Weekend Data Dump

The worst-case climate models predicting climate in 2100 assume that coal use will rise to 94% of energy generation from the 2015 level of 28%? Ah, science.

Is all the attention that the sister of Kim Jong-Un is getting in South Korea during the Winter Olympics an effort to raise her profile within North Korea in order for China to stage a coup in North Korea with her as the actual or figurehead leader who would de-nuclearize North Korea? I find it hard to believe this fawning media coverage (She is "an unimpeachable representative" of the murderous Kim regime? Really?) is just an example of appeasement in the face of danger. But I quite literally know nothing about the woman, so consider this sheer speculation, of course.

A Russian AN-148 went down with the loss of all 71 crew and passengers. Crap. Look, I worry about Russia's pointless hostility that is prompting NATO preparations when if left alone would have been happy to not think about Russia at all. But I certainly don't wish them ill as a general rule. This is tragic.

So the European Union is using banking regulations to destroy the authority of member nations in favor of a United States of Europe? Don't be silly. The Euros want a multiethnic empire of centrally run provinces--not a federal system as that name implies. And to be fair, everything the proto-imperial European Union does--including common defense plans--is intended to destroy the authority of the member nations and hasten the day when the "proto" prefix can be junked. As I've said, I'm sure elderly Soviets are amazed that complex EU cheese regulations have proved more effective than Soviet tanks and secret police were in holding the Soviet empire together.

The problems with the new German power projection ship Baden-Wurttemberg has a silver lining if the Germans just break up the ship for parts and resume building smaller warships and submarines to contest the Baltic and North Seas. The return of open Russian aggressiveness means that the Germans waste money on power projection assets. Take the problems of their large new ship as a lucky sign from the gods that the German navy is on the wrong path. And honestly, even if there aren't higher priorities today, does anybody really believe the Germans are willing to project military power far from Germany? My skepticism on this issue is hopefully clear in this post. And I was right to be skeptical back when this ambition was announced.

Twenty-four thousand troops and police won't "resolve" the Ukraine crisis unless by "resolve" you mean freeze the conflict and let Russia get away with their aggression in Crimea and the Donbas while avoiding paying the price to hold their gains by getting America to pay much of the cost for a UN peacekeeping force. Seriously, the UN force will look the other way to violations of the force that is most threatening to the UN force. Will that be Ukraine or Russia which has a UN Security Council veto to deflect punishment?

Russians in the Far East are defacing Putin billboards and local police have been ordered to protect them on their own time. So this is that big of a problem or is Putin that thin-skinned? If the former, Russia had best focus more on holding the Far East than grabbing bits of former empire in Europe.

So what have I learned this week from our media? One, like every week, I learned that Trump is a danger to freedom and liberty in America who must be opposed at all costs. And two, based on the fawning coverage of Rocket Man's sister at the Winter Olympics, that a repressive, murdering government that allows no freedom or liberty is kind of cool and to be admired and celebrated!

I wondered if the estimate of 60,000 (mostly) Taliban fighters in Afghanistan was the full-time count or combination of full- and part-timers. The latter made more sense to me given that I understood insurgencies usually have 10% of fighters full time fighters. And 60,000 full-timers should be the tip of 600,000 and so clearly gaining ground. Strategypage writes that the 60,000 figure is indeed total of full- and part-timers.

France: "President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday that 'France will strike' if chemical weapons are used against civilians in the Syrian conflict in violation of international treaties[.]" But his foreign minister adds the sophisticated European nuance: "'(The president) confirmed that he would proceed to military strikes against regime installations if there was a new use of chemical weapons by Bashar al-Assad's forces when these attacks are lethal and regime's responsibility is proven,' Jean-Yves Le Drian told lawmakers." So as far as France is concerned, Assad is fine if he just cripples civilian victims. Ah, nuance!

261 Abrams tanks will get active protection systems in the 2019 budget to equip 3 armored brigades.

I get the feeling the Chinese enjoyed insulting the British navy in a little revenge for the 19th century. To be fair, a single British warship on a FONOP in the South China Sea is a far cry from British naval dominance that the Chinese consider a humiliation.

It would be nice if the Iranian mullah regime is doomed. And nicer if that doom happens before Iran's mullahs get nukes. But we lost that bet with North Korea.

Evil clown Maduro has driven Venezuela into misery and poverty. His thug regime continues efforts to paint Colombia as a military threat to Venezuela. As a foreign devil to rally Venezuelans around Maduro's vile, inept rule, the Colombians are a poor target as I noted in this older post trying to identify a proper target. The Dutch should really check their ammo and confer with their NATO ally America.

Damn! They're on to us. But pray tell, just what would our lizard spies find if Iran has no nuclear weapons programs?

Those Russian mercenaries we killed in large numbers in eastern Syria were on a mission paid for by Assad and not a part of the Russian expeditionary force. Russia's interest in Syria does not extend to the east, as I've noted, which explains the lack of Russian reaction to the loss. Russia really just cares about the core west of Syria where Russia's air and naval bases are. I have to wonder if Assad sent those Russian mercenaries east to die in order to try to draw Russia into the fight to secure the east. This seems like an appropriate place to note my collection of posts on privatized warfare (only 99 cents!).

I don't understand why so many people are "depressed and miserable." Opportunities are here for everyone--which explains why so many people try to immigrate here even illegally just to have a chance at the bottom rung of the ladder. I remain happy. As I was during the Obama and Bush 43 years, and most of the years before that (hey, even in a good life there are stumbles and road blocks to recover from or overcome). Cherish your lives, people. We have much to be grateful for in America, every day.

Colluding with hate.

A Security Force Assistance Brigade goes to war in Afghanistan. This new type of unit designed to advise and assist local forces frees up special forces who traditionally did this mission so they can focus on direct action missions; and prevents combat brigades from being torn apart to carry out the mission, leaving these units available for large-scale combat missions.

Wow, I thought "affirmative consent" referred to the female giving consent to a male, and not the agents of the state ordering consent by the female. My daughter has permission to knee the boy in the groin if he doesn't take "no" for an answer the first time.

Secretary of Defense Mattis is adamant that NATO commitments to spend on defense are in no way lessened by carrying out alliance activities as Germany and Italy farcically argue. I've noted the idiocy of the position advanced by the German secretary of defense who seems to have no clue about her job description. I hope Mattis brought his clue bat to Europe.

These authors argue that it is wrong to say that North Korea represents an intelligence failure, given that intelligence accurately told us that North Korea is pursuing nuclear missiles. I think this is a fair defense. It is too much to expect that much precision. I think the real problem is the stupid "imminent" standard that the anti-Iraq War side popularized to argue against stopping a thug ruler who wants WMD.

Trying to win the war might be the novel means of ending the very long war in Afghanistan.

Sure, Iran is being quieter in reaction to the uncertainty of what Trump might do. But this is no American victory. This is just Iran's mullahs trying to avoid making eye contact with Trump before Iran can get nuclear weapons under the protective shield of the horrible nuclear deal.

Russia is building air and missile defenses to protect their occupied Crimea base region as well as the new Kerch Strait bridge that links Crimea to Russian territory to the east. The bridge is a good news/bad news development. The good news is that it means Russia doesn't feel the need to escalate the war in the Donbas to gain a land bridge to Crimea through Ukrainian territory. The bad news is that a bridge will ease Russia's ability to deploy and supply an invasion force that could use Crimea as a jumping off point for ground, seaborne, aerial, and airmobile/airborne attacks directly into southern Ukraine.

Fake news and collusion. As I noted before, I was dumbfounded by the apparently widespread "expert" support for the Iran nuclear deal that, as it turns out, was AstroTurfed by the administration. Pity the anti "fake news" campaign wasn't around back then to counter the successful propaganda effort. Although I contend the best remedy to fake news--which has always been around--is not to look to an authority with its own biases to tell you what is real, but to have the education and experience to detect it yourself.

Pakistan clearly sides with Saudi Arabia rather than Iran in that contest for allies.

America and Turkey agree to mend their divisions over Syrian Kurds.

Good Lord, the UN itself is one reason some countries are sh*tholes. Sixty thousand rapes over a decade by their staffs? Tip to Instapundit.

An old post on predicting the future with computer programs. I forgot about this. I really would love to see the products from that.

An Air Force microaggression? More like a Small Diameter Aggression.

Real resistance against real tyranny: the hijab protest in Iran continues.Women have been fined, jailed and even lashed; although Tehran police announced they'd no longer arrest women--I assume to avoid bad images going out to the world. The punishments will resume when the world loses interest. And I assume that outside of Tehran the punishments are still on.

Has Turkey gone rogue under the Islamist Erdogan? I wouldn't give up on Turkey. But it was clearly foolish for the American government to have believed that Turkey could be a model for the Arab Moslem world in governance by "tame" Islamists. Islamists are all bad, varying only in how bad and how immediately bad they are.

No, the 1968 Pueblo crisis did not nearly spark a nuclear war. Why shouldn't people today think that was true when back then America didn't even think of using nukes? I've noticed that today a lot of people think that  "nuclear war"--which they imagine as a Cold War-level thing of thousands of warheads flying both ways--is a real possibility under Trump. Although if the you worry about North Korea launching any nukes at all, I'll ask what the Hell happened to the whole "imminent" standard for stopping a thug regime pursuing nukes before it gets nukes?

Back when I worked for the state legislature, I would get the call to write the resolutions defending Selfridge Air National Guard Base (and the last one I did was expanded to defend what I think were every federal defense installation in Michigan!) during Defense Base Closure and Realignment (BRAC) rounds. If Selfridge gets the F-35, the next staff that has to write that resolution will have a much easier job, I dare say. Oddly, I can't find it on the legislative web site. Which causes me to doubt how reliable the search function is (or my memory of when I wrote it. I clearly remember sitting in the Senate committee hearing on this in case I had to amend it. Odd, that is).

As much as Turkey's operations in northwest Syria that challenge the Kurds are a problem for America, don't forget Turkey causes friction with Iran and Russia (and Syria) too.

Grant me that this is funny. In retrospect it fully makes sense for the Russians to back a man who honeymooned in the USSR, no? Really, I called it before the election and since--Russia wasn't trying to get Trump elected. His victory undermined part of Russia's objectives. Sadly, Democrats have done the heavy lifting for the Russians since the election to undermine our election process and domestic politics. Russia is acting like America's enemy--not the enemy of just the Democrats. Although I fully welcome their late addition to the anti-Russian coalition.

Well yeah, America remaining in Iraq to help Iraq hold the gains of defeating ISIL is necessary. See 2011 to 2014 if you are unclear.

And Iranian ATR-72 went down killing all 66 aboard. As with the Russian plane, my sympathies go out to the Iranian people notwithstanding opposition to their government. I certainly do have hope that a post-mullah government will be more friendly and reflect what opinion polling suggests is a sizable number of people with a favorable view of America.