North Korea’s armed forces have scaled back their annual winter military exercises this year, U.S. officials said, a development they believe reflects growing pressure from international sanctions on the isolated nation’s economy and its military preparedness.
The North Korean maneuvers, which typically run from December through March, were slow in getting started and are less extensive than usual, according to American officials familiar with intelligence reports and experts outside the government.
One possibility is that restrictions on shipments of oil and refined petroleum products to North Korea imposed by the United Nations have led the country, which has one of the world’s largest standing armies, to conserve fuel by cutting back on ground and air training exercises.
Does North Korea really lack the oil to exercise?
Or as I wondered early last year, is a shortage of fuel because North Korea is diverting fuel to war reserve stocks?
The lack of training may be so bad that the North Koreans figure it is worth it to hold back fuel for war rather than waste it on training that cannot make up for past failures to train.
I've long said that North Korea's army is so bad that to invade South Korea the North Koreans would need to road march south against a collapsed South Korean army sent running under a massive chemical weapons barrage.
That article confirms that North Korea relies on factors other than their main army:
An unclassified 2015 report by the U.S. Army on North Korea’s military noted that “the amount of time spent on larger exercises pales in comparison to most Western militaries.”
Still, North Korea retains significant “asymmetric” capabilities that help offset deficiencies in its army and air force. These include chemical weapons, artillery capable of hitting the South Korean capital, special-operations forces and Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs.
I suspect even the special forces are too far gone in readiness, lacking even food--and may be needed to watch the regular army and bolster the secret police to prevent them from staging a coup--to make up for the lack of training in the main army divisions. North Korea is down to their artillery and their chemical weapons, I think.
If North Korea's scaled back training is from diverting fuel to war reserve stocks rather than from a fuel shortage, we might know this year, I suppose.
