Imposing the ability to fly over or sail near the Houthi would be a victory. But it is easily reversible if nobody controls the Houthi on the ground.
While I want a strong U.S. Air Force, I've long been skeptical of the victory-through-air power school. So what can the"unrelenting" American air campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthi threat to freedom of navigation do?
On the morning of March 16, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told Fox News the latest U.S. airstrikes on Yemen's Houthi terrorists is a campaign "about freedom of navigation and restoring deterrence. The minute the Houthis say, 'We'll stop shooting at your ships, we'll stop shooting at your (U.S. recon) drones,' this campaign will end. But until then, it will be unrelenting."
I've long warned about this Red Sea threat. Bouncing the rubble is good. But there are limits to an air-only Red Sea campaign. In the original Tanker War, Iraqi battlefield victories over Iran saved us from endless naval battles (see Stage Six):
Despite Iraq's repeated small losses in Kurdistan, her victories on the rest of the front were coming at such a rapid pace that Iran was near collapse. In the atmosphere of this pending disaster (increasingly apparent even to Iran's leaders), a tragedy in the Gulf weighed in with possibly decisive consequences on the mind of the Ayatollah Khomeini. On July 3, 1988, in the midst of a confusing clash with Iranian forces in the congested Strait of Hormuz, the American cruiser Vincennes mistakenly shot down an Iranian Airbus 300 that entered the combat area. All 290 aboard were killed. Khomeini tried to use this incident to whip up renewed anger against Iraq, but the Iranian ground forces were too far gone to rise to the challenge. The combination of Iraqi battlefield dominance and Tehran's perception that America was willing to stop at nothing to crush Iran led the Ayatollah Khomeini to accept U. N. Resolution No. 598, which called for an end to the war. On July 16, 1988, Iran formally accepted the resolution.
Caving in to the superpower America was a convenient excuse for Iran to end the war with Iraq. It obscured Iraq's sudden string of battlefield victories where Iran once frightened the world. And that ended the Tanker War.
So while I welcome an unrelenting air campaign that can suppress the Houthi anti-ship campaign. The Houthi and Iran will remain intact to rebuild the threat unless Houthi boots no longer control the ground.
UPDATE: An admiral's support for boots on the ground. Although I'll say it's early to say the aerial campaign has failed to temporarily suppress the anti-ship capabilities. And no word on whose boots hit the ground.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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