Well okay, then:
“North Korean officials insist that they will not give up nuclear weapons, and North Korea may now be only months away from the capability to strike the United States with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles,” he said.
Part of my hunch has been that we have given China a deadline to take down North Korea's regime to erase the need for America to strike--with the offer of a better trade deal with China as a secondary reward.
How many months that North Korean capability is I don't know. But we've probably quietly told China what our view is. If my hunch is right.
Which makes harsher sanctions a bit perplexing to me:
Vice President Pence said the Trump administration plans to roll out its harshest sanctions yet against North Korea during a Wednesday news conference in Japan.
“I’m announcing that the United States of America will soon unveil the toughest and most aggressive round of economic sanctions on North Korea ever — and we will continue to isolate North Korea until it abandons its nuclear and ballistic missile programs once and for all,” Pence said, speaking alongside Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his official residence.
I can't imagine that even the harshest sanctions ever can work at this late date. Five years ago? Sure. Two? Quite possibly? But now? Would China (or their businesses) go along with maximum pressure? Would Russia?
Even if China and Russia go along with a full blockade, can it compel North Korea to seriously abandon their nukes in a timeframe that matters and with sufficient clarity to verify it?
North Korea just has to stall American or Chinese action a bit more to cross the nuclear finish line and have a real deterrent force. So even a North Korean capitulation before whatever deadline we have in mind to strike if we don't want to accept a nuclear North Korea can't be trusted.
Would China verify North Koren nuclear disarmament? That's the only way I can see a diplomatic solution. And the United States should make it clear that we will help our allies like Japan, South Korea, and (mumbled (Taiwan) go nuclear if it turns out that North Korea has kept a nuclear arsenal. China needs incentive to keep North Korea denuclearized.
The idea of a limited "bloody nose" strike as a signal to North Korea to back down and agree to get rid of nukes was raised in the first article:
“U.S. officials including the defense secretary and the CIA director repeatedly talked about DPRK nuclear and missile threat to justify their argument for a military option and a new concept of a so-called ‘bloody nose’, a limited pre-emptive strike on the DPRK is under consideration within the U.S. administration,” Ju said.
I just don't see Mattis as the "signal" kind of guy. I think he is being polite and professional, but preparing a plan to destroy every nuke and delivery system north of the DMZ we detect.
So talk of a "bloody nose" strike is probably meant to achieve surprise in the scale of the strike if it is ordered.
And the harsh economic sanctions might be intended not to compel North Korea to capitulate--which we can't trust is real absent Chinese guarantees with real penalties for failure--but to make the case to the world that America has truly tried every measure short of a major strike campaign to get North Korea to abandon nuclear missiles as the UN has long demanded.
America says China is on board maximum economic pressure:
"Both sides reaffirmed President Trump's and President Xi's commitment to keep up pressure on North Korea's illegal weapons and nuclear programs," State Department Spokeswoman Heather Nauert told a news briefing.
But is that because the Chinese think pressure will work, they think a false trip down this path will protect North Korea, or that they are going along with this to justify either backing an American-led attack or their own attack?
And I'm hoping that South Korea which is recently putting daylight between itself and America is playing the "good cop" role in the hope that North Korea won't see South Korea as plotting to take over after an American-led (or Chinese) attack.
UPDATE: If America has a deadline to act, China's deadline to act in order to prevent America from acting is even nearer:
The U.S. director of national intelligence warned on Tuesday that time was running out for the United States to act on the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons program.
So is China willing to see America solve a problem so close to China?
