Fear the Disruptions

Ah, so it is to be "global climate disruption" now:

President Obama’s Science Czar John Holdren is worried about global warming. Having noticed that there hasn’t actually been any global warming since 1998, he feels it ought to be called “global climate disruption” instead. That way whether it gets warmer or colder, wetter or drier, less climatically eventful or more climatically eventful, the result will be the same: it can all be put down to “global climate disruption.”

Yes. This is convenient for them. No more "global warming." Lack of recent warming and questions of their data about past temperatures made that tough. And "climate change" is kind of vague when you consider the climate simply changes whether we do anything or not. But now, when any incident of "disruption" from what is supposed to be the norm is a sign of the Apocalypse, and the solution is more government regulation of our lives, there is no point when we can send home the experts appointed to save us from ourselves after solving the problem.

I'm not convinced that the data over thousands of years is sound enough to conclude we are the warmest ever; I'm not convinced, even if we are the warmest ever, that we can pin it on man; and even if it is demonstrably warmer because of man's activities, I sure as heck don't buy the socialistic and anti-liberty solutions peddled by the global disruptionists. That's my basic position.

They can go disrupt themselves, as far as I'm concerned.

Well, That's Nice for Them

So, elections in Afghanistan are here and the Taliban don't like it:

Taliban militants determined to scuttle Afghanistan's parliamentary elections showered rockets on cities Saturday as men in tunics and women in blue burqas voted in a key test of the government's ability to fight insurgents and entrenched corruption.

I haven't gotten as worked up over elections in Afghanistan as I have over Iraq because I just don't think they are as important. Iraq is fairly central in the Moslem world. Afghanistan just isn't. Oh, it has been a jihadi Disneyland for several decades where young jihadis can dash off to fight Russian Infidels or American Infidels, or just get training to kill Infidels. So it is important that it is not a sanctuary for jihadis. But I have minimal expectations for democracy there. I just want legitimacy for a mostly nominal central government and legitimacy at the provincial and local levels where most of the practical governing that matters to people gets done.

My main goal is that we hold them with minimal violence below whatever level it is that leads Afghans to have confidence in our side. So far, so good:

Afghan security officials dismissed the attacks as "insignificant," and said they did not hamper voting, adding that 92 percent of polling stations were open.

"There are no reports of major incidents," Afghan Election Commission Chairman Fazel Ahmad Manawi told reporters.

We shall see. I think we can win here, but I also worry we will escalate our objectives beyond what we need--a decentralized state that provides enough services to be legitimate to the people and that has leaders and people friendly to us so that al Qaeda or other jihadis do not use Afghanistan as a training ground and launching pad for attacks on us or to support an Islamist revolt in Pakistan.

Oh, and I worry we'll decide to retreat even when we can win.

UPDATE: Strategypage has a good view on the elections.

Goooooooaaaaaallllllll!

Mister made it on the middle school soccer team today. Try outs were this week and last week.

Mister wasn't eager to play soccer, since he really isn't a joiner. I sympathize. If it was up to me, I wouldn't make him join groups. I remain grateful that my parents never made me join anything. To her credit, Mister's mom insisted he do something. I backed her. And I talked it up as I took him last week for his sports physical. Mister insisted he'd try to fail. I didn't even bring up the cost of going shopping with him last weekend for soccer gear that would get used for a week or so if he truly tried to fail.

But he tried. And continued to try even when he twisted his ankle. And today, Mister made it on the team. Lamb and I sat a distance away to avoid the humiliation of dad and little sister cheering him on. And after he was called up at the end of practice by the coach, I saw him leap over some gym bags on the way to get his. Despite his sore ankle. Oh yeah, he made it. And was happy. He high fived some friends who also made it on the team.

He doesn't know if he'll be first string goalkeeper or not, but we'll see. And I'll take him to a park with a net to practice on weekends.

I'm obviously quite proud he made it. And proud he wanted to do his best even when he protested over the whole concept.

And after two months, he'll have fulfilled his "do something" mandate and he can return to his usual hobbies and interests.

Two Degrees of Ahmadinejad

Venezuela wanted nuclear weapons data:

A scientist and his wife who both once worked at Los Alamos National Laboratory were arrested Friday after an FBI sting operation and charged with offering to help develop a nuclear weapon for Venezuela.

Why would Hugo Chavez want nukes?

He probably doesn't. But his close pal Ahmadinejad of Iran does.

Hugo is a buffoon. But he is a potentially dangerous buffoon. What help has he already provided to Iran to advance their nuclear plans or facilitate building terrorism networks in the Western Hemisphere.

Body Armor

I remain impressed with the things we discover about our primitive ancestors:

A Kevlar-like armor might have helped Alexander the Great (356–323 B.C.) conquer nearly the entirety of the known world in little more than two decades, according to new reconstructive archaeology research.

Presented at the annual meeting of the Archaeological Institute of America in Anaheim, Calif., the study suggests that Alexander and his soldiers protected themselves with linothorax, a type of body armor made by laminating together layers of linen. ...

"Our controlled experiments basically dispelled the myth that armor made out of cloth must have been inferior to other available types. Indeed, the laminated layers function like an ancient version of modern Kevlar armor, using the flexibility of the fabric to disperse the force of the incoming arrow," Aldrete said.

 
Imagine that for a moment. Alexander's troops went into battle with better personal protection than our troops in World War II had--their shirts.

One Freaking Huge Omelette

Forty-five million broken eggs during the "Great Leap Forward."

At least 45 million people were worked, starved or beaten to death in China over these four years[.]

Who knew that Communists are blood-thirsty bastards? (Tip to Mad Minerva)

Tirade?

A man in Florida is in trouble for standing up for his daughter:

A father, who was trying to protect his disabled daughter from her alleged bullies, was caught on camera (video images) threatening students on a school bus.

James Jones' daughter suffers from cerebral palsy and is now on suicide watch. The girl's father boarded the school bus on September 3 and threatened students during a profanity-laced tirade.

Tirade? I don't think so. He defended his daughter. Good for him.

Clearly Islamophobic

The cartoonist Molly Norris is fearful of Islamists:

The gifted artist is alive and well, thankfully. But on the insistence of top security specialists at the FBI, she is, as they put it, "going ghost": moving, changing her name, and essentially wiping away her identity. She will no longer be publishing cartoons in our paper or in City Arts magazine, where she has been a regular contributor. She is, in effect, being put into a witness-protection program—except, as she notes, without the government picking up the tab. It's all because of the appalling fatwa issued against her this summer, following her infamous "Everybody Draw Mohammed Day" cartoon.

It's sad to see mindless, xenophobic, Islamophobia in action. I'm sure she is over-reacting, right?

The left side of the aisle like to pretend that they are the ones who are Moslem friendly by denouncing as "Islamophobic" any American who raises questions about the threat of Islamists.

But by jumping to defend all Moslems whenever the question is about Islamist fanatics, aren't these self-proclaimed defenders of the Islamic faith actually the ones who assume all Moslems must be jihadi-friendly? If you can't denounce jihadis or question Islamist thinking because it is assumed that all Moslems will be insulted, aren't you assuming all Moslems agree with the jihadis and Islamist thinking?

I have no problem accepting that only a minority of Moslems are a threat to us. But I also have no problem accepting that we need to kill as many of that violent minority as we can. And I assume that most Moslems will be relieved that there are fewer jihadis that, in practice, manage to kill far more Moslems than Infidels.

Molly Norris is not Islamophobic to hide when Islamists actually want to kill her.

We haven't won until Ms. Norris lives openly and those who wish her dead have to "go ghost" for their own safety.

Hoisted By Their Own Petard

Given that France has been a chief promoter of the European Union, this rebuke amuses me:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy upended a European Union summit to defend his own nation's honor, vowing Thursday to keep clearing out illegal immigrant camps despite accusations that France is being racist and unfairly targets Gypsies.

The summit was supposed to be a forum for molding a unifying European foreign policy, but it turned into a drama of discord — with the outspoken Sarkozy usurping the podium to preach his policies and lash out at his critics.

Sarkozy said comments by EU Justice Commissioner Viviane Reding that linked the expulsions to the mass deportations of World War II were "disgusting."

You have to hate it when the monster you brought to life heads for your own village, grunting and looking all spooky.

Heaven Has No Rage Like Love to Hatred Turned

China has turned up their charm offensive the last couple years, but Taiwan continues to buy weapons from America to defend themselves. And worse, the Taiwanese seem to be reacting to the charm not with eagerness to embrace but with relief that nothing needs to change:

More and more Taiwanese prefer to maintain the political status quo with China while fewer wish to see the two sides reunify, despite vastly improved relations over the past two years.

Various recent surveys attest to this broad trend. The latest, published last week by the mass-circulation United Daily News, shows that for the first time, a majority - 51 per cent - of Taiwanese would prefer that the island neither declare independence nor reunify with China "indefinitely". Only 32 per cent of respondents felt this way when the same survey was conducted in July 2000.

Remember, however, that China considers it a cause for war if Taiwan puts off movement towards reunification (on China's terms) with the mainland. In the end, it counts for little in Peking if the Taiwanese grow less fearful and even fonder of China as trade grows, yet refuse political union.

What Hellish fury does Taiwan risk by scorning China?

The Winds Blowing from Iraq

Those who claim that democracy in Iraq is having no effect on the Middle East have an amazingly short time-frame to judge effects. And it ignores that our victory over Saddam and the initial revolt by the Baathists, al Qaeda, and Sadrists that we turned back by 2005 did ripple out from Iraq--in Lebanon's Cedar Revolution in spring 2005.

Movement for democracy there and elsewhere certainly halted as the Sammara Mosque destruction signalled the enemy surge of al Qaeda and Sadrist terror campaigns in Iraq in early 2006 that accelerated until we broke the back of enemy resistance in summer 2007. Iraq itself has slowly crawled back from the edge of darkness to build what could become a lasting democracy.

But perhaps the regional momentum is due to pick up again. Certainly, Lebanon is stuck between the winds of freedom and the counter-gales of despotism and terror:

A Western-backed alliance in Lebanon's government accused the militant group Hezbollah and its allies Wednesday of trying to take the country back to the days when Syria dominated this tiny Arab nation.

The alliance is struggling to maintain its political clout as Hezbollah and its patrons in Damascus gain strength in Lebanon. The March 14 coalition is named for a day of massive demonstrations in 2005 when millions turned out and forced Syria to leave Lebanon after nearly 30 years.

We can still achieve much more than "just" liberating Iraq from Saddam and even cementing democracy and rule of law inside Iraq. I'd wait a a decade or two before judging the example of Iraq to be a failure or not.

And in the meantime, strengthen the anti-Syrian, anti-Iranian, and anti-Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. Who knows when the wind will shift again.

A Tour of the Green Lines

Strategypage takes a tour of the borders of Islam where violence flares as jihadis lash out.

Until jihadis started killing other Moslems in large numbers rather than just occasional info-tainment attacks on distant Westerners, the concept of jihad wasn't too disturbing to the majority of Moslems. The War on Terror has changed that, bringing home the price of tolerating jihadis in their midst all these years.

In the end, Moslems need our help to control the jihadis and eliminate the fertile ground that breeds them:

Not surprisingly, Moslems get motivated to do something about Islamic radicalism when the violence comes to their neighborhoods. That's why terror attacks in the West are so popular. The infidels are being attacked, without any risk to those living in Moslem countries. Iraq changed all that, and during the course of that war (2004-7) the popularity of Islamic terrorism, in Moslem countries, declined sharply because the terrorists were killing so many Moslems. That, in the end, is what has killed, for a while, most Islamic terrorism in Iraq. But this time around, it would be nice if the Moslem world got their act together and expunged this malevolent tendency once and for all.

Those Moslems who would resist the killer Islamists have not been strong enough on their own to resist the tide of Islamist ideology and threats to conform or look away as the jihadis killed us. These Moslems who are not killers and would prefer to build their own lives, but who are naturally afraid of the killers in their neighborhoods watching and judging them, will stand up to the killers if we help them.

It was once called the Long War for a reason. That term may be out of fashion, but it remains a true description of the task ahead of us.

Fight Now. Weep Later

This soldier is distressed that Americans don't seem to fly their flags at half-staff on 9/11, as Patriot Day custom requires. It fails to pay respect to those who were murdered that day, he says.

I disagree. I appreciate his sentiment, but I disagree. I deliberately do not fly my flag at half-staff on 9/11. We are still fighting the war, and as far as I'm concerned, the flag should be flown to show determination--the same determination shown by the United Airlines Flight 93 passengers who tried to take back their plane that day in our first counter-attack--and not to show weepy sorrow.

One day, I hope that the war will be far enough in the rear view mirror for me to fly my flag at half-staff in memory of those who died that day in 2001.

But not yet. No sir, with all due respect, not yet. We're at war. Weeping over our losses is a luxury we have not yet earned.

The Awesome Nuance of Europe

I earlier noted, after the 2008 election, that I was amazed that the nuanced and sophisticated Europeans would learn to love America again under President Obama even though his foreign policies would display amazing consistency on key issues that angered Europeans under the cowboy Bush:

The world will love us again, but the most significant difference leading to that will be "image and presentation." Ah, nuance! Tis a wonderful thing to have.

The Europeans continue to be distracted by the shiny object:

More than three-quarters of those polled in 11 European Union countries said they approve of Obama's handling of international policies, compared with just over half of Americans having that view. The annual survey was conducted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a nonpartisan policy institution that promotes trans-Atlantic cooperation, and the Compagnia di San Paolo, a research center in Turin, Italy.

The poll found that Europeans were not as enthusiastic about some of Obama's specific policies, with just under half approving the U.S. president's handling of Afghanistan and Iran.

Those Europeans sure are a sophisticated lot, eh? Nobody can get anything by them.

Apparently, our unpopularity pre-2009 in Europe had nothing to do with what we did. It was always about the Europeans and not what Bush did as president.

The Dog that Did Not Bark

The Saudis are going to buy approximately a freaking lot of our weapons to upgrade their air power. Advanced F15s and various helicopters are the primary purchases. The Israelis, who could have mounted protests to scale back or delay the purchases, are quiet:

Analysts saw the deal as posing little threat to Israel, and, in the way it deepens US-Saudi ties, actually benefitting the Jewish state.

Israeli leaders as a matter of habit will criticise the deal, said Yiftah Shapir, a military expert at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.

"But in this case it's not a real threat to Israel. We really have to see it as directed against Iran. In this case, Israel and Saudi Arabia are on the same side. They are not used to it," he said.

That's awfully agreeable of the Israelis. Sure, the fighters would deploy against Iran. But in theory, at least, they could be used against Israel in the highly unlikely event that Egypt, Syria, and Jordan allied to wage war on Israel.

So the fact that Saudi Arabia and Israel both see Iran as a common foe wouldn't stop an Israeli effort against the sale, even if the purpose was just to leverage something from America or Saudi Arabia. In my opinion, at least.

And if I was in charge of Israel, what would I want from Saudi Arabia? Why, an air corridor through Saudi Arabia and possibly permission to temporarily set up on the ground inside Saudi Arabia in case Israel decides to strike Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

And from America I'd want a green light for such an attack and perhaps permission for damaged Israeli planes to land at American controlled air fields closer to Iran.

When a potentially $90 billion arms sale seems to be greased for easy passage, I have to wonder why.

Looking for Love in All the Wrong Places

So will President Obama seek a dramatic foreign policy diplomatic agreement to salvage a loss of domestic policy influence after November? That's what Stratfor speculates about:

That leaves another option that we have suggested before, one that would appeal both to Obama’s sensibility and to his political situation: pulling a Nixon. In 1971, Richard Nixon reached out to China while Chinese weapons were being used to kill American soldiers in Vietnam. Roosevelt did the same with the Soviets in 1941. There is a tradition in the United States of a diplomatic stroke with ideological enemies to achieve strategic ends.

Diplomatic strokes appeal to Obama. They also would appeal to his political base, while any agreement with Iran that would contribute to an American withdrawal from Iraq and perhaps from Afghanistan would appeal to the center. The Republicans would be appalled, but Obama can’t win them over anyway so it doesn’t matter. Indeed, he can use their hostility to strengthen his own base.

What the settlement with Iran might look like is murky at best. Whether Iran has any interest in such a settlement is murkier still. But if Obama gets hammered in the midterms, his domestic agenda will be frozen. He doesn’t have the personal strength and credibility to run against Congress for two years and then get re-elected. He retains his power in foreign affairs but he has not gotten traction on a multilateral reconstruction of America’s global popularity. He has two wars ongoing, plus a major challenge from Iran. Attacking Iran from the air might or might not work, and it could weaken him politically. That leaves him with running against Congress or addressing the Middle East with a diplomatic masterstroke.

It is difficult to know the ways of presidents, particularly one who has tried hard to be personally enigmatic. But it is easier to measure the political pressures that are confronting him and shaping his decisions. I wouldn’t be so bold as to predict his actions, but I would argue that he faces some unappetizing choices that he could solve with a very bold move in foreign policy. His options on the domestic side will disappear if the polls are right.

Interesting.

So what diplomatic deal could the president seek?

A grand bargain with Iran over their nukes? If we could have gotten that, I imagine President Obama would have gotten it by now. Iran wants nukes and will do nothing more than pretend they have agreed. And they are possibly too arrogant to even pretend.

Solve the Israel-Palestinian issue? Good luck with that.

A deal that puts the Taliban in a power-sharing deal in Afghanistan? That seems unlikely for the enemy in the "necessary" and "good" "real" war.

Betray Taiwan to China? Since we are selling weapons, that is unlikely.

Normalize relations with Cuba? Who really cares about Cuba any more?

Normalize relations with Burma? Again, who cares?

A deal with Venezuela? What could the deal be? He gets to be a douche bag and we ignore him? Done and done.

The only place he could make a deal with an enemy that would get notice is with North Korea. I don't think the deal would be with North Korea, however. North Korea won't deal over their nukes. But what if we cut a deal with China for the Chinese to invade North Korea to end their nuclear programs in exchange for our approval of the invasion and annexation?

I think it is a bad idea to let China go all the way to the DMZ and would rather partition North Korea with the Chinese (with South Korea getting part and a rump North Korea remaining between the two zones).

I still think that squeezing North Korea will lead to their collapse before they can become a nuclear threat, but a deal with China over North Korea that ends their nuclear status seems to be the only real diplomatic coup--the wisdom of the coup is another question, of course--that could provide the boost to the president if he must flee the domestic field the next two years.

A Rose By Any Other Name

She did her duty and asked for no fame. Nobody knew what she did during the Second World War.

And she died without anyone to bury her:

Eileen Nearne died aged 89 at her home in the town of Torquay on September 2. In the absence of any known relatives to make funeral arrangements, authorities entered the flat to take charge several days later, a local council spokeswoman said. A search for documents that might help locate relatives instead yielded a treasure trove of medals and papers that revealed the life of a woman once known as "Agent Rose," who defied the Nazis as a wireless operator in occupied France.

The Royal British Legion stepped up to arrange the funeral for that remarkable woman.

Rest in Peace, Eileen Nearne. And thank you.

Hammer and Anvil

Our drone strikes in Pakistan against the Taliban in support of our campaign in Afghanistan continue:

Drone aircraft unleashed two missile attacks in a lawless tribal region on the Afghan border Tuesday, making September the most intense period of U.S. strikes in Pakistan since they began in 2004, intelligence officials said. ...


American officials said the airstrikes were designed to degrade the Haqqanis' operations on the Pakistani side of the border, creating a "hammer-and-anvil" effect as U.S. special operations forces carry out raids against their fighters across the frontier in Afghanistan. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing classified operations.

I mentioned this hammer and anvil concept before.

Climate Changes

Damn that man-caused global warming!

Climate change is exposing reindeer hunting gear used by the Vikings' ancestors faster than archaeologists can collect it from ice thawing in northern Europe's highest mountains.

The artifacts are astounding:

Specialized hunting sticks, bows and arrows and even a 3,400-year-old leather shoe have been among finds since 2006 from a melt in the Jotunheimen mountains, the home of the "Ice Giants" of Norse mythology.

But, wait! Let's follow the logic. Dastardly man-caused global warming is melting ice exposing human artifacts. Which means that humans had to walk that land to leave them there to be found. Which means?

Say it! Saay it!!!!



I'll say it. It means that the temperature was at least as warm as it is today. And it is unlikely that human industry caused the warmth. Says the article:

"It's like a time machine...the ice has not been this small for many, many centuries," said Lars Piloe, a Danish scientist heading a team of "snow patch archaeologists" on newly bare ground 1,850 meters (6,070 ft) above sea level in mid-Norway.

It's like climate changes without us, or something!

Off With Our Heads

Because when Europeans look at Americans, it is always sentence before verdict.