Making future invasions of Ukraine more expensive for Russia is not the same as deterring Russia.
My impression is that Ukraine is increasingly challenging Russia's theater-wide initiative with local counter-attacks and its new attack into Russia's Belgorod province. Does this telegraph a new big effort two years after the failed 2023 summer counteroffensive? Or is it just local counter-attacks?
Ukraine's friends begin to look beyond this war, but--and forgive the technical term--this proposal is "stupid":
As U.S.-led talks with Russia and Ukraine progress, without the Europeans at the table, the 27-nation bloc is pressing ahead with a steel “porcupine strategy” aimed at building the Ukrainian armed forces, and the country’s defense industry, into an even more formidable opponent.
If Russia isn't deterred by the hundreds of thousands of killed and crippled from its invasion over the last three years, a European plan like this will add nothing. And if the prospect of even more casualties and economic pain doesn't deter Russia, this kind of European plan will invite Russia to come back again and again for more territory.
Because a porcupine strategy is all about killing enemies to impose a cost they won't want to pay. What on God's green Earth do you think the Ukrainians have been doing the last three+ years? This kind of strategy begins the journey from victory to defeat with a short stop at deterrence.
Without giving Ukraine the capabilities to drive the Russians out of Ukraine, Russia will know it is safe to attack again after reloading for a few years. It will gain more ground that Ukraine doesn't have the weapons to drive back.
Lather. Rinse. Repeat. And as long as Russia is willing to pay the price for overcoming those figurative quills, eventually Russia has all of Ukraine.
Stop the "porcupine" murder-suicide pact strategy!
UPDATE (Monday): Russia conscripts new recruits in spring and autumn cycles. The pattern is 100,000, or more. This spring, Putin ordered a much larger intake (since 2012) of 18-30 year old males:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has called up 160,000 young men for military service against the backdrop of his war against Ukraine.
Losses have been heavier the last half year, or more, and outstripped recruiting. Will this fill the ranks? Or will it bring in young men more prone to insubordination?
UPDATE (Wednesday): The record wasn't set by much. Perhaps this simply represents expanded training capacity. When does this hit demographic capacity limits?
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
