Better Hope the President Doesn't Hear of This

If the 2012 election is close, would someone consider challenging North Dakota's electoral college votes?

Back in 1889, North Dakota was carved out of the Dakota Territory and admitted to the Union at the same time as South Dakota. Or so everyone thought.

But the state founders who drafted the constitution left out the key requirement that the governor and other top officials take an oath of office, putting the state constitution in conflict with the federal one.

I wouldn't put it past the campaign people to ponder this.

A shame that the man pushing this issue for so long couldn't have waited until 2013.

Encouraging Them to Be Self Sufficent?

Taiwanese are here to urge the Obama administration to sell them needed late-model F-16 fighter planes:

Washington has yet to announce whether it plans to supply the C/Ds, a move that would especially anger mainland China, which opposes all arms sales to Taiwan and regards the democratically governed island as part of its territory. ...

Speculation is growing that the Obama administration, which has sought to improve relations with Beijing, would agree only to the upgrades.

Yang, a former adviser to Taiwan's National Security Council, dismissed as guesswork reports that Vice-President Joe Biden would inform Beijing during a visit next month that the U.S. would not supply the F-16 C/Ds that Taiwan seeks.

This should be a lesson to Taiwan that relying on American support is dangerous. Of course, Taiwan used to buy from the French and others to keep weapons flowing. But we are the last standing. And if we are unreliable, Taiwan would be wise to be able to build their own advanced fighters.

And if they can't do that, nuclear missiles will do in a pinch to make up for conventional deterrence failure.

I mean, we must be intending this result, right? That is a logical response to our failure to supply Taiwan with conventional weapons sufficient to deter China. Surely our "smart" diplomacy understands that basic fact.

Still, another logical result is that Taiwan might be forced out of military weakness to cut a deal with China sacrificing liberty for safety from attack.

Surely, we don't intend that outcome, right?

In His Own Words

How SFC Petry earned his Medal of Honor.

Not Helpful

I know that Iraq without a conventional military or Saddam Hussein in charge is not going to be invading anybody anytime soon. But did the Kuwaitis really have to do this?

Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said on Friday that Kuwait never officially informed Baghdad about a controversial port project, which his country says must be stopped.

The project is on Bubiyan Island, which will kind of hinder access to Iraq's access to the sea.

You'd think the Kuwaitis would have a little more sense than to do this unilaterally.

And you'd think our diplomats might have noticed the project, understood the significance, and maybe talked Kuwait out of it in this form. I mean, smart diplomacy could have done that.

Time- and Scope-Limited Recognition

Oh yeah, before the weekend we decided to recognize the rebels as the government of Libya:

The United States and other nations on Friday formally recognized Libya's main opposition group as the country's legitimate government until a new interim authority is formed.

So now we aren't waging a war to help the people we recognize as the legal government of Libya actually gain control of the territory of Libya?

Yeah, this makes a lot of sense.

Where It Started

Back in Tunisia, all is not calm:

Tunisian police fired tear gas Friday to break up an anti-government protest in the capital, with demonstrators accusing the authorities of using violence to end their peaceful action.

After Friday prayers, hundreds of protestors joined a sit-in near the seat of government in Tunis' Kasbah neighbourhood to demand the resignation of the interior and justice ministers.

The demonstrators were clamouring for the judiciary's full independence and the prosecution of those responsible for the deadly repression of Tunisia's democratic uprising earlier this year.

If our diplomats are earning their keep, they are working to make Tunisia an Arab Spring success story. They aren't large or pivotal, but they were the first and it would be nice if it didn't just end up being musical chairs for those in power to play.

But I haven't read much about Tunisia lately, so I don't know if this is a sign that the ruling elite is trying to carry on as before or whether the protesters are being unreasonable.

This Will Be Interesting

The Libyan rebels claim to have breached loyalist defenses at Buraqyqah (Brega), before retreating to prepare to attack in force.

Taking and holding the oil town would be a major victory, especially given the long stalemate along the coastal eastern front.

Holding the town would also be a big boost to the loyalists and perhaps discourage NATO from believing it can ecentually prevail.

Telegraphing Their Doom

I thought that after the last North Korean artillery bombardment of a South Korean island (following soon after the sinking of one of South Korea's small warships) that South Korea would saddle up with an alpha strike on the North Korean artillery units responsible. But there was no response.

But now Admiral Mullent warns the North Koreans that they got their last free shot at our side:

Crediting South Korean leaders for their “poise and calm” in the face of last year’s provocations from North Korea, the top U.S. military leader today warned North Korea to expect “a very strong response” to a future attack.

“The north should not mistake their restraint as a lack of resolve, nor should they interpret it as a willingness to accept continued attacks … unchallenged,” Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during a media roundtable in the South Korean capital of Seoul.

It helps that the Chinese have warned North Korea not to expect Chinese support if North Korea starts another incident.

The Enemy of My Enemy

American and Vietnamese ships will exercise together despite China's annoyance at the maneuvers:

Three U.S. Navy ships were welcomed Friday by former foe Vietnam for joint training, despite China's irritation following weeks of fiery exchanges between the communist neighbors over disputed areas of the South China Sea.

China's anger isn't high on our "give a damn" list:

"We've had a presence in the Western Pacific and the South China Sea for 50 to 60 years, even going back before World War II," Rear Adm. Tom Carney, who's leading the naval exchange, told reporters. "We will maintain a presence in the Western Pacific and the South China Sea as we have for decades, and we have no intention of departing from that kind of activity."

As long as countries trust us to stay in the western Pacific (where those countries must remain regardless of their preferences), we'll have friends in the western Pacific.

Signal Flow

I needed to recharge my iPod Touch. Instead of walking over to an open outlet, I thought I'd save time by moving a plugged in cord on a power strip to clear out a plug to use.

So you know that this time-saving simple plug move cascaded into a 1-1/2 hour Internet outage, right?

Yes indeed. It turns out that what I unplugged was my router. That seemed to knock out my DSL connection. I unplugged the DSL modem to let it reset. I've done that before with power outages for my entire home, so why wouldn't it work with a power outage to just the device?

Well, it didn't work. I rebooted after plugging in the modem. I actually found the installation disk and went through that and it kept telling me that the connection was bad. So I rechecked every connection. Three calls to automated tech support kept getting me the same conclusion.

I even added a DSL phone filter to a phone line that I recently plugged in upstairs (but which isn't connected, so it shouldn't have mattered one way or another). Heck, I'd have to do that anyway and I had the filter.

This was puzzling. Like I said, I've lost power before and only needed to unplug the modem to reset everything. Sure, my set up is now different from the diagrams because I have a router inserted into the signal flow. But I have lost power before so this isn't any different.

Still, the signal flow is non-standard.

So I rewire the tangle to just my modem. Success! Internet connection! That means the router is the problem. But while that is fine for me, my son's computer requires wireless and my daughter and son (and me for that matter) would miss Netflix through the Wii.

And speaking of Netflix, darn them to heck for their massive planned fee increase. I got them for the disks and learned to love the streaming, first on my computer monitor and then on my TV through the Wii. But I will either monitor Amazon's streaming and see if getting their Amazon Prime membership along with included streaming video is better. Or perhaps just drop the disks and use the local Blockbuster where I still have an ancient but unused membership for the occasional movie. It's nice to have the stream of disks coming in off my list--sometimes at a surprise because I'm not paying attention to the list--but I may just accept that loss. We'll see. They have every right to charge what they think they need to so as to make a profit, mind you. But a low-cost entertainment option is going up steeply so I have every right to consider my options.

But I digress. Although it was a signal flow issue, I suppose.

So, risking my reestablished connection, I unplug the router and let it sit while I get some more coffee. I plug it in and the lights are behaving more normally.

So I reconfigure the wires to put the router back into the flow. I click on a web site and ... success! I have Internet connection and the router is looking all normal on the dash lights.

Woo hoo!

And note to self: Never, ever touch the power strip that prompted this cascade of time waste.

Someone's Patience Will Snap

The protests in Syria seem go be building in breadth:

As the Syrian uprising enters its fifth month, activists and human rights groups say they are detecting a new momentum in the protest movement, with demonstrations now taking place on a near-daily basis in towns around the country. Among them are places where the uprising had seemingly been suppressed, such as the southern town of Daraa, the earliest focus of the government’s crackdown, where hundreds of people staged a demonstration on Thursday in a central commercial district.

There were also demonstrations in several suburbs of Damascus, Homs, Hasakah in the far northeast of the country, Qamishli in the north, Bokamal on the Iraqi border and Deir al-Zour, where four protesters were shot dead by security forces, according to the Local Coordination Committees, which both coordinates and disseminates news about protests.

“The protests are definitely escalating. This is unusual during weekdays,” said Wissam Tarif of the human rights group Insan, who is currently in Beirut. “For the past week, we’ve seen protests every night in many locations.”

The Syrian government has been able to rely on a few loyal units and reliable goons and secret police while leaving the bulk of the army out of the fray.

I'll ask again, how long will the basic Sunni conscripts just stand by and watch Alawites and Iranian agents (or even just rumors of Iranian agents) shoot fellow Sunnis? If protests are taking place more days and in more places, the loyal forces will have to shuttle around that much faster or risk leaving protests uncovered where they might spread.

But can Assad intensify the shootings to try to squash the protests before the bulk of the army gets too shaky to stand aside?

Heck, how long can the loyal guys just keep up the pace?

Any Minute Now

The lads fighting over and near Libya will surely be home before the September quarterly review on war renewal, well before Christmas:

U.S. officials say pressure appears to be building against Gadhafi's regime after months of apparent stalemate. They point at three key indicators: dwindling fuel supplies, a cash crisis and reports of low morale among regime troops. Gadhafi is also facing a cash crisis after Turkey cut off his access, on July 4, to hundreds of millions in Libyan funds held in a Turkish-Libyan bank, they say.

Maybe they're right. They've been saying the pressure would crack Khaddafi for four months now, and it could. Or perhaps Khaddafi can hold on. Smuggling is undermining the fuel cut off:

The areas of Libya under Gaddafi's control are suffering a shortage of fuel. Sanctions make it difficult to import fuel legally and Libya's own refining capacity has been severely curtailed by the conflict.

If supplies get tighter, most analysts say, Gaddafi will no longer be able to hold on. His troops will struggle to travel to the front line to take on the rebels, and the economy will grind to a halt.

But smuggling by networks like the one operated by Yacine and his colleagues bypasses the sanctions and -- combined with fuel from the one operational refinery under Gaddafi's control -- helps keep his government ticking over.

Khaddafi has means to cope with our air power and our blockade. He can't nullify his suffering but he can reduce the pain.

Perhaps long enough for the horse to sing, eh?

All Quiet on the Eastern Front

Khaddafi's forces held off a rebel attack on Burayqah (Brega), which is the loyalist front line in the east:

Rebels in Libya's east pulled back Friday after a failed advance on an oil town, as embattled ruler Moammar Gadhafi called on his followers to strike back at NATO. ...

The failed rebel attack on the strategic oil city of Brega came just before a key meeting in Istanbul over the future of Libya, with delegates from more than 30 countries discussing Friday how to end the conflict.

As the shaky NATO alliance discusses what to do, I'm sure the rebels would have liked a small victory from their long-quiet frontlines. The fighting has been all in the west from the Misrata enclave and tribal rebels south and southwest of Tripoli, despite all the help given to the eastern rebels.

Turkey, which has seemed to come out against Khaddafi, nonetheless proposes actions that would save him:

Turkey, which is co-chairing Friday's meeting together with the United Arab Emirates, is calling for an immediate cease-fire and providing water, food and fuel to strife-torn cities.

It wants NATO to stop targeting ground forces to prevent civilian casualties before the start of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan in August, HaberTurk television said Friday.

Ah yes, the mythical war-free Ramadan is raised up yet again as a reason to ease off despite our fighting through Ramadan in our initial Afghanistan attack in 2001 and despite annual surges in terrorist attacks in Iraq throughout the insurgencies.

And as I said (reading further down in the article as I write):

The attack on Brega, a key oil installation and long a rebel goal, may have been an attempt to strengthen the rebels' position ahead of talks.

The rebels provided no reason for the skittish in NATO to hold fast and press on for victory.

Khaddafi's regime may be shaky, but his enemies may be in worse shape. The guns may fall silent yet.

Out of Reach

One good reason we may feel better positioned to confront Pakistan over their refusal to fully engage in the war on Islamist terrorists and support some on the side is that our reliance on Pakistan lines of supply for our troops in Afghanistan is dropping fast (from this Strategypage article). The northern route, which includes routes through Russia, now handles 40% of our supply traffic. We aim to raise that to 75% by the end of this year and get it to 100% in a year.

 

Our supply lines through Pakistan always gave me nightmares. Especially as we surged troops into Afghanistan. Luckily, not all the northern route is through Russia, or I might still have bad dreams if not nighmares.

Earning Their Pay

You have to love China's willingness to go to bat for their bad boys:

The world should recognize the efforts made by Sudan in bringing peace to its southern region, now an independent state, and normalize relations with Khartoum, state media on Thursday quoted a senior Chinese diplomat as saying.

So, after a few decades of slaughtering people on the borderlands, the Sudanese government let some slip away. So we should reward them.

To explain, Sudan is now a slightly truncated version of its former awful self. And don't think that South Sudan is out of the woods yet, given that the Sudan dictatorship is still on their border and oil is at stake.

Bluster

I wrote that Khaddafi just might be serious about his threat to attack European targets because it might just work to crack the NATO coalition fighting him.

But Strategypage says Europeans rounded up people and found there is nothing going on. Libya's network in Europe has apparently faded away.

Khaddafi may want to hit Europe, but he'll have to work hard to actually do it.

Yet Still I Can't Remember When I Last Wore Long Pants

I'm taking advantage of summer in Ann Arbor, for the most part (I completely missed Top of the Park, I'm afraid).

I hit a used book store this week that I haven't been to in years (or decades?), and scored a Ballantine's volume of 20th century wars plus a bonus H. Beam Piper book that I didn't have.

Today I went to a lunch concert. Despite having a female lead singer, the band looked too much like a commune with some marketable skills just one bad gig away from abandoning music and focusing on their love of hackey sack.

So I listened for a while and then took off to have a couple beers at Conor O'Neill's while surfing the web, reading a book, and listening to music. Ah, afternoon saved!

Tonight is a game night to play an old board game called GEV (the son of Ogre) with a couple friends.

And despite the disappointment with the band, I can still say I can't remember the last day I wore long pants. Summer is good.

The Song Remains the Same

China's rulers are pining for the days when their mere existence inspired the masses. They want that aura back:

The wind of “red culture” is blowing strong in China as since early this year, the mainland’s state media has been vigorously promoting a revival of Maoist era culture, including songs, literature, art, films and celebrations of revolutionary icons. ...

In broad terms, China’s “Red Culture” push is linked to the 90th anniversary of the founding of the CCP. At the request of the Propaganda Department of the CCP, newspapers throughout the mainland unanimously printed events and stories about figures in the revolutionary era.

At the same time, governments of all levels, schools and business enterprises have been sponsoring a series of celebrations, including singing red songs, watching red movies and essay competitions.

The commercial sector has also seized on the trend with many companies rushing to promote the sale of Mao suits, his little red book Quotations from Mao Zedong and other nostalgic items.

Rather than being a propaganda campaign in support of a specific project, it is just a "feel good about Communist rule" campaign. With the ironic twist that the private sector is jumping on the campaign to make money.

But getting people to feel trendy with Red clothing and commie catch phrases will get the rulers nowhere. Plenty of Westerners wear "Che" shirts and mouth Marxist platitudes without being anything more than clueless. They aren't about to head off into the bush to wage an insurgency. And they'd be upset with a government that tried to order them about (as opposed to ordering about others who aren't living the right way).

So perhaps this campaign will just be a reminder that despite all the economic progress (which may be fragile), the people still don't have much of a say in how they are governed. You have to admit that it would be pretty funny if a mob of young people wearing Mao t-shirts stormed the capital--with their fellow age cohorts in the army right beside them--and brought down the system.

Outraged?

The Arab League is upset with Western sympathy for Syria's protesters in their battle of wills with the Assad dictatorship. The Arab League's top man, Nabil Elaraby, expressed his outrage over "foreign interference" in Arab internal affairs, after a little chat with Boy Assad.

Huh. Funny how "interference" is only when foreigners support people against the dictator. It isn't interference when foreigners support the government. Like Iran's support for killing Syrian protesters.

Oh wait, it isn't even just a bias towards foreign interference in support of a government. Because the Arab League couldn't seem to work up outrage over Iranian interference (with weapons, training, and people) against the fledgling Iraqi government the last 8 years. Indeed, the Arab League--a bastion of Sunni Arab governments--seemed downright hostile toward the Iraqi government.

So what's the outrage, again?

UPDATE: Oh bloody heck. And how can I forget that NATO's war on Libya relies on an Arab League request for NATO to conduct a no-fly zone over Libya? Granted, NATO took that no-fly zone request and turned it into a half-hearted war, but still, the Arab League actually asked for Western intervention--"interference" you might say--in the internal affairs of an Arab state!

Man, the Arab League could give lessons in foreign policy nuance to our State Department.

Hatred in Mumbai

Islamist terrorists hit Mumbai yet again, this time with a number of time bombs. Said Dr. Rohan Gunaratna, a Singapore-based al Qaeda expert, "It's very likely coordinated by Indian Mujahideen looking at the severity and scale of the attacks -- in the past they've used tiffin carrier bombs and IEDs." I had to look it up, but "tiffin carriers" are lunch boxes.

Pakistan condemned the blasts, although I'm sure not many Pakistanis join with the government in doing so. But the government has to worry that the Indian government is looking west toward Pakistan for complicity in yet another terror attack. Whether or not Pakistan was involved, if India thinks Pakistan is behind the attack there could be trouble. And Pakistan is in the middle of an argument with their main ally, the United States.

My sympathies go out to Indians, who have longer experience with jihadis than we do (well, not counting the Barbary pirates). But what do they expect after provoking Moslems by invading Iraq? Oh, sorry, I seem to have channeled some liberal conventional wisdom.