The war is in a purgatory between war and peace. Troops on the front will have to work out mixed feelings about fighting. Russians may or may not believe they fight NATO, Nazis, and Satan in Ukraine but they have been willing to fight. Ukrainians fight to survive as a country. But with peace held out to the troops, hope of surviving the war becomes a more prominent thought. What happens when enough troops decide they don't want to be the last soldier to die in the war?
Both sides are suffering from the effects of more than three years of war. Diplomacy gets much more media attention than the battlefield, excepting Ukraine's retreat from much of the Kursk salient and the big Ukrainian drone strike on Engels-2 airbase deep in Russia.
Yet Ukraine want its territory back. And Russia wants all of Ukraine. Ukraine doesn't want to "end" the war to validate conquests. Russia doesn't want to end the war at all--just reload. Russia is throwing sand in the gears of a ceasefire while falsely arguing Ukraine is the problem. And I don't know what the heck our special envoy to the Middle East is talking about regarding Russia in Ukraine. Is the Middle East too easy for the man? I understand pretending Russia is normal to talk to them. I grit my teeth. But I understand. But what that envoy said is out of bounds.
I suspect that many Ukrainians will be relieved to end the war with whatever territory negotiations can get back rather than relying on more dead Ukrainians as the price. And I fear that the costs that Russia has paid in lives and economic damage is stopping Putin from easily ending his invasion without a result commensurate with the price Russia has already paid. But can Russia possibly increase the ratio of gains-to-price with more war, when its monthly total casualties are 20,000 to 35,000 now with minimal gains? That seems like a poor betting strategy.
While either side's troop morale could collapse, I think Russians are more likely to break. But neither side can be sure they won't be the first. And while both fight, creating an end to large-scale fighting is difficult:
And while the war will end in the form the militaries created, the settlement will be a matter of statecraft, as all political negotiations are. Bluff and bluster are the tools of negotiations, though human factors – pride and shame – will play a part too.Aside from not angering American diplomatic efforts with clear intransigence, both sides must approach talks to "end" the war carefully to make sure their troops don't lose the will to fight first.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
