Can Russia survive peace? Of course, to ask that question is to assume that Russia can survive more war.
The war goes on. Same death and destruction. New week. Although I will say that it feels like Ukraine is counter-attacking on a small scale more frequently the last few weeks. And it seems like Russian advances are slowing down. I don't know if this is is a new trend that will expand or just a blip.
Putin is afraid of demobilizing his soldiers if peace breaks out:
The Kremlin is intensifying a campaign launched in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society and an influx of alienated veterans in Russia likely because it perceives the demobilization of Russian veterans as a potential threat to regime stability.
I've noted the problem of proliferating armed forces in Russia. And I've noted the risk of a new Time of Troubles in Russia. Can Russia really go on as it is?
Of course, if Putin uses a peace deal that ends the farcical portrayal of NATO as a threat to Russian territorial integrity in order to shift focus and troops to Central Asia and the Far East, he could avoid that problem. Far from Moscow, those troops could deter China from bullying Russia for concessions. Or ejecting Russian influence from Central Asia or physically taking Far East territory that Russia took from China in the 19th century.
But Russia can never be in NATO, even if Russia becomes a democracy. If NATO members have trouble thinking it should worry about the Dnipro River, those members aren't going to defend the Amur River.
UPDATE (Monday): Russia seems to fear a U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal as a de facto American trip wire in the east.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
