Russia is doing a lot with little to build influence in the Mediterranean Sea. But is it worth it?
Russia has limits to its success in the Mediterranean Sea:
Although Moscow has had some success in exerting influence in the Mediterranean, its potential is limited in the long term. In most cases, Russian state-controlled energy and defense companies have been able to exploit weaknesses such as Western concerns of Egypt’s human rights record and Turkey’s increasingly belligerent foreign policy.
Furthermore, Russia has been outflanked by the U.S., EU, and China in other cases. Moscow is not able to offer the same range and quality of alternative elements of statecraft such as development aid and diplomacy.
First, bilateral trade between Russia and most Mediterranean countries is relatively low. Second, investments from Russia in most littoral states are negligible. Third, Moscow does not provide the same level of development assistance as do the West or China.
My view is that Russian diplomatic influence is undermined by Russian military weakness in the region:
I don't worry. A Russian flotilla based in the Mediterranean Sea will lead a short but exciting life during a war. Russia doesn't need a blue water fleet and trying to cling to one is foolish.
Personally I prefer to have Russian defense resources diverted away from the Baltic Sea area to a place where NATO and other allies unlikely to help in the Baltic Sea region (like Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey (?), and to a lesser extent France) can destroy some of Russia's military power in the Mediterranean Sea.
The only way for Russia to really make progress would be to weaken or flip Greece, Italy, or Turkey out of NATO. Those worries of mine are seemingly in the past.
It seems like Russia's military presence in the Mediterranean Sea is for the purpose of justifying the conquest of Crimea as a power projection platform. Invading Ukraine has helped wreck Russia's economy and alienated NATO. But, Russia says to its people, Hey! We sail around in the Mediterranean Sea!
In the short run, Russian resources in the Mediterranean Sea are resources not devoted to the Baltic Sea. And the Russian deployment gives local NATO countries something to destroy in case of war with Russia. So that's good for NATO.
But in the long run, Russia's effort there is a waste of resources better used holding Russia's Far East. That's not good for America or Russia.
UPDATE: By chance I ran across an earlier post on Russia's military weakness and their Mediterranean Sea/Middle East gambit. My worries were based on possibilities that did not happen.
Major fissures in NATO and American alliances that I worried about did not happen. So, Russia can't exploit opportunities that did not arise.
Now just power matters and Russia doesn't have it to spare to make gains at NATO's expense there. So I don't care very much about Russia wasting resources in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
