Weekend Data Dump

Drone mania hasn't dethroned the king of battle: "While drones are increasingly influential on the battlefield, artillery is a mainstay for both armies, and Ukraine is having to balance its use of various calibre shells based on the available supply."

The corrupt morons holding the strings enter the spotlight. 

I worry that reports that corruption has crippled China's military are an effort to appear far when the PLA is close. I say "China is not a 'paper dragon' we can dismiss as a threat. This is a reaction to an article claiming just that which I commented on last week: 'Is China a "paper dragon'?" Don't panic. Prepare.

I don't care if crashing the damaged Peregrine into the Moon could anger "the Navajo Nation, which had called that cargo a 'desecration' of the celestial body." Also don't care about a silly objection by a "professor of art history, archaeology, and space studies". Funny how exceptions to Science! are made.

I condemned the Vermont man who shot three young men of Palestinian origin. The case got sad for progressives. The shooter is not MAGA. He supported Hamas and Biden. He's a progressive hippie. He hates America. He's mentally ill. The media said "Islamophobia". Few saw the truth. Via Instapundit.

Why do Greens hate people so much? Via Instapundit.

How does Ukraine make peace with Russia? "[Russians are kept supportive] by astute propaganda depicting Russia as under siege by the West and NATO. Opinion polls show wide popular support for this paranoid fantasy, but some Russians continue to struggle for better government and beneficial reforms."

As Russians die to conquer Ukraine: "China, the only real threat to Russia, quietly makes progress in the east. There China has claims on much of the Russian Far East and is openly replacing Russia as the primary economic, military, and political force in Central Asia."

If true, that can't be good for Russian troop morale: "About 40 percent of Russian casualties are dead compared to only 20 percent of Ukrainian casualties because the Russians in this war get no battlefield medical treatment[.]"

Even Nazis, Japanese militants, and the Kaiser's Germany admitted defeat when things got too bad for their own people. But you really want to claim we're responsible for the plight of Gazans who cheered when Hamas raped and murdered their way into Israel on October 7, 2023 to start this war?

Corruption: "Russia is descending into a Third World state known as a resource kleptocracy but run by a for-real gangster confederacy. The only difference with Russia is that they have nuclear and biological weapons from before the Soviet Union collapsed."

TBI-induced PTSD: "The debilitating effects of the concussive impact are not immediately obvious. The army discovered that over time, even in peacetime, troops exposed to these loud noises developed behavioral problem, such as becoming more easily agitated and prone to unexpected aggressive behavior."

The Houthi's still have weapons and personnel to fire them: "The anti-ship cruise missile was fired at the USS Laboon in the southern Red Sea and downed off the port city of Hudaydah, on Yemen’s west coast, by a US fighter jet." If the Houthi's can't be deterred, they can still die.

Via Instapundit, I think they are confused about a promise versus a threat. And now for something completely different:

Xi discovered that corruption has undermined his military. On the bright side, Xi won't order his military into action in the mistaken belief his military is outstanding. Unless he is trying to appear far when near.

Yes, Iran has been at war with America since the Shah was overthrown: "For decades a low-intensity regional war in the Middle East has been ongoing, but it took Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 to bring this conflict into sharper focus." Thinking otherwise is folly.

Stop. Don't. Come back.

So the man yelled what as he tried to hack to death three New York City cops on New Year's Eve, 2022? Huh. Wonder why I never heard of this? We'll have no "national conversation," I guess. Tip to PJ Media.

Exactly! I've said that refusing to defeat an enemy with full military power is a safety net for an enemy who knows it has few reasons not to continue fighting beyond what one could consider prudent because it would risk defeat. If a draw is the worst outcome, why not take risks if you can avoid consequences?

Pouring concrete is fun and easy: "The Philippines will develop islands in the South China Sea that it considers part of its territory to make them more habitable for troops, Manila's military chief Romeo Brawner told reporters on Monday." That's my advice.

More Russian reliance on trade with China pushes Russia further into vassal status: "Trade between China and Russia hit a record high in 2023, official data from Beijing showed on Friday, as commerce with the United States fell for the first time in four years on the back of geopolitical tensions."

Via Instapundit, why is global warming automatically bad? I've asked how it is possible that we live in the ideal climate and must prevent it from going any higher no matter what the cost. I'd like to know what the ideal global temperature is before decided we must turn the dial down.

Honored to be their victim: "A measure by Bernie Sanders would order a report on whether Israel had committed human rights violations. It stands little chance of passage but reflects some Democrats’ resistance to providing unfettered aid." Berzerkers need goodlife.

Trump didn't stage a military coup while president and Milley secretly talked to the PRC--nonpartisan military, indeed--so this kind of bizarre worry is either projection or a sign of severe mental illness. Get a grip, people. This fear is delusional and justifies lawless behavior to stop him.

Learning from Ukrainian command post experience. It's hard to command and control without being a missile magnet.

How NATO surveillance aircraft from within NATO air space are "peering with electronic eyes across southern Ukraine and the Black Sea to Russian-occupied Crimea and beyond." They are an expensive and important part of Ukraine's drone successes.

If looks could kill--verified.

The Army prepares for Arctic warfare by training in Alaska and the Himalayan Mountains. Wait. What? Doesn't global warming mean the training should be in the Mojave Desert? Well, just in case (tip to PJ Media) the predictions are wrong, I approve.

How special forces and Ukrainians adapted Cossack practices to wage irregular warfare.

Israel's mobilization harms Israel's economy while the war rages. Also: "Israel uses conscription, mainly to provide trained reservists." I noted that Germany wants to revive conscription because it will quickly build a pool of reservists for a big war. Which is why the Treaty of Versailles had banned conscription.

Decoupling. 

How ESPN fluffed the on-air talent with fake Emmy awards. Tip to Instapundit.

Nice try. But I don't think Hollywood progressives feel shame. #MeTooExceptaJew Tip to Instapundit.

Russia likes to wave their nukes around: "Threatening a nuclear war of annihilation is one of Moscow’s favorite sports. High level Russian nuclear threats are commonplace." With their long border stripped of troops for Ukraine, the need for nukes is higher. Do they work?

Hell, the man could use the wrong pronoun in Britain and get away with it! Europeans spend too much time worrying about populist conservatives. 

WTAF: "The Houthis were emerging as Hamas’s hot new rival in the affections of bourgeois leftists." Tip to Instapundit.

The Navy may add hypervelocity rounds for 5" deck guns. I mentioned this initiative before and I've long wanted networked, long-range cannons for the fleet.

"Disaggregation" is the new term of art, apparently. I'm so old I remember "network-centric" warfare. For all I know there are other terms lost in the fog of pre-Internet publications.

Ukraine added explosive reactive armor to its Abrams tanks.

That report about Germany expecting Russia to invade was just a wargaming scenario. This isn't the first time I've read reports about "intelligence assessments" that turned out to be scenarios. I have a few scenarios, too.

A zipper control problem, I imagine. [LATER: I stand corrected?]

Iran fired “reckless and imprecise” shots across America's bow by purportedly striking terrorists in Syria and Iraq.

So the Houthis aren't deterred--and are inspired--because America uses cheap and easy aerial strikes that don't show commitment? That's funny. If we go in on the ground others say we are "falling into their trap." My view is that only ineffective force is counter-productive.

Foreign governments are already looking to lock in good deals now or put off talks for a year in anticipation of bad or good changes if Trump wins this year. I think the Europeans especially are in an embarrassing panic mode. Just who was in thrall to Putin, anyway?

Japan has a peace constitution so there's no way this has military applications: "EX-Fusion, an Osaka-based startup, plans to develop a ground-based laser system to help knock out space junk from the ground." Tip to Instapundit.

We're doomed! Admit failure and try to cope! Run away! We surely need to keep a number of allies in the line. But it is not futile. It's always nice if other countries defend our interests for us. I wouldn't count on it.

But it won't implement itself: "The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – known simply as AUKUS – is among the most interesting alliances in recent memory, and it has the potential to be among the most consequential in the world in 2024."

Advice that should not need to be offered: "America’s Allies Shouldn’t Side With Hamas". Hamas delenda est.

Unclear on the concept: "Has [Israel] been proportional to the damage that Hamas inflicted on Israel?" Zakaria doesn't understand what "proportionality" requires. Blaming Netanyahu for the rabid opposition that distracted Israel is bizarre. Zakaria can't find his own buttocks with both hands and a GPS signal.

Apparently I was totally wrong to suspect that the Hamas tunnel network under Gaza was grossly exaggerated.

The price of fighting enemies: "U.S. Navy SEALs seized Iranian-made missile parts and other weaponry from a ship bound for Yemen's Houthi rebels in a raid last week that saw two of its commandos go missing, the U.S. military said Tuesday."

Fortunately no casualties and the ship remains seaworthy: "Yemen's Huthi rebels hit a US-owned cargo vessel with a missile on Monday, the US military said[.]" 

Ecuador: "The response from newly-elected President Daniel Noboa has been to designate 22 gangs as terrorist organisations and declare war, stating that Ecuador is in an 'internal armed conflict'. The country is now in a two-month state of emergency, with nightly curfews and the military patrolling the streets."

He's Mister Short-Term Memory! "Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Ukraine's statehood could suffer an "irreparable blow" if the pattern of the war continued, and Russia would never be forced to abandon the gains it had made." Putin set the pattern to inflict the irreparable blow!

God bless those still willing to fight for America: "The Army is overstaffed with infantry and armor lieutenants and needs some of them who were commissioned in 2021 to move into combat-support jobs, service officials announced Tuesday."

No separate Space Reserve: "The Space Force will become the nation’s first military service that allows troops to switch between full-time and part-time work without formally transferring to a Reserve component or the National Guard." I'm against a Space National Guard until we have a space territory.

A friend in need: "Army helicopters will deliver supplies to an earthquake-devastated area of central Japan, the U.S. military said Tuesday, less than a week after Tokyo announced it was not accepting help from other nations."

France intends to supply Ukraine with more Scalp cruise missiles and Caesar artillery systems. Also: "France is finalizing a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine similar to the one concluded by the U.K. last week."

This isn't large. But in Putin's Russia, is this the tip of the iceberg? "Russia has been hit by its biggest civil protest since Putin invaded Ukraine - with 10,000 taking to the streets and violent clashes breaking out over the jailing of an anti-war activist." But don't get your hopes up yet.

This was not public knowledge: "Indian and Chinese soldiers clashed at least two times in 2022 along their Himalayan frontier where they have been involved in a bitter standoff since 2020, according to new details that have emerged from the Indian Army's gallantry award citations."

You think you hate and distrust our media enough. You don't. 

"Bullets by the Billions".

Biden strikes to send signals: "Instead, the White House has taken a path of diplomacy über alles, attempting to make nice with everyone, including inveterate foes. This reduces American deterrence and allows bad actors free rein." Worse, Islamists on a mission from God must be killed--not deterred.

Homeland defense: "If the Pentagon would replace all of the aged interceptors at Fort Greely with 60 multi-warhead Next Generation Interceptors, and build a second such site of comparable size near the East Coast, U.S. defenders would be much more capable of protecting the homeland from nuclear attack."

Normally I don't use Ukrainian or Russian media. But: "A Russian Su-25 ground attack aircraft came perilously close to colliding with a Ukrainian UAV in eastern Ukraine[.]" That would be a fluke. But could drones ambush enemy aircraft taking off from airfields?

Ship-killer: "The U.S. Army has successfully flight tested a new seeker that will help transform its new Precision Strike Missile short-range ballistic missile into weapon that can strike moving ships and enemy air defenses." Now China needs to review the kill chain from the receiving end.

Deterrence isn't working: "The U.S. military carried out preemptive strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen on Tuesday, destroying four anti-ship ballistic missiles that the rebels were ready to launch, according to five U.S. officials." Let's try relentless death and destruction. 

I mentioned in an earlier entry that Iran's strikes sent a message: "While they all seem to have had their own objectives, they clearly serve as a timely demonstration of Iran's ability to execute precision ballistic missile strikes close to and far beyond its borders." Note too that they were Revolutionary Guard weapons.

Are the various wars and challenges a rising war of civilizations? Perhaps. But I think the threats are splintered and could be fractured along their fault lines.

Because of China's near monopoly on EV batteries: "Rather than a spur to greater production, the absurdly named Inflation Reduction Act seems more like the China Resuscitation Act." Unless this is a clever ploy to get China to go down a dead end production strategy, this seems bad for America.

Civilizational suicide? "The obsession of NATO and the U.S. military in fighting climate change and white nationalism is borderline insane at a time when there are growing concerns about their war-fighting ability, from the quality of troops to the deteriorated industrial base that supports them."

Relatively few people, generally well off financially, can use EVs. Why anyone in cold climates would want one is beyond me. Tip to Instapundit.

Conservative protesters are hounded and hunted for years. Progressive protesters are tolerated. So the latter are just regime street muscle. Have no doubt this is Law Enforcement Theater. Tips to Instapundit. Also, yes, Obama/Biden loooves Iran's mullahs.

They chant, march, and riot in support of Hamas monsters. It isn't a shock that they are monstrous, too: "Anti-Israel protesters target NYC cancer hospital for ‘complicity in genocide’ as terrified Jewish resident says ‘I thought I was in Germany in 1939’[.]" Tip to Instapundit.

Maybe my semi-jest in an earlier entry is closer to reality than I imagined: "Capital is pouring into factories that make items such as electric vehicles, batteries and renewable-energy gear as Beijing looks for new sources of growth[.]" Is that really a solid foundation? 

Journalists write the first draft of history disinformation. Only for progressive causes, naturally. Why isn't the Left to blame for encouraging a dangerous trek to illegally enter America? You think you hate and distrust our media enough. You don't. Immigration is good--if done on our terms. Tip to Instapundit.

China is no longer the most populous country and its population decline is accelerating: "The latest data shows that the fertility rate is less than half of the replacement rate of 2.1, said He Yafu, an independent demographer based in Guangdong."

In the 1959-1960 swastika wave, the KGB "launched an ambitious disinformation campaign against West Germany carried out by Soviet secret agents in East Germany" by recruiting neo-Nazis. What is the origin of the current wave of pro-Hamas Jew hatred? Colleges sure prepared fertile ground. Via Instapundit.

Red Sea versus Strait of Hormuz oil traffic: "Some 7 million barrels of crude oil and products transit the Red Sea daily, compared to 18 million barrels that transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from the trade analytics firm Kpler." That's progress. But Plan B is still too small. 

Form over function: "The European Commission has rebuked Germany for unilaterally pledging £6 billion in aid for Ukraine in the latest twist in a row between Paris and Berlin over support for Kyiv." The EU wants the authority to aid Ukraine more than it wants aid for Ukraine.

Of course, you realize this means war: "The change would break with decades of North Korean doctrine, under Kim’s father and grandfather, that sought to unify with the South through peaceful means, even while signaling a readiness for war." Wait. What? North Korea believes it's been peaceful up to now?

I worry this could be true but don't assume China's military is as good as it looks: "Historian and author Niall Ferguson on Tuesday predicted that China is most likely to win the war against the United States (US) over Taiwan[.]" But you need to consult the Definitions Section for "Victory".

Strategery: "An increasingly isolated Russia is now dependent on China for both its military and economic ends, the European Commission’s president said Tuesday." I think Putin wanted a short and glorious conquest of Ukraine mainly to break NATO so Russian could pivot to oppose China. Oops. 

NATO is increasingly aware that the Russian threat was not eliminated by winning the Cold War. The immediate question is whether NATO will fight the first campaign in Ukraine by helping Ukraine defeat the invasion.

Tensions: "Pakistan and Iran have both conducted strikes on each other’s territories in an unprecedented escalation of hostilities between the neighbors, at a time when tensions have risen sharply across the Middle East and beyond." Each attacked separatists. Pakistan's nukes didn't deter Iran from striking.

Don't misinterpret the idea the Black Sea is the center of gravity of the Winter War of 2022. The air and naval campaign pushing Russia's fleet, air defenses, logistics, and air power from Crimea is a supporting effort. This war will be decided by land campaigns over Crimea. 

If the the bulk fuel capacity of the old, leaky Red Hill storage facility in Hawaii is eliminated without an adequate replacement--and ships to move the fuel--operations across the vast Pacific will be impossible. Putting effing solar panels on the Pentagon is not going to solve that problem.

Say, about Putin's chess master brilliance: "Russia is now moving from [China's] trading partner to the lower tribute state status." Oops. I've never been impressed by Putin.

Monster.

Democrats privatized gross violations of the Constitution's protected civil liberties. And shame on the companies for going along. Tip to Instapundit.

North Korea made a lot of profit from Russia with their ammunition garage sale. How quickly can North Korea replenish their stocks? Is North Korea's declaration of South Korea as their primary enemy some chest-beating and poo flinging to obscure the inability to sustain artillery fire until ammo is replaced?

Smart Diplomacy®: "Why did the Biden administration delist the Houthis [as terrorists]? Brutal truth: It was following the Obama administration's delusion, believing a grand peace deal and nuclear weapons agreement with Iran's imperialist ayatollahs was possible." Obama/Biden loooves mullah-run Iran.

Tom Friedman believes the Palestinian question is the key to peace in the Middle East. Blinken agrees. Of course Blinken agrees. As for Friedman, I'm not saying you couldn't drown in a pool of that monster's wisdom. But you would have to be drunk and face down to do so. Naturally they're mingling in Davos.

Cause concerns: "The U.S. military fired another wave of ship- and submarine-launch missile strikes against Houthi-controlled sites Wednesday[.]"

China will need to worry that if it escalates its subliminal aggression against Filipino territory in the South China Sea that the Philippines could inflict an embarrassing loss on the PLA Navy: "The Philippines is still considering whether to acquire its first-ever submarine[.]"

The Navy has only confirmed use of expensive SM-2 missiles against Houthi missiles and drones. But 13 years ago:"“We had a specific tactic to go after [drones], with a specific munition that we could shoot out our gun,” [Vice Admiral] McLane said. Gun-fired? Good.

The defense-industrial base gets attention: "A week after releasing its first industrial strategy, the Pentagon is sprinting to meet with companies on how to put it into action." Good. We have an imperative need for that.

DEI destroys excellence and cohesion in our military academies. The commie cadet was a canary in the coal mine. But we ignored that warning.

After a couple years of restrained help for Ukraine, France seems to be stepping up. I'll guess Macron hopes Trump will open up opportunities for him through the EU.

Speculation about a Russian winter offensive. There will be winter attacks. But will it rise to the level of an "offensive"? Doesn't seem like Russia has the men or materiel for that.

About that French artillery initiative I noted earlier: "France and the United States will lead a coalition of 23 countries to provide artillery and ammunition to Ukraine, French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu said Jan. 18."

Exactly: "If Biden wants peace, he needs to stop punishing our allies while rewarding Iran[.]" Why Democrats oddly looove mullah-run Iran is beyond me.

Army basic training. I went through it in my mid-20s. My advice is be able to do 30 good push ups before getting there and be healthy enough to rapidly gear up to running two miles. Don't worry, everyone finds it tough. You'll make it. Focus on making it to the next meal. Count the end of each day as a victory. Repeat.

Peace constitution through strength: "Japan signed a deal with the United States on Thursday to purchase up to 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles as part of its ongoing military buildup in response to increased regional threats." China effed up.

Environmentalist-based-urban planning is a failure--except when it is a plot by the wealthy to keep the icky upwardly mobile middle class away from the areas they staked out first. Tip to Instapundit. In my fraternity I once claimed my major was "inter-urban development" because it sounded especially BS-like.

U.S. Navy planes conducted a fifth strike against Houthi anti-ship missile assets.

The Philippines is willing to speak softly: "China and the Philippines agreed to improve maritime communication and to properly manage conflicts and differences through friendly talks in regards to issues around the South China Sea, their foreign ministries said in a statement."

The post-October 7th resolve to crush Hamas is faltering rather quickly: "Rifts are emerging among top Israeli officials over the handling of the war against Hamas in Gaza."

Nice in peacetime, but they'd be vulnerable to attack during war: "The United States and Japan are looking to make a deal for Japanese shipyards to regularly overhaul and maintain U.S. Navy warships so they can stay in Asian waters ready for any potential conflict." Ultimately we need more capacity in CONUS.

Claiming Trump's failure to stop a surge of illegal migrants in 2019 ignores that Democrats fought border security tooth and nail and that progressives encouraged illegal migration. We don't need to "overhaul" laws to control the border. We need the confidence that it is good to control the terms of immigration.

Burke destroyers get the "Dad Bod" look with upgrades.

Putin is reaping what he sowed: "90,000 [NATO] allied troops are slated to take part in Steadfast Defender, which would make it the largest gathering of troops for an exercise on the Continent in decades." Chess master, indeed. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

It needs to be said: "Argentina’s newly elected libertarian president, Javier Milei, has publicly berated the growing influence of Western ‘Neo-Marxists’ at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum." Face it, Davos is Epstein's Mountain plus Leftist struggle sessions (tip to The Morning Briefing).

Getting Iranian missiles to Russia. 

Those people didn't live in harmony with the rainforest: "Researchers have detected a cluster of lost 2,500-year-old cities at the foothills of the Andes in the Amazon rainforest." The jungle re-conquered the cities. I read, in 1491, that Spanish conquerors destroyed records of pre-Colombian people. Via Instapundit.

Xi's shiny military is rife with problems: "China recently purged or removed from their positions over a dozen senior officers of the army, navy, and air force. The government conducted an inspection of the forces the purged officers commanded and found numerous deficiencies." An inflated view is dangerous.

It's actually kind of funny that fear of Trump seems to be getting Europeans to step up for Ukraine: "[The] European Union’s decision on additional aid for Ukraine, worth 50 billion euros ($54.43 billion), remains pending." That's working better than polite requests from Biden.

Tie the serfs to a tiny plot of land: "Opposition to car-oriented suburban development, notes historian Robert Bruegmann, reminded him of the Duke of Wellington’s complaint that trains would 'only encourage the common people to move around needlessly.'" EVs limit your radius to your extension cord.

Hezbollah's dilemma: "behind Nasrallah’s warning that Israel would regret it if it attacked Lebanon, Hezbollah’s half-hearted retaliation to Israel’s lethal firepower betrayed its reluctance for all-out war." But at some point it may believe  losing a war is better than losing its claim to protect Palestinians from Israel.

A reminder that woke lips sink ships.

Ah, just friends we haven't made yet! "Yemen’s Shia rebels, led by the Houthi tribe, have used their large stockpile of Iranian missiles to block access to the Suez Canal. This capability developed over the last decade as the rebels launched attacks on more distant targets." They have their own recon capability, too.

Making warships run with fewer sailors. But what about fighting and damage control. Success in that with fewer sailors remains unproven.

Hahaha. Buh bye. Tip to Instapundit.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat: "The U.S. on Friday launched a sixth round of strikes on the Houthis in Yemen, a U.S. defense official confirmed to The Hill." Destruction--not deterrence--should be the goal. Even the angriest goat lover without anti-ship missiles can't attack ships with missiles.

Ouch: "An investigation is under way after two UK warships collided at a port in Bahrain, the Royal Navy says." Every Royal Navy ship is precious these days.

I liked it better when our elites liked America: "The nation’s ruling class holds deeply authoritarian opinions widely divorced from the rest of the American electorate, finds a survey out this week." They think we have too much freedom. Go to Hell. Tip to Instapundit.

Israel creates more good Revolutionary Guard leaders: "Four senior members of Iran's security forces have been killed in a suspected air strike on the Syrian capital."

How shoplifters "over-fished" when Democrats lifted their catch limit. And those Democrats are oblivious about the reason for the inevitable outcome, preferring the comforting accusation of racism. These people put on their shoes and socks in that order, don't they?

I'd just like to note that the esteemed representative should be torn down for evoking the fight to preserve slavery with her name honoring the confederate general, Robert E. Lee.

So sad that "long Covid" memory loss at Axios is still running rampant.

Don't be silly, Progressives know all Moslems look alike: "For while woke activists in the West might still speak of Muslims as a bloc, if not a blob, elsewhere in the world Muslims are at war." As if members of a victim class have agency! I touched on this attitude versus Islamic world diversity in this post.

At some level I worry that seizing Russian assets to help Ukraine fight the Russian invasion undermines the global financial system. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an assault on the UN system of unified resistance to conquering aggressors. So financial seizure is the lesser of two evils.

This author is a moron. Or maybe just on the other side. He claims America's "technology and aviation" effort to stop Houthi missile attacks on civilian ships will "backfire". But the Houthi threat is an aerial technology effort vulnerable to countering technology. Just another "Let the Wookie win" faux analysis.

Russia has used a massive Soviet-era anti-ship missile to attack a land target in Ukraine.

Make sure the fortifications are built in depth: "Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have approved the construction of defensive installations alongside their borders with Russia and Belarus, which will include a network of bunkers." Stopping the Russians at the border invites the defenders' destruction.

Cost overruns for the new Sentinel ICBM. Sigh. We really need new, reliable nuclear missiles for deterrence.

Automaker-government collusion to grossly inflate electric vehicle "mileage" efficiency. Tip to Instapundit.

This is sad. A beautiful woman entered uncanny valley via excessive plastic surgery. I would not have known they were the same person just looking at the pictures. Something is broken inside to do this to yourself. Tip to Instapundit.

Iran is our enemy: "The US military's Central Command said an Iran-backed militia targeted the Al Asad airbase, which hosts American troops, with ballistic missiles and rockets on Saturday evening." We intercepted most of the missiles, apparently. Potential American TBI casualties plus one Iraqi wounded.

I remain confused about the level of casualties in the Winter War of 2022. The numbers don't seem to add up. One problem is that different sources claim different types of casualties. I'd like to see KIA, WIA, and non-combat deaths and injuries. And I've never seen POW numbers, let alone MIA.

I continue to be really confused about some conservatives suddenly unwilling to resist Russia; and about liberals in general suddenly hard core anti-Russia warriors. 

Too little value; too much cost: "Of 100 random freshmen enrolling in college today, 40 will not graduate. Of the remaining 60 that earn a degree in six years, 20 will end up chronically underemployed." I graduated from Michigan in 7.5 years, borrowing under $3,000. It worked out well. Via Instapundit.

About that Ukrainian Bradley duel with a Russian T-90: "Simply blinding the tank by destroying its sensors can result in a mission kill, leaving it repairable but useless on the battlefield, too." That 25mm bun showed there is more than one way to skin a cat.

On the road to destruction: "U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) confirmed Saturday yet another airstrike on Houthi weaponry in the region of the Red Sea." Keep hitting Houthi units that have anti-ship or related recon systems.

Weekend Data Dump

Fareed Zakaria fluffed President Biden something fierce. I haven't commented on Zakaria in ages. But it is still true that he couldn't find his own buttocks with both hands and a GPS signal.

Mistakes like this happen when Supreme Court justices forget they are judging laws for constitutionality and think they are quasi-legislative actors who need statistics to back their favored policies. Judges, legislators, and executives should stay in their lanes and do their actual jobs. Tip to Instapundit.

Sure: "Ukraine deserves to be in NATO, Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday as he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of the alliance's upcoming summit in Lithuania." Getting something for their approval is one thing. But the bottom line is that Turkey gained great freedom of action when the Soviet Union collapsed and the Russians were pushed back from Turkey's borders in Europe, Asia, and the Black Sea. Turkey doesn't want Russia to again dominate the Black Sea. Ukraine holds that line. Delusions of Ottoman Empire 2.0 grandeur have cleared a bit with the realization that NATO is still useful in a dangerous region.

Strategypage discusses NASAMS and IRIS-T in Ukraine.

Sanctions are no silver bullet: "Russia found that nearby Iran, which has been under varying degrees of sanctions for decades, was a good source of advice on evading sanctions. Even before Russia went total outlaw in Ukraine, they had been cooperating with Iran, North Korea and several other heavily sanctioned nations." But they still hurt the sanctioned state.

Despite Russian aircraft harassing our drones, a drones managed to make a good jihadi in Syria. 

I object to the notion that Germany sending troops to exercise in Australia represents a shift in focus to Asia. Doesn't that imply that Germany had a focus elsewhere? I'd be happier if Germany had a vague image of European security. To be fair, sending 240 ground troops probably is a major fraction of Germany's effective ground power.

Finally: "Turkey agreed Monday to allow Sweden to join the NATO alliance[.]" Hungary had tied its opposition to Turkey's.

China needs to know that even if they quickly conquer Taiwan that the war is far from over. But making sure Taiwan can build whatever advanced defense equipment is flawed if Taiwanese troops lack the will to fight hard. And if we don't intervene quickly. That might just result in China capturing a lot of high-tech defense industry and equipment.

Good grief, this seriously over-states the effects of recent Russian aircraft losses. Russia has lost a tiny fraction of its planes. The real problem is training and how they are used.

This is odd on the surface. I don't think this is proof of a conspiracy with Prigozhin to weed out the disloyal: "The mercenary chief had a three-hour meeting with Putin on June 29, five days after his short-lived rebellion, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said." I think it probably has more to do with stretching out the demise of Prigozhin so Putin can salvage as much of Wagner's combat capabilities as he can for his war effort.

Plausible: "Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead." Based on inheritance records and excess mortality during war. And given the fractured nature of its forces fighting, Russia might not even know the full tally.

I'm not worried that Biden said we are short of artillery ammunition. That means we've reached a floor below which we won't go. Not that we are out. And that issue is well discussed in our media. This is no big reveal to the Russians or Chinese.

I'm calling BS on "bed rotting" as a "trend". A few social media morons showcased it and it is supposedly a trend justifying an article? Not buying it. Via Instapundit.

It is bizarre that Russia is refusing to admit that Crimea is a potential war front: "Russian officials continue to struggle with traffic and logistics issues at the Kerch Strait Bridge associated with the continued tourist season in occupied Crimea." That could bite Russia in the ass if Ukrainian special forces or partisans exploit the needless civilian traffic. Or if panicked Russian civilians knot up ground lines of communication in the event of a Ukrainian offensive or missile attacks that frighten them.

Last week I suspected Hamas-Palestinian Authority disputes; and wondered if Iran and their Hezbollah proxy had a hand in that Jenin situation. Iran has been busy: "Hezbollah appears to be establishing another front behind Israeli lines—both within the country’s official boundaries and the West Bank." Iran wants another rocket arsenal in the West Bank. Maybe Iran is angling to back Hamas and others in a civil war over control of Palestinians in the West Bank. They've already gained ground: "The PA has lost control of the cities of Jenin, Nablus and Tulkram to Iranian allies Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Lion’s Den and Hamas." Would Israel fight where Hezbollah want the fight? Or respond by going to the home base of Hezbollah's power? Or, as that article's author advises, Netanyahu can offer concessions to people who want to kill Jews--to make Biden happy.

Russia has about 2,000 small-payload Iranian Shahed-136 suicide drones/cruise missiles apparently being held in reserve for something. Perhaps that's Russia's main weapon to strike Ukrainian troops if they break through Russian lines. I've wondered if Russia's air force would do that. Maybe Russia knows its conventional air force can't do the job at an acceptable cost.

I salute him for aiming high: "On July 13, retired Air Force Lt. Col. James Harvey III will celebrate his 100th birthday, the latest milestone for an original Tuskegee Airman who also won the first ever ‘Top Gun’ trophy and was one of the first African American fighter jet pilots."

It's help for Ukraine and real-world training for the Australians: "Australia will send a Royal Australian Air Force surveillance aircraft to Germany to help support Ukraine by protecting vital humanitarian and military supply lines."

Chutzpah.

So strange that they risk so much to get to the so-called racist West. Get back to me when they risk that much trying to leave.

Huh: "A U.S. intelligence assessment says Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons at the moment but has ramped up activities that could help it develop them." Two things. One: "At the moment". Funny no assessment was publicized in "another moment". Two: "Ramping up activities" to help build nuclear weapons is Iran's nuclear weapons program. Okay, three.

After Russia's first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, "the U.S. Army realized that it had a major deficit in both capabilities and capacity to conduct long-range fires. The U.S. Army was both outranged and outnumbered by Russia’s long-range fires systems." Also, the Army realized the Air Force isn't highly interested in providing close air support. Naturally, the God of War needs an offering.

Island hopping campaign continues: "China and the Solomon Islands on Monday signed a deal on police cooperation as part of an upgrade of their relations to a 'comprehensive strategic partnership[.]'"

Mowing the jihadi grass in Somalia. Pretending Somalia is a country that can be reformed is clearly insane at this point, isn't it? 

Totally non-shocking news after Erdogan backs Sweden's membership in NATO: "US President Joe Biden's administration has backed Turkey's desire to purchase 40 new Lockheed Martin Corp F-16 fighter jets along with modernization kits for its existing warplanes from the US."

So our media is going with "Biden yells at all his staff for being incompetent because he's a strong alpha male"? That would be quite the late-stage development after merely being a mean, bullying, braggart all his adult life. But if true, doesn't that say little about his ability to hire quality staff? On the other hand, in that video Biden is clearly--if perhaps inappropriately--speaking to the British soldier. Biden isn't vacantly staring off at God knows what. There's enough to point out without assuming everything is proof of dementia.

My F**k Off reflex is getting a workout this year: "A constitutional law professor at Georgia State University recently said it’s 'unfortunate' that the Michigan 'pronouns' bill making its way through the state legislature is likely unconstitutional." Right, "constitutional law" professor. Tip to Instapundit. 

Why did Finland and Sweden join NATO now? Really? Because Russia invaded Ukraine. Which demonstrated their need to join NATO and also took advantage of Russia being too busy fighting Ukraine to do much about Finland and Sweden. I imagine Ukraine could join NATO while Russia is busy holding off a Chinese security force expedition taking control of portions of Russia's Far East taken from China in the 19th century. The compensation would be NATO military supplies to hold off the Chinese.

After buying 36 of the French land-based planes in 2015, India will buy more: "Nearly three dozen Rafale-Marine fighters will be sold to the Indian Navy for use on its locally manufactured aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant, according to senior officials familiar with the developments." The most important Indian defense decision of the decade enters its second decade with little progress.

Ukraine may have converted ancient S-200 air defense missiles to short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles.

Yeah, it angers me that organizations needlessly enter politics. Back in the 1980s I remember being annoyed that a group advocating protecting rain forests spoiled their message by taking a position on the presidential election. I wasn't pro-burn-down-rain forests, after all. Of course they hated Reagan. Why push away potential supporters of your narrow mission? 

FFS: "U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry was blasted on social media Monday after worrying about how Russia's invasion of Ukraine will affect climate change." I expect nothing less from the worst secretary of state in living memory. And how prescient was I at the end of that post?

NATO agreed to stand by Ukraine and to eventually let Ukraine in the alliance. The Definitions Section is noticeably absent.

Take your time. No rush at all: "A coalition of 11 NATO countries agreed to begin an F-16 training program in Europe this August to train Ukrainian pilots on the warplanes, ending speculation about when the long-awaited training would begin." Tick tock, people.

I believe Russia's decision to invade Ukraine is the source of any problems we have: "Former President Trump ripped President Biden for his decision to send Ukraine cluster bombs and claimed Biden was 'dragging' the United States 'into World War III' by making the controversial decision." Yet another adherent to the "Let the Wookie win" school of strategy.

Support: "As NATO debates the future for Ukraine, Germany has vowed to surge weapons supplies to Kyiv after signing off on a €700 million ($769 million) military aid package covering air defense equipment, infantry fighting vehicles, main battle tanks and artillery ammunition." Also, Germany will sell Australia infantry fighting vehicles.

But on the other hand it is infested with jihadis and has nuclear weapons: "Pakistan turned out to be a slow-motion trainwreck which took decades to devastate Pakistan economically, politically and militarily."

Yeah: "It is unclear if North Korea even has reliable nuclear warheads because they only recently developed working nuclear weapons. Turning these nukes into reliable weapons for ballistic missiles is another chore and it is unclear how effective the North Korean nuclear warheads are."

That's not a lot: "Iran continues to deplete its artillery ammunition inventory in order to supply Russia. The latest deal involves 14,000 152mm shells for D20 towed howitzers, 10,000 high-explosive shells for T-72 tank guns as well as two replacement barrels for the T-72 tank and two replacement barrels for the 122mm D30 towed howitzers." And full price. I wonder if the ammo and barrels are just testing for quality before buying more. Or maybe Iran doesn't have much to sell.

Is Air Force General Brown waving too many red flags to be Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff? "General Brown has not resisted the temptation to opine boldly in public about controversial political issues. The public's trust in the military has been trending downward for the past 20 years and is approaching historic lows. High ranking officers have become openly political, eschewed impartiality, quibbled, or openly lied to the public." To be fair, I'm not sure who I trust these days.

That's about twice the rate it should be for normal maintenance and updates: "As of this year, 18 of the US Navy’s 49 attack submarines — 37% — were out of commission, according to previously undisclosed Navy data published by the Congressional Research Service."

A warning to Iran? "The United States and Israel on Sunday kicked off the second iteration of a new series of war games designed to enable the Israeli air force to partake in long-range strikes on strategic targets hundreds of miles away from the country’s own airspace." I don't believe this administration would support Israel striking Iran's nuclear infrastructure. I imagine this is for the purpose of figuring out how to hinder Israel.

The Army develops HADES, its new ISR plane.

Putin's yappy purse puppy growls: "Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy secretary of Russia's powerful Security Council chaired by President Vladimir Putin, said late on Tuesday that the increase in military assistance to Ukraine by the NATO alliance brings World War Three closer." Putin surely respects Prigozhin more than his court eunuch Medvedev.

I say they need to suck it up and accept we won't replace our freedom of speech with Islam's blasphemy enforcement rules: "Muslim states including Iran and Pakistan on Tuesday said desecration of the Koran amounted to inciting religious hatred and called for accountability, as the U.N. rights body debated a contentious motion in the wake of a Koran burning in Sweden." I say you guys stop the murder of Christians and others first. Then we'll ponder your demand. Who am I kidding? Too many westerners are eager to have excuses to erode freedom of speech.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, I warned against a Ukrainian "porcupine" military strategy because "if Ukraine tries to focus on killing Russian soldiers without stopping them, the flaw is that if the enemy decides it is willing to accept the casualties it will invade and win." And here we are about 50,000 dead Russian soldiers later and Russia shows no sign of willingness to stop. And if it does, it still has a lot of Ukrainian territory.

Doing "for" America what Gavin Newsom did to California is a threat and not a campaign slogan. To be fair, a majority of Californians cheered him on. Will the rest of the country?

Is the biggest part of Turkey's agreement to let Sweden into NATO an apparent Turkish reversal of its flirtation with Russia? Well, Russia forced Turkey to make that choice rather than any NATO diplomacy. Siding with a pariah and being reminded that Russia wants to restore its imperial reach that once bordered Turkey surely did the heavy lifting of this deal. If Turkey wants leverage, I'd expect outreach to distant China. They could cooperate in replacing Russian influence in Central Asia, for example.

Is Germany through its new national security strategy backing NATO in the NATO-EU defense split? "The Federal Government wants to further strengthen the European pillar of the transatlantic defence community. The more our European allies contribute militarily and politically to NATO, the more solid the transatlantic Alliance will be. Europe’s ability to act on its own is increasingly a prerequisite for German and European security." Or is Germany hedging and keeping its options open? Still, in the near term this is a defeat for Macron.

Good grief, how long before Europeans are complaining America doesn't meet the NATO minimum of spending 2% of GDP on defense?

If China thought that inflicting a pandemic on the world would be a net advantage to them, the results won't encourage them. And I don't think China released Covid-19 on purpose. But it is possible that it decided to share it to avoid suffering alone. And that some saw it as an interesting experiment in bio warfare. Tip to Instapundit.

To repeat, I have no moral qualms about providing cluster "bombs" to Ukraine. Peace will come with more Russian body bags going home, as I said the day Russia invaded. And as I called for long before the current invasion. Since 2014, in fact. No Russian soldiers will die from cluster warheads if Russia leaves Ukraine.

The universe is taunting us, right? The Navy is set to implement "Brandon Act" access to mental health service reforms. The Brandon act, indeed.

Remember when the Law of the Sea Treaty would make signers obey international law? "China accused the United States of 'ganging up' and forcing it to accept a 2016 arbitration ruling over claims in the South China Sea, as Washington urged Beijing to halt what it called its routine harassment of vessels of other countries in the region." China signed it. 

Putin's handling of the Wagner Revolt has not quieted apparent discontent within the military and the Russian parliament over the poor command of the war effort. Huh. Interesting.

Remember when you hear that American artillery ammunition can't be sent to Ukraine. That doesn't mean we are low. I assume it means we have a minimum level we don't want to drop below. Also, we would use more air power rather than rely on artillery. And I haven't seen anything that makes me worry NATO air power can't deal with Russian air defenses.

Focus on the latter two tasks: "The US Army National Guard conducted a Special Forces exercise in West Virginia to upskill in counterinsurgency operations, irregular warfare, and interoperability with foreign forces." This is about working as stay-behind forces (or infiltrated after) working with local irregulars and partisans in the NATO Baltic states invaded by Russia. Although my theory is weakened by the fact that the unit in the story is focused on Southwest Asia and the Pacific. Could be Taiwan-related, I suppose. If so, other Special Forces groups are working on the Baltic states.

Russia has taken some Ukrainian territory. Russia has more territorial ambitions. Some Russians talk about part of Alaska. Which one of Putin's failed, expensive ambitions will be too much for Russians?

America's budget deficit is over one trillion dollars already this year. Does anybody really think Air Force complaints that they lack sufficient money were caused by spending less than 10% of that in aid to Ukraine over the last year and a half? In what world do our leaders ever make choices on what to spend money on rather than just borrow/print more of it? Let's have some perspective here.

Is there any clearer proof that an organization is failing at its main task when it branches out into areas it should not go? Teach them the difference between adverbs and adjectives. Tip to Instapundit.

Is Russia running out of the ability to hide the decline in its economy and finances? I did not believe Putin's bravado and statistics. Tip to Instapundit.

The Popov Affair.

So I read that military veterans are supposedly the reason for poor recruiting. I guess that was last week's excuse: "Depending too much on military families could create a 'warrior caste,' [Army Secretary Christine] Wormuth said. Her plans seek to draw in people who have no real connection to the military and to broaden the appeal of service."

Italy will revive its tank force.

This includes replenishing its arsenal after supplying Ukraine: "Britain’s Ministry of Defence is next week expected to lay out what the military will look like in the future in a new review aimed at reshaping the armed forces." Britain will muddle through.

Apparently, Popov was known as spending his soldiers' lives frugally: "Many military bloggers argued that Popov’s dismissal eroded troop morale at a time of relentless Ukrainian attacks. One blogger, Vladislav Shurygin, said it has dealt a 'terrible blow to the entire army,” while another, Roman Saponkov, described it as a 'monstrous terror attack against the army’s morale.'"'

If China wants to exercise their forces around Taiwan, China should expect America to record every electronic signal they emit: "China’s military protested a U.S. Navy P-8A flight through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday, as the PLA continues operating near the island."

Lovely little alliance you have there. It would be a shame if something was to happen to it.

Lovely little empire we had there. It would be a shame if you stood in our way.

Admit it, if a Republican president ordered this, the media would call this a "back door draft": "President Joe Biden signed an executive order Thursday that will allow the Pentagon to tap into reserve forces for deployment to Europe as part of its long-standing NATO mission on the continent."

Huh:"A former Russian commander who has not been seen in public since the Wagner mutiny in June is 'resting', according to a senior MP in Moscow's parliament." And now for something completely different:

I've wondered if the Wagner Revolt was a one-off or a sign of systemic problems: "The most striking consequence of the June revolt is that even some pro-Kremlin media outlets admit that it has exposed the incompetence of the entire state system established under Putin." I was trying not to draw a too-convenient conclusion from what appears to be true.

Oh, FFS: "The House Oversight Committee is finally planning to hold a long-teased hearing on UFOs." It's a target-rich environment for oversight of Biden administration policies, personnel, and programs. And this will take up valuable committee bandwidth. Republicans don't even want to win elections, do they?

Huh. Did the clue bat shake some sense into California? We'll see if that wears off before the bill gets signed.

Serves you right, a-holes: "Pakistan's army said on Friday it was seriously concerned that militants had found safe havens in neighbouring Afghanistan and threatened to take an 'effective response' two days after 12 of its soldiers died in two attacks." Brilliant plan to engineer America's defeat there (admittedly with great American cooperation--as I warned about and feared we were screwing up as time passed).

So what the Netherlands tourism bureau is telling us is that no Dutch woman could be found prettier than a man? Well that's awkward. Smells like woke spirit.

Okay: "Russian tanks simply continue to get decimated by Ukrainian forces in the ongoing war, and the current counteroffensive may well be accelerating the pace at which Russian tanks are destroyed." Or: "Russia has a near endless supply of Soviet tanks in storage, military experts say[.]" Do you wonder why I don't offer certain predictions about the course of the war? 

Not that the proto-empire will give up: "In a prolonged cold war, then, we shouldn’t be surprised if the European Union plays an increasingly subordinate role to Nato." The nations of Europe value NATO's defense orientation in an era of Russian threats. The EU is focused on cheese regulations to entangle the nations of Europe in a proto-empire that keeps the bloody peasants from making European leaders again go to war against each other. In time, the Brussels elites will strip away the prefix.

The battle between Egypt and Ethiopia over control over the Nile River. Can this move beyond battle for control to cooperation?

Uh oh: "One of the positive legacies of the US occupation of Iraq was the introduction of federalism in the country. That legacy is now being dismantled, as Baghdad whittles down the autonomy of the Kurdistan region and, above all, deprives it of its major independent revenue sources."

Hey, good luck with that: "A Reuters article from April of 2023 specifically says Russia has “begun using its T-14 Armata” to fire on Ukrainian positions." Oooh, scary. Seriously, stop flinging panties at Armata. 

Ground-based drone defenses. I've suggested (in Army magazine) that the best way to defend forward combat units from drone swarms is a combat air patrol drone. 

Ultimately, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police at the Battle of the Bouncy House was a Pyrrhic victory over the Canadian trucker protests. Good. The government's behavior toward the protesters was criminal, however. Tip to Instapundit.

North Korea says the Korean peninsula is on the "brink of nuclear war" because of America. I see the North Koreans took the Medvedev Diplomatic Charm class. Yawn. Also, remember when Trump's harsh words were leading to nuclear war, according to critics? North Korea really isn't our fault regardless of who is president.

China probes Palau waters.

Maybe TikTok isn't the problem: "The Chinese government is being called upon to take action to stimulate the economy and create jobs at a time when young people in substantial numbers have adopted an attitude that’s termed the 'four nos': no interest in dating, getting married, buying a home or having a child." China has a positive version of the app, after all.

Using America-class amphibious warships as light carriers fail on survivability and flight operations in heavy seas. I've long warned that the ship is not a carrier. It is an amphibious warship with a secondary light carrier mission.

The number is unknown: "Ukraine's border guard service has confirmed that Wagner mercenaries have now arrived in Belarus from neighbouring Russia."

Wagner troops are not apparently significantly  participating in any combat operations following the Wagner Revolt per the DOD: "we do not see Wagner forces participating in any significant capacity in support of combat operations in Ukraine."

LOL!

 

Every time I worry that Russia is holding back a significant number of recruits to build a reserve army using good equipment, leaders, and supplies being ruthlessly held back from the front, I read something that says I shouldn't worry about that. I would like the universe to ease my worries that are growing again. If I was in charge of the Russian war effort that's exactly what I'd do, taking risks at the front in order to build a force to inflict a military defeat on Ukraine. But I'm to assume Russia wouldn't do this? And I'm to assume we'd detect this if it was happening?

Is Ukraine converting S-200 (SAM-5) air defense missiles for ground attack roles? This is not uncommon. And I'll note that Saddam Hussein smuggled in obsolete SAM-2 air defense missiles to convert them to banned--by the Persian Gulf War ceasefire--ground attack missiles, prior to the Iraq War. If converted, the S-200 would have a ground attack range of 250 to 310 miles, depending on the model of the missile.

Ukraine has built a 155mm truck-mounted howitzer. It's debut was bombarding Russian troops on Snake Island. So far these may be hand-crafted prototypes pressed into service. Let me know when they can be built at scale. The production equipment was moved to western Ukraine. So maybe. Producing the ammunition would be helpful, too.

Let me note that mobilizing 3,000 American reservists for military activities in Europe isn't a sign we are going to war. The trend for using reserves as an operational rather than a strategic reserve increased a lot after the Cold War. Note that the Geocities and AUSA links don't work. Link rot. But that Guard division article I cited is online now.

Well that was a depressing read. Tip to Instapundit.

The replacements keep coming in: "The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the completion of Russia’s spring 2023 conscription cycle on July 15." Although I assume this is for replacing troops that are leaving military service after their term of service is complete. as well as replacing losses. This is still a "special military operation" without troops "in for the duration", I think.

Ukraine seems to have a toe hold on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River on the Kherson front. I keep wondering if Ukraine could be building an underwater bridge to exploit Russian diversion of troops to other fronts.

So, Iran? In Syrian territory against someone? Yemen territory? "An unmanned aerial system from U.S. Air Forces Central’s newly formed Task Force 99 was deployed to conduct intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions against a U.S. adversary in the Middle East — and its performance was 'very effective,' according to a senior Department of Defense official."

The proto-imperial EU is persistent in acting against real threats to it: "David Livingstone, Citigroup’s chief executive for Europe, Middle East and Africa, told The Telegraph that the City has 'not been diminished' by Brexit, adding that efforts by Brussels to create a rival financial centre to London have so far failed to yield meaningful results."

Russia has already used them--with their usual care around civilians. So whatever: "President Vladimir Putin said Russia had a "sufficient stockpile" of cluster bombs and reserved the right to use them if such munitions, the use of which he said he regarded as a crime, were deployed against Russian forces in Ukraine."

The media gets military matters wrong so often than I worry when I see more stories like this: "'I would describe it as a policy of starve, stretch and strike,' [British admiral] Radakin told a British parliamentary committee." What worries me most is the talk of how the Ukrainian counteroffensive isn't designed to defeat Russia's ground forces, but to get an edge at the negotiating table. To me that's a slippery slope to being defeated. Fight to win. The enemy sure is.

Hmmm: "Iraq’s prime minister held talks Sunday with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus during the first trip of its kind to the war-torn country since the 12-year conflict began." Assad was Iran's agent in funneling jihadis into Iraq to bolster Saddam Hussein and then suicide bombers during the Iraq War. Is this meeting a sign that the Arab world is trying to pry Syria from Iran's orbit? Or a sign Iran is pulling Iraq into its orbit, too?