The Winter War of 2022 Invites Serial Wars

Making future invasions of Ukraine more expensive for Russia is not the same as deterring Russia.

My impression is that Ukraine is increasingly challenging Russia's theater-wide initiative with local counter-attacks and its new attack into Russia's Belgorod province. Does this telegraph a new big effort two years after the failed 2023 summer counteroffensive? Or is it just local counter-attacks?

Ukraine's friends begin to look beyond this war, but--and forgive the technical term--this proposal is "stupid":

As U.S.-led talks with Russia and Ukraine progress, without the Europeans at the table, the 27-nation bloc is pressing ahead with a steel “porcupine strategy” aimed at building the Ukrainian armed forces, and the country’s defense industry, into an even more formidable opponent.

If Russia isn't deterred by the hundreds of thousands of killed and crippled from its invasion over the last three years, a European plan like this will add nothing. And if the prospect of even more casualties and economic pain doesn't deter Russia, this kind of European plan will invite Russia to come back again and again for more territory.

Because a porcupine strategy is all about killing enemies to impose a cost they won't want to pay. What on God's green Earth do you think the Ukrainians have been doing the last three+ years? This kind of strategy begins the journey from victory to defeat with a short stop at deterrence.

Without giving Ukraine the capabilities to drive the Russians out of Ukraine, Russia will know it is safe to attack again after reloading for a few years. It will gain more ground that Ukraine doesn't have the weapons to drive back. 

Lather. Rinse. Repeat. And as long as Russia is willing to pay the price for overcoming those figurative quills, eventually Russia has all of Ukraine.

Stop the "porcupine" murder-suicide pact strategy!

UPDATE (Monday): Russia conscripts new recruits in spring and autumn cycles. The pattern is 100,000, or more. This spring, Putin ordered a much larger intake (since 2012) of 18-30 year old males:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called up 160,000 young men for military service against the backdrop of his war against Ukraine.

Losses have been heavier the last half year, or more, and outstripped recruiting. Will this fill the ranks? Or will it bring in young men more prone to insubordination? 

UPDATE (Wednesday): The record wasn't set by much. Perhaps this simply represents expanded training capacity. When does this hit demographic capacity limits?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Has America Forgotten the Purpose of Maritime Power?

In case you missed it on Substack: Lessons for NATO From Russia's Invasion of Ukraine.

In case you missed it on Substack: The Price of Defense and the "Tariff" of Geography.

In case you missed it on Substack: Be Careful What You Wish For.

I try to remain calm in foreign policy, regardless of party, because the first step doesn't have to be the only step. Panicked anger could be appropriate or it could be akin to observing your loved one in vital surgery and screeching as the surgery starts, "Stop that madman! He's stabbing my wife!!" Breathe, people.

Six European NATO navies launched an exercise in the Mediterranean Sea. I just don't worry about a Russian Mediterranean flotilla.

China sets a record--so far--for taunting Japan in the East China Sea.

The sale of future F-47s would have their capabilities reduced by 10% for security. Commence freakout. Allies got zero percent of the F-22. Problematic Turkey got zero percent of the F-35. Selling less capable "monkey models" to allies is a thing.

Australia's Collins-class subs to get Mk. 48 heavy anti-sub torpedoes. Best to get experience prior to AUKUS submarines, eh?

The Houthi may have a better chance to hit our warships than we think. Sailing around in range as target practice rather than waging a campaign to destroy their capabilities will risk that. 

Navy destroyers deployed for the civilian NORTHCOM missions along our southern coasts will have Coast Guard boarding detachments aboard.

As I noted about DOD DEI deletions, "Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a video that mistaken removals will be quickly rectified. 'History is not DEI,' he said, referring to diversity, equity and inclusion." 

China announces it has an effective deep sea cable cutter. China is a-hole. Good to know.

From the "Well, Duh" files.

The Pentagon (rightly) reminds troops that service limits their freedom of speech to maintain cohesion. I hope our active and retired FOGOs got that reminder, too.

Chinese gangsters like Nigeria.

A second American carrier strike group was ordered to CENTCOM. It will replace the group there now. Of course, there could be overlap for a while. 

Getting to the F-47 decision.

European elites are "very nervous" about freedom of speech. To be fair, all autocrats are. That attitude should damn the elites and not the freedom those proto-imperial elites want to kill.

Some are more equal than others, comrades. Tip to Instapundit. To be fair, our socialists are usually at least millionaires.

Is it just me, or is celebrating retaking your own capital a premature "mission accomplished" moment?

Russia continues to kidnap Ukrainian children to absorb them into an aggressive Russia. FDR "uncle Joe'd" evil Stalin. Don't pretend Putin isn't a monster even if we must deal with him.  

If Hamas survives this war, it will still try to destroy Israel. 

Is China's fear of a Russia-America reconciliation pushing it to reach out to Japan and South Korea? 

Europe with its massive GDP can't defend itself against tiny Russia because Europe is politically fragmented? I'm calling BS on this plea for an imperial European Union to subjugate European nations. 

Europe ignored Obama's polite requests to rearm as America pivoted to Asia; breathed a sigh of relief after Trump I so they could ignore the blaring defense industrial base alarm of Russia's invasion of Ukraine during Biden's tenure; and now finds Trump II yelling at them to act.

A reverse Kissinger of America prying Russia away from China would be great. I've long wanted that. But unless that geopolitical flip is based on facing a common foe--China--it will simply be sacrificing a victim to Russia and telling ourselves it will be the last demand. 

1/5 Yeah, don't make that kind of operational security mistake again. This isn't anywhere nearly as bad as a bathroom server for a long-running private email system bypassing government security. Nor is it clear what secret or war plan was exposed. I'm tentatively calling BS on the Signal Kerfuffle. But still, FFS.

If the purpose of American diplomacy is to flip Russia away from China, keeping the talks in Saudi Arabia just between America and Russia is a wise move. 

Come on Pentagon, at least make the Chinese work for their signals intelligence.

Counter-terrorism isn't being cut. I say if it isn't LeadOps, it's basically BS. 

Preparing for the "big one" in the air over Europe.

Germany warns China and Russia are recruiting assets to sabotage Europe's private sector. The West is under assault.

Some Russian troops used pack animals, lacking motor transport. But pack animals are not unusual for difficult terrain. 

Ukraine has started using small ground drones. I discussed that and recalled the World War I assault on Hamel for lessons.

With discussion of the lack of Americans' privacy by even foreigners due to technology, you might want to check out a 2000 book, The Light of Other Days, by Arthur C. Clarke and Stephen Baxter. I often recall that book in this age. Things could be worse. Even without the book's technology.

China's coastal bridging barges and an invasion of Taiwan. They need a protective ground and air defense bubble from fires. But they add more means to get across the strait in sufficient numbers to win. 

Britain lays the keel for its first new Dreadnought SSBNs. 

The Army still wants an extended-range cannon.

How the F-47 improves on the F-22. Also, I had assumed the designation was a call back to the P-47 Thunderbolt. But Trump is the 47th president. Is that job security for Boeing? 

A short history of the Panama Canal and China's interest in it. As I included in my Taiwan Crisis Part III (I to III collected on Substack in "Objective: Taipei"), China wants the ability to block the canal. 

Sudan's heavy civilian losses in an air strike on a market fail to move the sainted international community because Israel did not launch the attack. There is a history of ignored genocide there.

Sh*t got real. Related.

UAVs. I think the small ones are ascendant because counter-measures lag, lack of air power and artillery shortages, and a largely static front; and will settle down into a useful weapon in the combined arms kit.

The mission from God hits some speed bumps.

Abandoning the F-35 is delusional for Canada and basically cutting off their nose to spite their face. 

2/5 The more I read about the Signal security issue, the more it seems like the screeching reaction here and abroad is inversely proportional to the impact of the breach, which was also limited to the writer. Close the hole, by all means. It is a risk. But the rending of garments is unjustified.

The military JAG program is broken. Read it all for solutions. We should train them in military law schools that teach the purpose of the UCMJ is to maintain an effective military force. 

Western nations want HTS to reign in its jihadis to earn assistance. Good luck with that. HTS is unlikely to adjust their troop commanders to comply with U.S. demands.

Egypt-Ethiopian tensions fuel conflict in the Horn of Africa. Indeed. 

Perhaps access to Congo's (DRC, or old Zaire) critical minerals would be good for America. But there is no way American mineral deal would bring peace to the conflict-afflicted DRC.

Denying Trump is pursuing a "reverse Nixon" to split Russia from China. Resting that denial on the claim Russia and China are "substantially and increasingly aligned" doesn't accurately define their relationship.

Recognizing that victims are now predators.

3/5 In regard to the Signal hole, I'd absolutely be upset if an enemy had some of the information revealed. Which is why I want the revealed hole closed. Unless you are suggesting The Atlantic guy is such a threat, the reaction is grossly overblown.

How many times will gullible Westerners trust jihadis not to be jihadis? FFS. 

Well that is the question of the day for Turkey, no?

It is said that fear is the beginning of Wisdom. Gazans may fear Israel more than Hamas now. 

Are China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia coordinating actions against America more? 

Let a thousand anti-American conspiracy theories bloom! Tip to Instapundit.

Sure, war reserve stocks are just juicy targets if not protected. Because CONUS isn't a sanctuary.

Erdogan wants back into the F-35 program. Hmmm. Unless we give them a 50% plane, no dice.

The SM-6 can intercept hypersonic missiles.

"Blackjack" Pershing was unavailable for comment.

China seeks to make up for deficiencies behind their shiny new navy with land-based anti-ship ballistic missiles. I do wonder about China's large fleet. And the missile kill chain is important. 

Anyone who remembers the incorrect allegations that the Iraq War was "breaking" the U.S. Army (4,500 KIA in 6 years) must surely be amazed the Russian army isn't in a fetal position pissing itself in a cellar.

4/5 This matches my judgment about the Signal hole: "Signalgate is/was a mistake. A destructive mistake? No." He also suggests dumping Signal and asks if it could have been a set-up. I'll add we should broaden concern to all phone apps in the hands of our military. 

Germany will stick with its F-35 purchase.

Training is dangerous. 

The Army wants a large stockpile of cheap shorter-range precision rockets that can fit in MLRS boxes.

I wouldn't call it mission accomplished yet on the B-21 being under budget. 

How is a space "satellite carrier" superior (or cheaper) than having enough launch capacity to rapidly put the satellites into orbit? Won't it just be a juicy target for anti-satellite weapons?

Yes, breathe, people. And yes, the "more Europe" people are usual suspects.

Strengthening America's alliances in INDOPACOM. It's herding the cats out there. 

Huh: "The Syrian government is probably engaging China to secure Chinese support for the transition." Will China take over Russia's bases?

The United States isn't embarking on an imperial expansion. Breathe, people.

A brigade of the 101st Airborne Division has rotated troops into Romania. 

China really doesn't like Typhon. The Marines should buy them so they aren't completely worthless now.

The U.S. is sending advanced air and missile defense capabilities to Asia and Europe.

The U.S. is seeking to help Guyana build its economy (and oil industry) while warning Venezuela to keep its hands off Guyana territory. 

North Korea sent 3,000 more troops to fight for Russia against Ukraine. And a lot more artillery systems.

Can the U.S. establish deterrence in the West Philippine Sea (a portion of the South China Sea)?

Cheap 70mm cruise missile defense in Ukraine.

China helps Russia's 112 "shadow fleet" tankers export oil. 

I missed the news that America could sell F-35s to India. Perhaps India's fighter dysfunction will pay off.

Sweden puts its fighter jets on NATO's front line. 

A 7.7 earthquake in Myanmar that shook Thailand, too. Effects in Myanmar unknown. LATER: 8.2 (via Instapundit). This will be very bad.

Should Trump follow Eisenhower's example of "ending" the Korean War? That required an American Army corps defending Seoul for decades, with troops still in South Korea. Also, the Korean War ended largely along the pre-war line. Are we going to achieve that with all the land Russia has taken since 2014? 

5/5 It was pointed out that the Atlantic editor didn't warn the government Signal group it had a hole in its security. Did Goldberg know he was the only security leak? Or didn't he care if it was a general vulnerability?

The erosion of Egyptian-Israeli relations. Perhaps a joint effort against the Houthi would help in the short run and buy time to end the Gaza irritant.

Good! "Panama has canceled the registrations of dozens of ships that were sanctioned, potentially delivering a blow to Russian oil exports." 

The Global Troubles required killing jihadis in Somalia.

The PLAN stretches its sea legs. 

Noting "grand strategy is simply 'the sustainable balancing of means and ends, based on a prudent calculation of the state’s interests and the threats to those interests'." Sounds right for America. And for Britain, as the author notes, the country is in an awkward position. Then he tosses in premature panic.

The Minuteman III ICBMs may be kept until 2050.

The Infantry Squad Vehicle uses little fuel compared to HMMWVs. Consider that the HMMWV was originally light (I had vinyl doors) until they were up-armored so crew could survive. So ef the ISV role.

Battery power banks sound good for reducing field headquarters sound emissions. But do they burn like an electric car?

How's that urgent mission to expand the Navy going? Oh.

I'd say closeness to China is Taiwan's biggest defense problem, but slow US arms deliveries is up there. Which is why I'd focus on the defense industrial base before expanding force structure too much.

Israel built a large Arabic language model AI after Hamas invaded Israel to rape, murder, and kidnap Jews.

This time for sure! "The Ukraine War was another disaster for the Russian army. In 2025 Russian military leaders are calling for another round of reforms, one that will work." To be fair, they could get good enough.

European "strategic autonomy" is an illusion. Silly authors! The European Union only wants the power to have strategic autonomy! 

The U.S. says it will send robotic anti-ship missiles and unmanned surface vessels to protect the Philippines. Wonder why?

Friends with a common foe.

Force Design Marines can't replace a robust Navy. Indeed, Force Design SIFs under EABO basically require a Navy strong enough to make the anti-ship SIFs irrelevant. 

Every time Putin speaks I want to cancel ceasefire talks and give Ukraine 500 Abrams, 500 Bradleys, 200 HIMARS, 200 F-16s, and 50 nuclear missiles.

More (likely?) American strikes on the Houthi. The B-2s noted at Diego Garcia can carry massive GBU-57 penetrating bombs. If attacks thus far sent leadership into deep bunkers ...

This last week I've gotten a lot of hits from a few hosts apparently from Japan, China, and Los Angeles that focus on older posts. I have no idea what this is. Weird.

Once More Unto the Continental Breach, Dear Friends, Once More

The British are returning to being an off-shore balancer in Europe. Which requires a British Army of the Vistula standing alongside allies to be a true "bleeding ulcer" afflicting continental enemies. Otherwise, the Russians will simply call the police to deal with the lions led by donkeys.

Britain no longer has an army that can decisively influence land warfare in Europe:

In 1914 Lord Kitchener, then secretary of state for war, speaking of the cabinet’s decision to go to war in Europe, thundered, “Did they remember, when they went headlong into a war like this, that they were without an army, and without any preparation to equip one?”

Small numbers would be nothing more than a “speed-bump” against a large attack, as the British Expeditionary Force was in 1914 and again in 1940. Poor preparation, small numbers and limited equipment meant their deployment was more an indication of Britain’s support, rather than real capability to fight a long war against a peer enemy.

Britain is again in this position. Years of spending cuts have removed the ability of British forces to prosecute a war against a peer adversary for an extended time. The number of troops has fallen from 100,000 full-time trained personnel in 2000, to approximately 70,000 today.

The British are pretty much back to their position in 1864 when Germany dismissed their ability to affect Germany's aggression against Denmark:

The Danes resisted, largely because of a mistaken hope of English help, which Bismarck reportedly assessed with the comment, "If Lord Palmerston sends the British army to Germany, I shall have the police arrest them."

The British military is well aware that it inflicts more of an annoying bunion than a bleeding ulcer on the continent, and isn't eager to be sent to the Eastern Front.

The British not so long ago had an army able to have an impact on the continent:

During the Cold War, when we used to spend around 6% of GDP on Defence, the Army had four deployable Divisions, that exercised as a Corps within NATO.

Keep in mind that in 1914 Britain sent six divisions. In 1940 their army on the continent reached 13 divisions. Britain can only dream of such inadequate contributions now.

The problem today is that Britain was shifting their military focus away from the continent. Putin has changed that. It will take time to reverse course and build the British Army of the Vistula.

UPDATE: Wait. What? 

UK to order third aircraft carrier due to Russia threat[.]

Because of Russia, Britain wants a third aircraft carrier? I didn't think the Royal Navy had enough escorts for more than one! So much for a British Army of the Vistula. 

UPDATE: Mere seconds later, I remembered today is April 1st. Well played.

Damn me for posting before I read to the end, where it claimed the ship "will be capable of deploying an estimated infinity-hundred aircraft[.]"

Again. Well played. 

UPDATE: If I'd looked more closely at the photo caption or the byline, I surely would have been deprived of the full joy of the article.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.  

NOTE: Photo from the Wavell Room article.

The EU Had to Kill Democracy in Romania to Save ... Itself

The European Union (EU) hasn't killed rule-of-law democracy in Romania to save democracy there. The EU intervened because it hates democracy.

I'm disappointed a number of Romanians liked a pro-Russian candidate. But the EU killed democracy in Romania to--temporarily, I believe--stop that candidate:

Romania has fallen to the status of a 'hybrid regime,' the only one in the European Union, and we have EU politicians and corrupt bureaucrats to thank for it.

Because of course it did. The EU ruling class believes only it can overrule the warmongering instincts of the peasants to save Europe from its long history of wars against each other.

Seriously. They believe that the EU rather than the America-led NATO gave Europe its run of peace since World War II ended. The former Yugoslavia and the Russian wars against Ukraine, notwithstanding.

Can Romania's democracy recover? Or is it going to be bullets rather than ballots that determine who sits at the big desk? Heck, Romanians might welcome EU-provided order via 10,000 cheese regulations to escape the rule of local bullets.

Building rule-of-law democracy is hard enough without an outside force hammering away at it. One can expect Russia to do that. The West should not participate.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Making Ground Drones Pivotal Will Take Effort

For unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to be more than novelty items, they must complement conventional weapons and be tightly integrated into combined arms operations.

Ukraine is using UGVs in important roles:

While drones have been around since WWI, most people only think about air units being used in modern conflicts. But the Ukraine War has given us a glimpse at how military tactics are evolving as drones have become a more pivotal part of the strategy, including not only air but also water and land drones.

We're in the crawl stage of crawl-walk-run for incorporating UGVs into combined arms operation. While small land drones for urban warfare are fine, I suspect ground combat drones need to be at least SUV size to have some decent cross-country mobility. The small land drones will get stymied by small ditches and obstacles. Early World War I tanks had to be large to cross trenches and to crush barbed wire. Drone design and tactics to make them part of a force will determine their effectiveness.

My longer Substack post on the lessons of the assault on Hamel in the First World War may be of interest in making ground (and air) drones part of a real combined arms force that can restore mobility to a firepower-dominated front.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Enduring Appeal of the Healing Powers of Lines On a Map

Carving up the world into spheres of interest won't end conflict.

The idea that Russia and America should carve up spheres of interest is silly and won't work. 

The US is still hugely powerful, and Russia remains an acute threat to its neighbors and wider Europe. However, the idea that the world is moving from an international liberal order to a 19th-century-style order of great power spheres of influence is misguided: Washington is alienating the sphere it had, and Moscow increasingly looks like part of Beijing’s.

The only real beneficiary of current US and Russian policies is likely to be China.

Sure, Russia is effing up. It should make its peace with America and NATO to face the true threat to Russian sovereignty and territorial integrity--China. I keep hoping Russia will pull its head out of its Putin to do that. 

So far we just keep getting the same old bloody stupidity from Moscow.

Yet I reject the idea that America is alienating Europe by pointing out their faltering freedoms. America is trying to shape Europe into countries worthy of being allies with whom we can fight those who would take that freedom away.

But ending conflict with spheres of influence is certainly counter-productive. Whether broadly or with just Russia.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Limits of Air Power

Imposing the ability to fly over or sail near the Houthi would be a victory. But it is easily reversible if nobody controls the Houthi on the ground.

While I want a strong U.S. Air Force, I've long been skeptical of the victory-through-air power school. So what can the"unrelenting" American air campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthi threat to freedom of navigation do? 

On the morning of March 16, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told Fox News the latest U.S. airstrikes on Yemen's Houthi terrorists is a campaign "about freedom of navigation and restoring deterrence. The minute the Houthis say, 'We'll stop shooting at your ships, we'll stop shooting at your (U.S. recon) drones,' this campaign will end. But until then, it will be unrelenting."

I've long warned about this Red Sea threat. Bouncing the rubble is good. But there are limits to an air-only Red Sea campaign. In the original Tanker War, Iraqi battlefield victories over Iran saved us from endless naval battles (see Stage Six):

Despite Iraq's repeated small losses in Kurdistan, her victories on the rest of the front were coming at such a rapid pace that Iran was near collapse. In the atmosphere of this pending disaster (increasingly apparent even to Iran's leaders), a tragedy in the Gulf weighed in with possibly decisive consequences on the mind of the Ayatollah Khomeini. On July 3, 1988, in the midst of a confusing clash with Iranian forces in the congested Strait of Hormuz, the American cruiser Vincennes mistakenly shot down an Iranian Airbus 300 that entered the combat area. All 290 aboard were killed. Khomeini tried to use this incident to whip up renewed anger against Iraq, but the Iranian ground forces were too far gone to rise to the challenge. The combination of Iraqi battlefield dominance and Tehran's perception that America was willing to stop at nothing to crush Iran led the Ayatollah Khomeini to accept U. N. Resolution No. 598, which called for an end to the war. On July 16, 1988, Iran formally accepted the resolution.  

Caving in to the superpower America was a convenient excuse for Iran to end the war with Iraq. It obscured Iraq's sudden string of battlefield victories where Iran once frightened the world. And that ended the Tanker War.

So while I welcome an unrelenting air campaign that can suppress the Houthi anti-ship campaign. The Houthi and Iran will remain intact to rebuild the threat unless Houthi boots no longer control the ground.

UPDATE: An admiral's support for boots on the ground. Although I'll say it's early to say the aerial campaign has failed to temporarily suppress the anti-ship capabilities. And no word on whose boots hit the ground.

UPDATE: I suppose this defense of America's role in ensuring freedom of navigation is in order.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.  

NOTE: I mined the image from my old DALL-E account rather than risk Bing's hyper-sensitive "standards" that make being a national security blogger more difficult than is necessary.

The Winter War of 2022 Refuses to End

The war is in a purgatory between war and peace. Troops on the front will have to work out mixed feelings about fighting. Russians may or may not believe they fight NATO, Nazis, and Satan in Ukraine but they have been willing to fight. Ukrainians fight to survive as a country. But with peace held out to the troops, hope of surviving the war becomes a more prominent thought. What happens when enough troops decide they don't want to be the last soldier to die in the war?

Both sides are suffering from the effects of more than three years of war. Diplomacy gets much more media attention than the battlefield, excepting Ukraine's retreat from much of the Kursk salient and the big Ukrainian drone strike on Engels-2 airbase deep in Russia. 

Yet Ukraine want its territory back. And Russia wants all of Ukraine. Ukraine doesn't want to "end" the war to validate conquests. Russia doesn't want to end the war at all--just reload. Russia is throwing sand in the gears of a ceasefire while falsely arguing Ukraine is the problem. And I don't know what the heck our special envoy to the Middle East is talking about regarding Russia in Ukraine. Is the Middle East too easy for the man? I understand pretending Russia is normal to talk to them. I grit my teeth. But I understand. But what that envoy said is out of bounds.

I suspect that many Ukrainians will be relieved to end the war with whatever territory negotiations can get back rather than relying on more dead Ukrainians as the price. And I fear that the costs that Russia has paid in lives and economic damage is stopping Putin from easily ending his invasion without a result commensurate with the price Russia has already paid. But can Russia possibly increase the ratio of gains-to-price with more war, when its monthly total casualties are 20,000 to 35,000 now with minimal gains? That seems like a poor betting strategy.

While either side's troop morale could collapse, I think Russians are more likely to break. But neither side can be sure they won't be the first. And while both fight, creating an end to large-scale fighting is difficult:

And while the war will end in the form the militaries created, the settlement will be a matter of statecraft, as all political negotiations are. Bluff and bluster are the tools of negotiations, though human factors – pride and shame – will play a part too.

Aside from not angering American diplomatic efforts with clear intransigence, both sides must approach talks to "end" the war carefully to make sure their troops don't lose the will to fight first.

UPDATE (Friday): Exactly:

Col. Dmytro Palisa, commander of Ukraine’s 33rd Mechanized Brigade, instructs his soldiers to ignore speculation about a possible cease-fire.

“They start relaxing, they start overthinking, putting on rose-colored glasses, thinking that tomorrow will be easier. No,” he said in an interview at a command post on the eastern front. “We shoot until we are given the order to stop.”

If the war's end seems imminent, soldiers naturally act differently to avoid being the last to die. Russians no doubt face the same--if not worse--hope for survival.

UPDATE (Sunday): Putin has not reciprocated America's generosity in its diplomatic overtures:

President Donald Trump said he was “very angry” and “pissed off” when Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized the credibility of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s leadership, adding that the comments were “not going in the right location.”

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: The Collapse of the Soviet Empire.

In case you missed it on Substack: America is Not Abandoning Europe.

In case you missed it on Substack: War is Combined Arms Hell.

In case you missed it on Substack: Can Taiwan Learn from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine?

Russian grain exports aren't sanctioned. But they are plummeting from weather and from the diversion of money and manpower to the war.

The North Korean expeditionary force.

This was a good movie and his point on procurement gold plating true. But to be fair, the Bradley turned out to be an excellent combat vehicle. The Ukrainians love them. And saying the Bradley wasn't good for counter-insurgency (flat bottom vulnerable to mines) ignores it wasn't designed for that.

Coastal defense gets a DDG.

Russia can pound sand. Macron is right. Annoying. But right. 

GLSDB: This time, for sure! The update cycle is too long.

Medvedev threatens war against NATO if it deploys peacekeepers to Ukraine. TDR has exclusive video:

 

Be careful what you wish for, China. VOA 2.0 might not be as funny. 

War on terror continues in Iraq: "ISIS’s chief of global operations, the second in command for the terrorist group, was killed on Thursday in an American airstrike, U.S. Central Command said."

Recalling the Falklands War. In a college poli sci class during the war, a fellow student proclaimed the British had no chance on land because they didn't have 3:1 advantage. I said if the British landed, they'd smash the Argentinians because the 3:1 "rule" works with combat power--not numbers.

Another power outage in Cuba. Tip to Instapundit. 

Is Xi's authority over the PLA eroding? Uh oh.

The accusation has always been lazy analysis.

Germany sends a frigate to support UNIFIL. How much time before it reverts to UNIFAIL? 

Some nominally French guy in the EU "parliament" wants the Statue of Liberty back? I say compromise is in order. Send the crappy poem affixed to it that seeks to make Lady Liberty the Statue of Unrestricted Immigration. Good luck with that. Tip to Instapundit.

The Army's XM-7 rifle intended for combat troops can penetrate body armor. What we have our enemies will get, too. 

2,500 Marines and sailors from 1 MEF rotated into northern Australia. 

Marines will have pre-positioned equipment suitable for humanitarian missions in Subic Bay, Philippines.

The Army is preparing to deploy another Typhon long-range missile battery for the Pacific.

The foreign volunteers who go to help Ukraine stop Russia.  

Russia creates a drone regiment. 

Russia expanded its war on the West by targeting IKEA.

Syria's HTS-led government hit Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

Germany decides to do what is needs to do, notwithstanding rule of law. Huh. Critics often say tyranny of descending on America. But it always seems to land elsewhere.

Rebuilding a pluralistic Syria to keep ISIL down is folly as a Western objective. If Syrians manage that--and there is no evidence the Islamist victors seek that--good on them. Offering Christians refuge should be the limits of our effort.

A "relatively" inexpensive anti-drone missile. Only auto-cannons can really be cheap enough, IMO. Unless one missile launcher is cheaper than numerous auto-cannons protecting the same area.

The Marines stubbornly want to be a second Navy and the Navy stubbornly refuses to shuttle Marines the way the Marines want. 

How to build a "European" defense force. To be fair, a proto-empire needs an army to strip away the prefix. "Growing doubts" about America's commitment is one more faux excuse to replace NATO.

I seriously doubt North Korea has a SSBN. I have doubts that it has usable nuclear weapons rather than nuclear devices requiring thousands of scientists and technicians to detonate.

When Russia is on the hunt, signaling you aren't to be effed with is more important than signaling your virtue. Tip to Instapundit. 

The U.S. is pressuring Iraq to disarm and dismantle the pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Force militias set up during the 2014 ISIL surge.

Russia's labor shortage.

I don't have to believe Hamas propaganda to have my heart broken by the plight of Gazan children. Lay the blame on Hamas for launching a rape and murder invasion. And blame Hamas for using the children as human shields rather than surrendering and ending the horrors of war inflicted on the children.

At the intersection of psychological warfare and preparation for invasion. 

Star Orbital Wars.

Too little and too late to save the wreckage of the LCS class?

The Army "Force Design" unit. I say sell the needed equipment to the Marines and get back to basics.

I listened to a podcast with an author discussing how difficult it is to really pinpoint the end of a war, with the American Civil War cited. This fits my view of Phase IX of the Iraq War that is raging now. And I've noted the Civil War as an example for judging victory in Iraq.

This is well beyond perfectly lawful boycott. It is getting closer to terrorism. Which is a step to insurrection. Let's keep this a law enforcement problem by squashing it now. Tip to Instapundit.

America builds surface and submarine unmanned vessels. There are apparently means nobody talks about to prevent enemies from boarding and capturing them. That addresses a concern of mine. 

"Russia is conducting a disruptive clandestine operation against NATO countries in an effort to create disunity and eliminate any willingness to continue supporting Ukraine." Indeed.

Indistinguishable from actual bastards: "Russian efforts to destabilize Africa are supposed to divert attention and resources headed to Ukraine." 

I keep seeing disapproving stories that the military is purging photos and stories of women and minorities in its efforts to get rid of DEI material. But I expected initial broad wipes to result in eventual restoration of stories of bravery by military personnel as Americans--not as sub-category representatives.

Refusing to help Ukraine win contributes to "inevitable" stalemate, Russia is not destined to win a war of attrition, and America has an interest in preventing Russia from absorbing Ukraine. Endorsed. I'm not siding with Democrats. I'm welcoming them to the party.

The Ohio SSGN returning to duty absolutely does not have more firepower than all the bombs dropped in World War II. That measure applies to the boat when it was a nuclear armed SSBN before conversion to a conventionally armed SSGN.

As a small, new, and inherently technological service, Space Force is inherently better able to discard legacy systems to embrace market-ready solutions.

Is France at risk of civil war? Has France fixed the factors promoting civil war?

Is breaking up the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment for part to rebuild it a cause for alarm? I'm ... concerned. Or is the existing ONA coasting on reputation and deserving of a rebuild?

So far, stories about Israel's major strike on Hamas has focused on Hamas claims of massive civilian casualties. What about the actual targets destroyed, which seem to be very important?

"Step 1. Co-- .... uh ... operate fully with the invaders."/NOTHING FOLLOWS/ Hey, I'm only human. 

Israel followed up its air strikes with ground operations to expand a buffer zone in Gaza. 

A cheaper APKWS-based rocket for fighter aircraft anti-drone defense. How about using them on an A-Whacks? 

Coastal defense gets a second destroyer. Sheesh. In the Cold War our high-end Coast Guard cutters were very similar to our warships. No more.

It's weird. Force Design Marines are becoming a land-based Navy to sink ships. Yet are reducing their buy of  V/TOL F-35Bs in favor of more carrier-based F-35Cs.

It's interesting that China practiced fighting American destroyers using an unrealistic scenario. 

China is best buddies with Russia, so Russia has nothing to worry about there.

Macron wants to be France's protector-in-chief? No, he is auditioning for his next job. 

Planning to meet threats by developing the Navy tomorrow and up to fifteen years from now.

However much Ukraine values the often soon-to-be obsolete weaponry we send, we over-value them in discussing costs. 

The Army wants the Viper vertically launched 180-mile cruise missile. The Army doesn't trust the Air Force will prioritize Army fires requests.

Interesting article, but America's debt problem is hardly imperial over-stretch. Defense spending as burden on the economy is much lower now than in Cold War. It is domestic spending over-stretch on one side of the ledger. And regulatory over-reach on the other.

God help the Gazans that Hamas hides behind.

My Infantry article "Reachback for the Squad" has emerged intact from the change from Fort Moore back to Benning. 

Russia will train Ethiopia's navy. What navy?  In what port?

Ukraine hit Russia's Engels Airbase quite hard. Big explosions. Damage unclear. 

Sh*t got real. Just leave some lanes through the minefields facing Kaliningrad, okay?

The forever aerial tanker.

One problem with saying Ukraine could replicate how Finland saved itself from the USSR after the Winter War of 1939-1940 by trading land for peace is that the USSR almost immediately got preoccupied with a bloody Nazi invasion and then the Cold War before it could reload and invade again.

This is Resolve Theater. Europe barely works up the energy to resist Russia in Europe. Europe won't come to Canada's rescue. America will do that. 

Italy, for one, will not welcome its new insect overlords.

Red Storm writhing on the Kola Peninsula. Putin rejects the gift from God. 

NATO makes post-war plans to sustain Ukraine's ability to defend itself. I always worry that a focus on post-war plans is either for the objective of inaction or dangerously assumes victory.

I know Russia wages war on NATO. But Putin wouldn't go this far in his repeated specific threats to attack Britain, would he?

The Bradley IFV can fire a new missile of unknown capabilities.

"China’s overreliance on AI, political distortions of military assessments, and systemic resistance to delivering bad news to Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping could lead to strategic missteps in a future conflict, particularly in Taiwan." 

I'm glad Taiwan has sense of urgency. But assume China will invade tomorrow.

Should Poland and South Korea have tactical nukes? Not so fast. Well, precision weapons can do most of what old tactical nukes did. So I can't see Poland benefiting. Tactical nukes that could reach Pyongyang would help South Korea. But that's a strategic effect.

The UN "happiness index" is a sham. All such "studies" are designed to let Europeans believe their sad standards of living are okay because Americans aren't really happy with all that wealth. I wouldn't be shocked if the Definitions Section defined bug cuisine as a source of happiness.

CDR Salamander favors reforming the regional unified commands. He throws shade on Joint Doctrine. He's not against jointness itself, but how it is put in practice. I hear that. Services must work together. But as I wrote in this LWP, true joint synergy is built on the foundation of each service winning their domain.

Is Bangladesh the next Afghanistan? India had best double the guard. I've had recent alarming Weekend Data Dump entries on that "model" Moslem country that once had little Islamist extremism. #WhyIslamCan'tHaveNiceThings

The Cossack mystique. 

China's propaganda campaign to alienate Okinawans from Japan and America's troop presence.

Should the Coast Guard have special forces? I'd rather upgrade its cutters to Cold War standards of armament. 

"While sensor-rich environments make operational concealment harder, they also create opportunities to exploit adversaries’ cognitive biases." Exactly!

Be careful of a military tech revolution if it focuses only on the low end of a high-low mix of weapons. This sounds like a bargain basement version of the old Revolution in Military Affairs movement. Infinite numbers of cheap weapons won't have all the capabilities of a single expensive weapon. Buy both.

Using AI to defeat enemy drone swarms. I say add AI to fighter drones, which I advocated in Army. 

The F-47 sixth generation fighter to replace the F-22 has already been secretly flying for five years.

Iran, called in for questioning, denies even knowing the Houthi and the other proxies it arms and influences. 

The newly dominant Sunni Arab majority in Syria is seeking revenge on their former oppressors, the Alawites, who were the base of Assad's support. Either the Alawites successfully secede from Syria in their coastal region or the majority commits genocide on this path.

Taiwan's opposition is criticizing government efforts to stop PRC "coercion and malign influence targeting the Taiwanese government, military, and people." You wonder why I doubt Taiwanese are an island Israel--or Ukraine?

Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after intercepting several rockets launched at Israel from Lebanon. 

Germany is paving the way to borrow more to spend on defense. Given personnel shortages, we'll soon see stories about new weapons being carried around by broom sticks.

SpaceX set a 9-day turnaround record for re-using a Falcon 9 rockets. Which isn't nearly as good as the time I assumed to reject Starship Trooper fantasies. Tip to Instapundit.

I fear the countryside is too Islamist friendly for the city protesters to be a threat to Erdogan. Will this get media coverage?

Israel hammers Hamas. Have Israel and America issued an ultimatum to Iran on nukes? Tip to Instapundit. Hmmm. If Iran does not back down, would punishing Iran serve double duty as a warning to Russia?

May 9, 1945 expired in Russia.

The collapsing Russian rail network. Sabotage, accidents, and (from prior posts) sanctions--like ball bearings--are finally eating into the ability to cope. 

The Houthi are the new Barbary Pirates. I had thoughts about that on Substack.

Bing seems to be blocking my perfectly reasonable requests for post illustrations more often lately. I guess a defense orientation is inherently dangerous according to their parameters. Has Bing tightened its limits?