I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
The Russians don't pursue good or evil--just empire: "Russia is trying to negotiate a deal with the new Syrian government for continued use of these bases. Russia offers cash and other benefits. The new Syrian government needs all the help it can get."
In case you missed it on Substack: Reimagining a Palestinian State.
In case you missed it on Substack: Robots Crawl to a Small Victory.
In case you missed it on Substack: Supply and Demand in Warfare.
In case you missed it on Substack: China Probably Isn't an Imminent Threat.
Ukraine trains while Russia sends barely trained recruits to die.
Iran wants to open up the West Bank as a war front against Israel. So everyone finds out.
France exercises using its sole aircraft carrier with the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Drone-equipped Marines have joined the NATO Baltic Sentry mission to protect undersea infrastructure.
China's military was ordered to be ready for "engaging in combat" in the spring. These orders seem to pop up again and again. Is this routine for internal purposes or is it lulling us to let our guard down? Beats me.
A Marine major general participated in Taiwanese military exercises. Huh.
Could building prototype unmanned warships and testing them in the real world speed warship design and production? Heck, is there a quicker path?
The F-22 is getting its engines upgraded.
I suspect the French government sent a bloodless message to Russia to back off its "hybrid" warfare of intimidation inside France.
The British fling their ultimate insult at Germany.
As the British confront the need to bolster their military, the actual invasion continues unabated.
Is suspended American humanitarian aid really the difference between life and death in the Horn of Africa region? Although it seems like slashing corrupt USAID could free up actual aid even as spending on expenditures is reduced. Should the EU jump on that problem? Uh oh.
"Maximum pressure" is back: "The U.S. Department of State is today designating 16 entities and
vessels for their involvement in Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical
industry."
Hey Russia and Belarus, we have nukes that can hit you, too. It's some nice visible support for the NATO Baltic States.
Reviewing the fall of Assad and the lull in the multi-war. I think it will resume.
Maritime shipping insurance and the Suez Canal fee challenge. I'll add that if the Iran-sponsored Houthi can strike Israel with missiles, they can strike the Suez Canal.
Don't let China's historic claim of ruling everything under Heaven get too literal: "China’s space strategy is shaped by military ambitions, aspirations for technological dominance, and ubiquitous commercial considerations."
DOGE goes after the DOD. My brief observation on Substack.
Ukraine and Russia are producing huge numbers of often disposable drones.
North Korea apparently pulled off the biggest crypto-currency theft in history--$1.4 billion. It's tough to sanction a country when rulers only care about their own luxurious lifestyle--and nukes. I've long felt claims of crypto-currency absolute security is nonsense. What is created by Man can be cracked by Man.
America has reclaimed the mantle of the shining light on a hill by embracing freedoms of speech and religion. Europeans need that light. Tips to Instapundit. Indeed, as I wrote on Substack.
Trump has absolutely not ordered a U-turn in policy to abandon Ukraine. I say this as someone who has long backed Ukraine against Russian domination. Support for Ukraine continues. What we see is often uncomfortable diplomatic posturing. If you feel whiplash, it is self-inflicted. Breathe, people. Breathe.
Perhaps I was hasty in assuming French agents safely bombed a Russian consulate in France as a warning to Putin. But just "perhaps".
Spite, harassment, or ratcheting up the "peacetime" baseline? "Taiwan's coast guard said it detained a China-linked cargo ship on Tuesday after a nearby undersea cable to the Penghu Islands in the sensitive Taiwan Strait was disconnected."
The Philippines and Japan stand closer under Chinese pressure.
China's "massive" WZ-9 drone is operating on China's Hainan Island.
Hey sainted international community, good luck with that!
LCS redemption? Hmmm. We'll see.
Vance was right to condemn Europe's slide to autocracy. Indeed. It's not us--it's you. The European Union will cement that slide. And their justification for such power is absurd.
China's expanding naval reach threatens Australia as a maritime power. Indeed. And Australia's defense path makes sense to defeat that threat. Including SSNs/SSGNs.
With what? Suicidal devotion to Kim Jung Un and one meal per day?
If Canada' choice is between a focus on the Arctic or closer defense ties to the EU (not NATO?!), the choice is clear. As if the EU rather than America will rush to Canada's defense! And it's clear even if the alternative is more power to Europe through NATO.
No substitute for victory in Ukraine. Do read it. The author wants Ukrainian reserves to exploit a fleeting opportunity for victory. I wanted that in 2022. Now is better than never. I don't care if victory is diplomatic or on the battlefield. Victory should be the first objective. Sadly, many find a plethora of substitutes.
Poland scrambled aircraft in case a Russian missile strike on western Ukraine threatened Polish territory.The UK, France, and Germany gave Iran until June 30th to conclude a nuclear deal or face "snapback" UN sanctions. I have strong doubts these are as legal as portrayed by the original awful deal. Will Russia and China really let this sail through without objection?
We need nuclear gravity bombs. If you want a limited perhaps single strike to show seriousness whether it is a first or second use, using a missile risks a major miss. Circular Error Probable means there is a 50% chance the warhead lands outside the circle. Potentially way outside. Gravity and wind limit bomb misses.
That would certainly have humor value. I bet member state delegations would shrink significantly.
Embarrassing, I'm sure. But not exactly Epstein's client list level of impact.
Seriously digging out waste in the Pentagon is needed to boost our defenses and actually cut our budget deficit. Give it a chance. Panic-mongering annoys me. A lot. Also, why our defense spending is so high. Perhaps not my most comprehensive post, but it's the one I found quickly.
If America withdraws troops from Syria, the ISIL terror threat will revive. I'm sympathetic to the call to get out. But if we don't have someone else to keep ISIL suppressed, understand that more terrorism will be a price of withdrawing. I don't trust Syria's new jihadi rulers to fight other jihadis for us.
South Korea reports that more North Korean troops have arrived in Russia.
The Army will field its first hypersonic missile by the end of September. At some level the Multidomain Task Force seems like the Army conceding it has no missions in its core competency.
The Australian navy welcomes its future at Perth.
With difficulties, Russia is slowly replacing its sea-based nuclear deterrent force. Honestly, I want the paranoid Russians to have a secure nuclear deterrent.
Face reality: North Korea is a nuclear power. I see we've reached the last of the four-stage isolationist foreign policy strategy:
Investigating the sources of the Gettysburg friendly fire incident. Was the crew trained enough to even enter the shooting gallery?
Palestinians are their own worst enemy: "The Palestinians have been able to miss one opportunity after another
because doing so has brought no lasting diplomatic consequences." The queen expects deference.
What American allies provide enough defense capabilities. GDP burden is crude. I know it over-states Greece's spending. Willingness to fight at our side and endure casualties are good measures for seriousness. That counts a lot. Interesting final number based on five categories. But I think it is ... off.
Ramping up Canadian military capabilities to work with America. Go north, Ottawa.
There seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today. And our flag officers, too.
Michigan's governor wants Selfridge Air National Guard Base to get another squadron to replace the soon-to-be-scrapped A-10 unit. When I worked for the state legislature I wrote a number of resolutions defending the role of the base to prevent possible closure.
All of the B-1 bombers at a base slated to be updated for the B-21 flew off to other bases. The 'ol Bone still has meat on it.
Trump: "the European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That’s the purpose of it, and they’ve done a good job of it." True. But he's talking about tariffs. It is much, much bigger than that.
Putin is sad he is no Stalin: "Russia has not resorted to extreme measures to motivate their soldiers."
Because doing that would be stupid: "Israeli media reported on Thursday that the Israeli army will not withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egypt-Gaza border, as agreed in the ceasefire deal."
A senior Air Force general said the "Air Force wants to emphasize more long-range strikes but cannot rely on them too heavily." He wants mass, too. Sure. Keep going.
GAO: "Problems in Navy shipbuilding and repair have remained relatively unchanged over the past decades."
Huh: "Iran is conducting a campaign to extract sensitive U.S. data and use it to harm Americans and our allies, and policymakers are not doing enough to stop it." One theory says we don't try hard enough to be Iran's friend.
I reject the premise of this article that America is abandoning Europe. I say "Europe" complains about whatever America's policy is at the moment. But sure, Germany has a choice to make.
I think we'll see Hamas victory dances scaled back: "Israeli decision-makers plan to resume the Gaza war in four to six weeks with overwhelming force, sending in tens of thousands of troops to conquer the entire strip in a single coordinated offensive against Hamas."
Ukraine produces lots: "In some sectors of the front drones inflict 90 percent of the casualties, but overall drones are responsible for about 60% of Russian casualties." FPV drones are personnel-intensive precision ammunition. And require other forces to keep the Russians fixed to be targeted.
Russia's crown jewel of their conquests: "Because of the continued Ukrainian missile and drone attack, the Russian ship repair activities in Crimea have been shut down. " I had thoughts.
China's extensive control of port operations worldwide is a strategic asset for intelligence gathering, sabotage, and infiltration.
I don't know if the way-too-premature panic about the state of US-Ukraine relations is calculated for political advantage or not.
A U.S. infantry battalion trains for combat in INDOPACOM. Crawl, walk, run. Just in case.
FFS: "Almost 100 Air Force Academy cadets have admitted to cheating or tolerating it during a weekly knowledge test, typically required for freshmen." What does holding them accountable mean? Do we need to sacrifice them to remind future and current officers that their oath matters?
A call for NATO to copy Russian long-range glide bombs to avoid air defenses. Sure. But remember that the Russian attacks are simple bombardment rather than close air support for friendly troops in contact with the enemy.
FFS: "The Air Force will inspect its entire fleet of 89 KC-46A Pegasus aerial refueling tankers after cracks were found on two of the four new planes set to be sent to the Military Delivery Center"
The US is sending a Stryker brigade and an aviation brigade to support southern border security.
Red storm writhing. But I don't fling panties at naval suicide drones. As for Russia's crippled Mediterranean flotilla? Saves them from a future naval disaster, IMO.
China prepares conventional and unconventional means to land troops on Taiwan. It adds up, eh?
"Requires" and "has" are different things: "Germany requires a new form of military service to meet its growing defence needs, a leading general has said."
Israel is not obligated to be its enemy's logistics branch.
Carrots alone can't entice Russia into abandoning their war of conquest on Ukraine. Keep the stick in Ukraine's hands.
Sometimes memory fails you. I try to keep that in mind and sometimes qualify statements with "if memory serves me." I recently discovered I started referring to Rumor Intelligence as RUMORINT. I actually checked and years ago I evolved from RUMINT to RUMORINT. Oops. I fixed the errors.
