The Syria multi-war is revving up again. But to really get going, the former regime elements now in armed resistance will need outside support. Iran is the most likely candidate. Will America go along?
Is fighting in coastal Syria a sign of renewed civil war?
Syria is teetering on the brink of all-out civil war, once again, as fighting rages between the new regime in Damascus and fighters loyal to the deposed President Bashar al-Assad. The last few days have seen heavy fighting in the coastal region, with reports of dozens of the Alawite minority having been executed by Syrian security forces.
I've expected resistance to develop:
As I noted early after the HTS battlefield victory, Syrians aren't enjoying freedom. They are enjoying a power vacuum. That vacuum is for now being visibly filled—at least on paper if not in the local towns or countryside—by the former HTS rebels. New rebels—or perhaps more accurately, separatists—could fill that practical vacuum.
Indeed, I highlighted the threat of the current rulers of Syria when ISIL was defeated. But yeah, Alawite separatism is more likely than retaking Syria from the Sunni Arab majority, which Assad couldn't crush from the start of the multi-war. But outside support is necessary for this minority "nascent insurgency" to the bloody majority to be meaningful rather than just more death and destruction. Unless the majority is more tired of dying in the long multi-war.
And there are reports of civilians civilians--including Christians--being murdered by the HTS fanatics. We should help Christians escape to the West. Islam has been purging their countries of Christians in lands they conquered for a long time--with only the Crusades interrupting that campaign.
America's decision about what to do in eastern Syria and Iraq will be important, as the war evolves--again. And the apparent Kurdish deal with HTS may make remaining in the east impossible. Will we prevent Iran from sending in support overland to the Assad resistance? Or will we pull out and step aside? Staying or leaving eastern Syria just got more complicated. Although going through Hezbollah-controlled Lebanese territory might be easier.
Will Russia support Alawite separatism to get its bases back? Or Russia ride this fighting to get its Syria bases back from HTS? Will Russians then start bombing Alawite towns? This will cause tension with its ally and arms supplier, Iran.
As time goes on, however, the pro-Assad resistance will move on to be its own resistance based on local power centers.
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NOTE: Getty image from the cited article.
