactical groups have been rendered 'not combat effective'."

UPDATE: Russia is firing artillery and gearing up to attack in the Donbas. But what is Russia pushing forward? Are the additional units too battered to be useful? 

And this answers my question of whether Ukraine was building fallback defense lines. It seems so: "Ukraine has already lost ground to Russia. But they are digging in for the fight. As we travelled east towards the frontline we saw new defensive positions and trenches being dug." That implies new positions before the group reached the frontline. 

I'll repeat one method of stalling an enemy offensive is to step back out of range of enemy artillery to new defensive positions. This delays the enemy as they have to advance and reset their units and supplies for a renewed attack.

It also provides opportunities to launch limited counter-attacks on the Russian forces advancing, whether with troops or just artillery fire.

UPDATE: Ukraine can win the war and humiliate Putin, but Ukraine probably can't get everything back from Russia. And even Russia's need to abandon hopes of conquest has a dark side: 

Putin is no longer fighting to win over Ukraine and force it back intact into the Russian federation. He is no longer wary of eradicating infrastructure that he once felt would once again become valuable Russian assets. 

Instead, Russia is going full Carthaginian peace in Eastern Ukraine — leveling cities, murdering civilians, and destroying an entire modern society for generations.

I did worry about that option before the war. 

UPDATE: As Russia prepared to advance in the Donbas, Ukraine also prepares according to is foreign minister:

“[It] will remind you of the Second World War, with large operations manoeuvres, the involvement of thousands of tanks, armoured vehicles, planes, artillery.” 

Russia may well advance and cut off Ukrainian forces in the eastern part of the Donbas. But those pincers can be broken off with prompt Ukrainian counterattacks. We shall see how much of Ukraine's military is freed from duty in the north. 

UPDATE: It increasingly looks like Russian troops are guilty of widespread atrocities where they occupied Ukrainian territory. Bad things happen in war. But this seems way more than that. Perhaps Russians themselves will recoil from this and try Putin and the responsible commanders and troops for war crimes. How else does Russia recover from this invasion compounded by war crimes?

UPDATE: Will Russia (whether Putin or whoever replaces him) accept a peace deal that let's Russia keep Crimea and the Donbas plus face-saving details before NATO arms Ukraine with more weapons to enable a Ukrainian counter-offensive? Good question. But how much time does Ukraine have for such an operation before Russia can refit its battalion tactical groups savaged in northern Ukraine?

UPDATE: As Ukraine focuses on the Donbas, does this conceal a major effort aimed at Kherson and points east?

UPDATE: The latest ISW update. Mariupol continues to fall to the Russian assault. Time is running out. The Russians are preparing to launch offensives in the Donbas but additional units that were pulled out of the north that haven't been refit aren't going to be of much help. Russian and Belarusian units are trying to keep Ukrainian units pinned around Kiev, but are unlikely to invade again. So Ukraine will be able to shift forces from Kiev to the east. Russia will need to encircle the Ukrainians holding the front line in Donbas to defeat them. The Kherson front seems quiet.

Apparently, Russia is recalling conscripts discharged since 2012 and giving them three-month courses to restore their training. Which is pretty much starting from scratch. Extending recalls that far back can't be going over well on the home front, eh?

UPDATE (Friday): The Donbas front:

I don't know why the text always disappears when I copy their maps. But the red shades are obviously Russian control. The red arrows are directions of Russian effort. If those efforts succeed, Ukrainian forces in the eastern salient would be isolated and captured or dispersed if not rescued--or if they can't break out. The orange on the Sea of Azov is Mariupol, where some Ukrainian forces still hold out.

UPDATE: Russia is reportedly forcing Ukranians in occupied territory to fight for Russia: "Lyudmila Denisova, the ombudsman for Ukraine, said that 'on the outskirts of Mariupol, which is temporarily controlled by Russian militants, the occupiers began forcibly mobilising men'."

UPDATE: Well, sure:

The Kremlin said on Friday that what it calls Russia's "special operation" in Ukraine could end in the "foreseeable future" since its aims were being achieved and work was being carried out by both the Russian military and Russian peace negotiators.

Russia may certainly achieve something that they can call their objective all along. And then declare the war over--whether or not anyone else but Belarus goes along with that. Or the Ukrainians might inflict a defeat on Russia's army that stuns Russia into ending the war in that future.

UPDATE: I would not isolate Russia from the UN. Contact must be maintained. Remember, just because Zelensky asks for something doesn't mean it is a good idea.

UPDATE: Slovakia has decided to send S-300 air defense missile systems to Ukraine. American Patriot missiles are taking up the air defense duty in Slovakia. Germany and the Netherlands also sent Patriots.

UPDATE: Russia now has a single commander for the entire invasion--the Southern Military District commander.

UPDATE: This sounds like enough for past losses with more for future losses: "Russia is ramping up its war effort in eastern Ukraine, and a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Friday that Moscow could look to recruit as many as 60,000 soldiers to join the fight." 

What will Russia do until those troops can be gathered and trained? Send the gutted units from the failed offensive against Kiev back into battle on the Donbas front?  Or will the current units on the Donbas front continue to send in small attacks that damage those units but at least keep the Ukrainians too busy to pull out of the line and refit?

Or could Putin's political position withstand a lengthy "sitzkrieg" of little more than bombardment while the Russian army rests and refits its maneuver units and brings in reinforcements?

UPDATE: While Russia builds up to resume the offensive on a large scale on the Donbas front, I'd like to see Ukraine launch a major counter-attack on the Kherson front. But I don't know if Ukraine has the reserves for that.

UPDATE: The latest ISW update:

Ukrainian forces retain control of defensive positions in eastern and southwestern Mariupol, despite Russian claims to have captured most of the city. ISW was able to confirm the specific locations of ongoing Russian assaults on April 8 for the first time in several days. Russian forces continue to attempt to regroup and redeploy units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine to support an offensive in eastern Ukraine, but these units are unlikely to enable a Russian breakthrough and face poor morale. Russian forces along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis did not make any territorial gains in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian counterattacks toward Kherson continue to threaten Russian positions around the city.

The defenders of Mariupol are tough bastards.

UPDATE (Saturday): I always thought the mine ban was stupid: "Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley argued Thursday that land mines have been critical for Ukrainian forces' success against Russian armored vehicles." Bad actors who sow them indiscriminately without recording positions weren't stopped. Only those least likely to mis-use mines were stopped. Taking military advice from a princess was stupid.

UPDATE: I assume Russia is taking so many Mariupol residents to "filtration" camps inside Russia is to find reliable turncoats to staff a pro-Russian government and police force. Taking biometrics is insurance against somebody turning against Russia when in power. And for the rest, it will be easier to suppress insurgency.

UPDATE: There will be a big campaign in the east. Russia seems to promise that and Ukraine keeps saying it is getting ready for it. I hope getting ready for the east conceals Ukrainian preparations to go on offense in the south to liberate Kherson and points east, re-blocking Crimea, and possibly rescuing the holdouts at Mariupol. I'd rather that city be Rorke's Drift than the Alamo.

UPDATE: On a day when little significant happened in the campaign (as opposed to people dying, which is significant in a different way), ISW offers a review of how they assess the war. My few updates reflect the little significant action. Read it all. 

I'll just highlight that ISW rejects the US DOD position that Russia has lost 15-20 percent of its combat power. I've noted my rejection of that kind of statement as too simplistic (see this post, search "Russian military power" for the update). The article raises other issues that I've commented on. The Russian army is currently in bad shape.

Who knows what shape Ukraine's is, however. I sure don't know, other than that morale is good.

UPDATE (Sunday): Ukraine's Western and domestic anti-tank missiles and rockets.

UPDATE: A Russian attack on the Donbas front will require lots of Russian artillery to break through the Ukrainian defenders. But will Russia have the ammunition supply to do that for long? And doesn't it make more sense for the Russians to advance south from Kharkiv and north from the Mariupol region to cut off the Donbas front defenders?

UPDATE: The latest ISW update states: "Ukrainian troops may attempt larger-scale attacks toward Kherson city itself in the coming weeks." That's certainly what I've been expecting.

NOTE: War updates continue at this post.

Weekend Data Dump

War coverage continues at the Winter War of 2022 link.

To be fair, firmly in vassal status to China is a "strong" relationship: "Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday said Russia's relations with China were at their strongest level ever[.]"

Pouncing: "Emmanuel Macron led a chorus of disapproval following the US president’s comments, in which he called Vladimir Putin a 'butcher' and insisted the Russian premier 'cannot remain in power'." Do not become confused. Macron wants to exploit this war to weaken NATO for his own glory. Also:

Putin claims to be so worried about Nazis that he must invade to get rid of them. Aaannd Putin sponsors the far right in Europe. Is that what a "self-licking ice cream cone" means?

India's accidental launch of a nuclear-capable missile into Pakistan risked nuclear war. I mentioned the risk of escalation this type of accident poses. Short flight time is a problem. Of course, maybe this exposes that Pakistan has no command and control for its nuclear forces and little ability to see incoming missiles. Adjust your pucker factor, accordingly. The bright side is that China is the target for most of India's nukes because India has conventional military superiority over Pakistan.

Is Ukraine's success in destroying Russian tanks a vindication of the Marine Corps' decision to get rid of its tanks? I say "no," unless the Marines planned to fight so poorly that an enemy could exploit those weaknesses. To be clear, the Marines don't need tanks for their role in the Pacific, which is helping the Navy sink Chinese ships. Beyond that, not so fast. The Marines may even be getting rid of tanks and artillery in order to avoid being a "second army" in large-scale conventional operations.

Because I can:

Yes, I refrain from trying to explain Putin's actions with psychological diagnoses made from afar. If it is so fun and useful, now do Biden.

The Army is looking for money from Congress to ramp up Stinger and Javelin production. That seems prudent.

Watching China slowly steal your territorial waters will do that: "The Philippines and the United States kicked off on Monday their biggest joint military drills since 2015, underscoring improved defence ties after President Rodrigo Duterte had scaled back some earlier war games to pursue warmer ties with China."

This was ... odd. 

As long as Russia is fully occupied fighting Ukraine, Poland is pretty safe.

The Navy ordered six Navy EA-18 Growler electronic countermeasure planes to Germany. If memory serves me, the Navy has the joint ECM mission since the Air Force retired its ECM planes. (Phantom Wild Weasels? Was that the last Air Force plane for that mission?) Stealth planes penetrate air defenses with their stealth and own ECM. Non-stealthy planes need help. Hence the EA-18s.

Even after generations of spewing Jew-hating propaganda, hating Jews isn't enough to prop up Palestinian rulers: "Polls show both Hamas and Fatah (which runs the West Bank) are seen as unfit to rule by over 70 percent of Palestinians."

Until you appreciate Democratic love for mullah-run Iran, this makes no sense: "Israel, along with Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf Oil states are very angry with the Americans because the U.S. is not only offering Iran a revival of the 2015 sanctions treaty, but also a modification of the terms to make it easier for Iran to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Billions of dollars in frozen accounts would be returned to Iran and if the Americans went ahead with taking the Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and its Quds Force off the list of known terrorists there would be a lot more violence in the Middle East."

I did not know this took place: "Russian troops are now patrolling the Syria-Israel border along the Golan Heights. ... This is part of an effort to enable the Syrian government, still a dictatorship run by a Syrian Shia Arab Assad group, to abandon decades of dependence on Iranian military and diplomatic support."

Seriously, Air Force? "The American F-35 stealth fighter is very popular with pilots, both American and foreign, who fly it. Despite that the aircraft continues to have readiness problems because of unexpected problems with the F135 engine that powers each aircraft. These problems were predicted after the air force decided to save money by only having one source for the engine." Lack of an alternate engine supplier was unsettling to me. Although I didn't predict problems. Not quite my lane. But my worry was justified. Also, ALIS and software updates are problems. These issues are in the Air Force's lane. This will all be worked out, eventually. But it costs money.

This is BS. The Army needs to focus on and excel at winning wars on the battlefield. We have an entire huge civilian government, too. Let the other parts do the non-fighting things to "win without fighting." It's early in the day, but I need a drink already.

It is a little disturbing that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already forced America to revise our national defense strategy. Strategy is long term and big picture. It already should have taken Russia' potential to launch a war in Europe into account. If it didn't, it is not a strategy document. It is a procurement justification document.

Wow, the active duty Army will shrink to a size that's pretty much where it was right before September 11, 2001. But it "plans" to expand end strength within 5 years. Good luck with that. Well, something has to give and it won't be the Navy or Air Force.

I've long been in favor of staying in Europe, contrary to whatever Trump might have done in a second term (he seemed more focused on getting out of Germany). But this is nonsense: "The Trump-era strategy effectively abandoned the idea of a U.S. military that could fight in two major regional wars simultaneously in favor of squarely putting the U.S. focus on a possible future conflict with China." Trump did not abandon the two-war strategy. It has been at least 25 years since America had a "two-war" strategy. One of my earliest publications argued about the danger of abandoning that standard while adopting the amazingly worded ability to fight two wars "nearly simultaneously."

From the "Why Wasn't There a Sense of Urgency Much Earlier" files: "As tensions ramp up in the Pacific, the Missile Defense Agency is stepping up its funding for protecting U.S. forces in Guam, according to agency officials."

Let's at least hope the Navy can revive all those ships it plans to retire as it expands shrinks to meet the China threat.

President Biden's commitment to supply natural gas to Europe was not made in consultation with the actual liquefied natural gas industry. Oh well. It was a nice propaganda statement to look like he is taking concrete action. Tip to Instapundit. 

The Marines won't get their first light amphibious warship until 2025. You know what I think of them. 

Canada's military has reverted to something more able to take on trucker protests. But I will say Canada stepped up by buying the F-35. That will help North American air defense.

Our media sucks, and I want to scrap it and sell it for usable parts. Let the vast majority who are untrustworthy and frankly mediocre jerks go to work directly for their political party of choice--or learn to code. 

Fraud like this destroys faith in government and a willingness to play by the rules: "They came into their riches by participating in what experts say is the theft of as much as $80 billion — or about 10 percent — of the $800 billion handed out in a Covid relief plan known as the Paycheck Protection Program, or PPP." And that's just the start. Why act lawfully when so many others don't and get away with it? That starts to look like being a sucker rather than being a good citizen. The federal government needs to spend far less just to reduce the scope of graft. Tip to Insanity Wrap.

Wait. What? Ancient women gave men the "beer goggles?" Tip to The Morning Briefing.

It's almost as if our government doesn't want the ability to prove the Xi Jinping Flu virus started in a Wuhan, China laboratory.

Or maybe the more masculine you say you are the less likely you are to whine about your life. Tip to Instapundit.

Hunger is coming to North Korea.

Opportunity: "The nine Freedom-class Littoral Combat Ships currently in Navy service – the youngest of which commissioned in 2020 – have been marked for disposal as part of the Department of Defense’s Fiscal Year 2023 budget proposal, USNI News has learned." The Marine Littoral Regiment could use them. If they can be fixed so they don't break down at sea, of course.

The road to Hell is paved with (self-proclaimed) good intentions.

Fighting the labor shortage with ECON 101. But it might as well be magic for many of our credentialed moron officials. Tip to Instapundit.

True, Russia can always bow lower: "[China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi] said China was ready to take their relationship [with Russia] 'into a new era' and 'to a higher level'." The longer Russia's war against Ukraine goes on, the lower Russia will have to bow to China.

It started out 5 years ago with "punch a Nazi"--with mysterious definitions. And now we're down to "slap a guy who says something you don't like--after remembering you shouldn't have laughed at that something." 

Are sanctions really going to wreck Russia's economy? Via Instapundit. I admit I was skeptical that sanctions could seriously harm a large country in the long run. We'll see if a long war is even an option for Russia, I guess. But if sanctions are really that effective, Russia might decide nukes are the only weapon to end them. Have a super sparkly day.

Lavrov sucks up to Wang. I regret nothing.

Russians only hear that their army invaded Ukraine to save it from Nazis. So the polling is not shocking: " As of March, polls in Russia showed 58 percent of Russians back the invasion of Ukraine while only 23 percent oppose it." I think Russians should be shown exactly who has died in the Russian army. That gets the cost highlighted and indirectly undermines the notion that Ukrainians welcome Russia. When the war is over and the surviving Russian troops go back home, their war stories will be inconvenient for Putin.

Oops: "Ukrainian forces have captured a lot of modern Russian weapons and military equipment and made these discoveries available to Western countries that are supplying Ukraine with modern weapons and economic and diplomatic pressure on Russia."

Indeed: "If you read between the lines in the administration’s proposed defense budget, though, it seems policymakers don’t really grasp the value of land power in places like the Pacific, and don’t realize sea power would be largely irrelevant in places like Eastern Europe." He's preaching to the choir here on the Pacific. But not about Europe, although I think our NATO allies can exert control of the Baltic Sea without major American naval support.

Greece holds major air force exercises: "Israel is using Inochios 2022 to rehearse some of the combat capabilities it would need to conduct strikes against Iran’s nuclear program." The Saudis are observing.

An American official: "We have information that Putin felt misled by the Russian military. There is now persistent tension between Putin and the [Russian Ministry of Defence]." But is it tension that threatens Putin? That's the only kind that really matters. And I don't rule out that a replacement for Putin could be worse from the West's perspective.

Well, yes. I've long said it is a crime against language to believe "liberal minded" is a synonym for "open minded." Tip to Instapundit.

From suppressed thought crime to old news in just two years. Our media is horrible. Democracy dies in darkness, indeed, Tip to Instyapundit.

You have to wonder how the Chinese Communist Party can maintain the Mandate of Heaven as the Xi Jinping Covid-19 virus--and the government response--continues to ravage China. 

Russia is in competition with China for influence in the former Soviet republics in Central Asia. But Putin's invasion of Ukraine demonstrated Russia's willingness to attack to bring escaped states back into the empire. And Russia has exposed its military as weaker than advertised. Will Central Asian states look more to China for protection as a result?

Not exactly a sniper, but far from "spray and pray": The M110A1 squad designated marksman rifle will equip one soldier in each Army squad.

I don't blame them: "The presidents of the three Baltic nations agree the time of providing “tripwire” forces to NATO’s eastern front is over and must be replaced with a strengthened “forward defense” to deter future Russian aggression in Europe." But don't be shocked if the rest of NATO isn't eager. Let's not get cocky because Russia screwed up planning and executing their invasion of Ukraine.

People are finally recognizing what I've said for years: Putin is no strategic genius. 

The "I can't believe it's not nuclear!" subs. 

Putin is failing to get the Soviet-era power and territory back. But he is getting the brain drain. How long before Putin has to rebuild a Berlin Wall to keep people in? It's a package deal. Tip to Instapundit.

Hard target. 

Have Russian elites rallied around Putin? Could be. But the bravado may fade as sanctions endure and propaganda is exposed. And then perhaps their positions may change. Or maybe not. Even Maduro and his elites remain in power despite Venezuela collapsing around him and his elites.

I remain shocked that the Russian people have accepted the casualties of the war in Ukraine. But then again I don't know if the Russian people know what the cost has been already. 

But is this practically significant? "Putin's inner circle, which once appeared to be in lockstep about the war and the officially declared reasons for it, is split quite dramatically between those who want to cut Russia's losses and run and those who want to fight until the bitter end, to deliver Ukraine in its entirety to the Russian people." It doesn't sound like "rallying" around Putin. I'm sure it is complicated by competing fears.

Russia freely issues nuclear threats. Putin is the boy who cried "nuke!" And this is a tradition there. I honestly ignore him. Perhaps I shouldn't. But it's their standard operating practice. In the incident mentioned in the first link I would not rule out Russia flying with inert nuclear weapons for the threat without the risk of accidental launch.

OPEC countries won't go along with Biden's requests (via Instapundit): "The oil-producing nations have resisted pressure from the U.S. to pump more crude as prices soar, exacerbating already sky-high inflation." Maybe if America acted like more of an ally to Arab oil producers instead of gazing googly eyed at Iran's mullahs, Biden would have gotten a different response.

EU hopes spring eternal: "China's reputation is at stake if it helps Russia to evade international sanctions, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned[.]" Yeah, China hasn't cared about its reputation for its policies on Uighurs, Tibetans, Falun Gong members, the Catholic Church, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Pacific territorial waters, North Korea and its nuclear program, Third World debt bondage, espionage, propaganda, or even millions of deaths after releasing the Covid-19 pandemic globally. But this is what China will care about. The fantasy land the EU lives in lingers on.

Early on, I suggested India as a broker for a peace deal. I'd like India to have Russia's gratitude in order to help India split Russia--long-time arms provider to India--from China. That diplomatic avenue is growing: "India’s relationship with Russia, and its diplomatic balancing act could turn it into an unexpected broker." 

Straight-up racist hate.  

Releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is supposed to be for war time when war cuts America off from imported energy. It is not supposed to be used for making up for a president's decisions to lower American fossil fuels production and imports from Canada. Refusing to produce more energy and reducing our strategic reserve. It's like our enemies designed our energy policy.

I'd like to point out that the Soviet Union had to import wheat because it could not produce enough. But Russia is the leading wheat exporter of wheat while Ukraine--formerly enslave inside the USSR--is the fourth. Is there a more damning piece of evidence of the economic absurdity of socialism?

So far Russia's propaganda is working on its own people: "Five weeks into President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, there are signs that the Russian public’s initial shock has given way to a mix of support for their troops and anger at the West." 

Russia lost their chance in 2014 to capture a pro-Russian region: "These areas may be broadly Russian-speaking, but they are no longer pro-Russian. 'Mariupol was one of the most pro-Russian cities in Ukraine and to level it is beyond my comprehension,' says defence specialist Konrad Muzyka, head of Rochan Consulting." Russia might reverse that over time, of course. But it is no liberation now.

LOL!

Australia is preparing to fight China if necessary. But you have to recruit the personnel.

Is America flinching? "A U.S. intercontinental ballistic missile test that was initially postponed in early March to avoid 'misinterpretation' by Russia was recently canceled, the Department of the Air Force said Friday." Or does America know we have little to fear?

The Air Force plans to retire the oldest fifth of its F-22s. The plane is great but old. The money saved could update the rest. And the planes were really just useful for training pilots. Although the least capable combat planes will be needed for that. But then again, a replacement for the F-22 will be developed.

CENTCOM wants more 30,000-pound GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs. Somebody doesn't trust Iran to decline to produce nuclear weapons.

I did something fun last week. I did my taxes. On paper. It was a real pain this year with college funding issues to figure out. So that wasn't the fun part. I decided to walk to the post office because I didn't want to risk my state returns getting sent back for insufficient postage. When I got there, the entry signage for wearing a mask was ill-maintained. I took that as significant so figured I'd go in mask-less and wait to be told to put one on. I had one in my pocket. After waiting ten minutes in line, the quite friendly young woman at the counter took care of me and even asked if I wanted a receipt, which upon reflection was a nice idea since it showed where my mail went and what date. I smiled, thanked her, and left. Without being told to put a mask on. And without a self-appointed mask deputy customer--everyone else was masked--nagging me. Or do federal buildings no longer require masks?

Sure. Until China makes it accept a base: "Amid a regional backlash, the Solomon Islands said it would not allow a Chinese military base in the Pacific islands nation despite its plans to sign a security pact with Beijing."

Will Google search die? Well, it has been a long time since I've used it. I don't trust the results and I don't trust what Google does with the search data it collects. 

Despite the worry about yet another variant, this sounds like victory: "As of Friday, just 2.15% of hospital beds nationwide are in use for COVID-19 patients, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services." Tip to Instapundit.

I have no doubt that the Biden administration will cave in to this Iranian demand to get the Iran nuclear deal restored: "Talks on restoring the Iran nuclear deal, on pause since early March, remain in a state of limbo over the issue of the listing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on a State Department terror black list." I particularly enjoyed how our State Department doesn't count Iranian terrorism if it isn't directed at Americans in Iraq. Also, how did Iran expand a nuclear weapons program that Iran claims not to have?

America decides what stays and what goes. I still think the A-10's role has to be when enemy air defenses aren't present. That can be counter-insurgency, it can be attacking enemy armored units breaking through friendly lines, it could be attacking airheads from enemy airborne insertions, or it could be in pursuit of an enemy in disorganized retreat.

I assume the Chinese are busy figuring out what Russia-based military equipment they have that Russia lost on the battlefield, which is now being examined by NATO countries.

The media only falls for and amplifies certain ... ah, politically convenient ... rumors and conspiracy theories. Tip to Instapundit. Ef our media. And the donkey they rode in on.

And Now For Something Completely Different

I memed myself today. To see if I still feel. I focus on the links. The only thing that's real.

 

 

 

Concentrate Effects and Not Targets at Sea

The Navy is looking at alternatives to robotic missile carriers for the fleet.

I'm eager for the Navy to have options other than its preferred option:

The study will compare the Navy’s preferred plan — a large unmanned surface vessel (LUSV) outfitted with vertical launching system tubes that can fire strike missiles — to other options. Four categories of options being considered are modifying existing naval ship designs, such as amphibious ships, expeditionary fast transports and expeditionary sea bases; modifying commercial vessel designs, such as container ships and bulk carriers; creating a new naval ship design; or creating a new commercial ship design, Aldridge said.

Perhaps I'm misreading the concept of "large." But the LUSV sounds like an unmanned version of the Arsenal Ship. Even if "large" just means relative to tiny unmanned surface vessels, I'd bet the ship grows over time if put into development. Which is stupid if you want to correct America's over-reliance on a few expensive ships--our big carriers. Making Arsenal Ships robotic doesn't make them less stupid. These kinds of high-value targets motivate enemies to threaten them wherever they are.

But I hate the option of adding missiles to Navy logistics ships. We have too few of them to make them offensive ships, too. Especially with a larger fleet spread out over more ocean.

Spreading out missiles across the fleet is a good basic concept that harnesses network-centric warfare capabilities (I know the term of art has changed a lot over the decades, but the concept is the same). 

Ships, subs, planes, helicopters, and ground force assets must fight as one to kill ships and knock down planes. When shooters and sensors don't have to be in the same platform, options expand.

And I'm fully on board the container ship option, as I've long advocated in a modularized auxiliary cruiser concept. Indeed, such ships might be a stepping stone to fully robotic ships.

Missiles need to be spread out in the existing fleet. And more hulls must be in the fleet. The Navy must minimize the effects of losing a single ship for waging a campaign to control the seas. 

And for Neptune's sake, kill the "large" in LUSV in this study.

NOTE: War updates continue in this post.