NBC News reports that U.S. and Afghan officials estimate the Taliban’s strength in Afghanistan to be a minimum of 60,000 fighters. This updated figure is significant, because as the report notes, for years the only previous estimate was approximately 20,000[.]
Clearly, declaring victory in Afghanistan was premature.
If the new estimate is true, I'd think that the situation would be worse than the stalemate the fight seems to be (with coalition efforts seeming to stem the government decline and push the vector back toward the government in regard to starting to act against the Taliban rather than just reacting and falling back).
And one factor is never clear to me when numbers are brought up in the media. Are these total numbers or just the full-time fighters?
If 60,000 is the total, that included just 6,000 full-timers with the other 54,000 part-time fighters who come and go. That would explain the apparent stalemate. Especially if some of the increase is from other jihadis who oddly weren't considered part of the enemy force total.
But if 60,000 is the count of full-timers, that implies a total insurgent force of 600,000! Cities and bases should be under siege and being over-run by the Taliban if that is the case.
But they are not being contested like that.
UPDATE: A late update from Strategypage noting that the 60,000 figure refers to the total of part- and full-time fighters.
