The Multi-War is Hardly Over

Assad survived the worst of the multi-war ("civil war" seems inadequate) by passing through what was the nadir of his fortunes as enemies proliferated. But with ISIL gone, Assad still does not control large portions of Syria and his enemies may no longer be weakened and distracted by ISIL which fought other rebels and attracted their recruits.

Does this look like Assad has won the multi-war in Syria?

Source.

Large portions of Syria remain outside of Assad's control. And much of the territory extending to the east is largely sparsely populated while good chunks of core Syria in the west are controlled by various rebels.

Assad could yet have another downward slide as Turkey literally enters Syria to deny territory to Assad even as Turkey targets Kurds in the west.

And if Iran is pressed by the coalition it has provoked and by internal unrest, and if Russia finds it can't afford the costs of intervention, Assad's fortunes could slide down again.

Nor is America abandoning our allies in Syria who provided the foot soldiers to defeat ISIL there, which is a threat to Assad one way or the other.

Indeed, America conducted an airstrike on pro-Assad forces which attacked a pro-American local force.

At some point, Assad's small base of support may become exhausted from the blood and treasure they've lost to keep Assad in power. Fear of an ISIL victory kept these backers in line despite the massive death toll and financial loss. How will these backers act without that fear?

Unfortunately, "former" al Qaeda rebels are still a major part of the rebellion in the west.

UPDATE: So the force we hit was a "Russian" force?

U.S. forces killed scores of Russian mercenaries in Syria last week in what may be the deadliest clash between citizens of the former foes since the Cold War, according to one U.S. official and three Russians familiar with the matter.

Now that's enforcing a red line.

The new DMZ--what I later called the DCL (deconfliction line)--firms up.