Weekend Data Dump

It really isn't a long path to follow.

My skepticism about the purity of science credibility predates global warming. A friend in archeology grad school in the 1980s would tell me how the old guard defended Clovis like their cathedral and basically squashed research that would challenge that. Say, a pre-Clovis weapon was found in Texas. Science follows the evidence. But scientists are still people.

How can we continue to be so exceptionally bad at human intelligence?

The headline says that Iran benefits from the Saudi-led effort in the Yemen war. But that is clearly wrong. What they meant to write--and as the article argues--is that Iran spends very little to fight to the last Houthi; while the Saudis spend a lot to avoid friendly forces casualties. So Iran is bleeding Saudi finances. While true, the Saudis can afford to spend the money. Iran is being squeezed financially. And Iran really gains by winning the war to establish another Hezbollah on the Gulf of Aden to threaten oil exports via the Red Sea. In the end, it would be better financially to win the war faster and not fight so cautiously. That's on top of the humanitarian reasons to win the war faster, of course. True compassion, as I noted in the last data dump, argues for a faster victory. Sadly, I suspect Democrats have decided that Yemen is the war they will try to lose in 2019 despite getting what they wanted.

The Navy is committed to resuming LCS patrols in the South China Sea out of Singapore. Funny, I'd recently been wondering about that. The reality of the LCS didn't match the good idea of the reconfigurable ship. But it is the most expendable blue water ship we have and so is good for peacetime engagement in dangerous waters.

The British say that NATO will be "the heart" of their post-Brexit defense strategy. Given that NATO does the heavy lifting of defending Europe, that's good. Membership in the EU reduces European defenses.

This article asks if the anti-vaccine activists are responsible for a measles outbreak in Europe. Last week in a data dump I noted that Russia was active online in promoting the anti-vaxxer people. So Russian disinformation may be harming and killing people. Here, I once read that regions of low vaccination rates could be tagged fairly accurately simply by noting where a Whole Food Market is located. Seriously. Ah, science.

The Russians have used an airfield in eastern Libya at Al-Khadim (Al-Kharouba). I've noted that Russia is testing the waters in their old Khadaffi stomping grounds from the Cold War.

Can America leverage Iran out of Syria when our presence in Syria is authorized to fight ISIL? On the positive side, Russia, Turkey, and even Assad--eventually--would like Iran out of Syria.

The Lithuanian Iron Wolf brigade will be "affiliated with" a German division. I worry that the sad state of Germany's army will just drag down the Lithuanians. But at least the Lithuanian unit won't be a maneuver brigade attached to a German division. In addition, Lithuanian officers will be assigned to the two German tank divisions. Is this to help prepare units that go to the German-led NATO battlegroup in Lithuania? Or does it telegraph that the two German divisions intend to fight in Lithuania if Russia invades?

My daughter made home-made pasta and sauce for dinner one night last week. And I still had delicious leftovers three days later! I'm a lucky dad.

There was only a lull in Boko Haram activity and corruption in Nigeria. That does not bode well for Nigerians or the region.

Even Russian naval infantry have ditched their light tanks for heavy tanks. Just who is left to face a new American light tank? For God's sake, we have Abrams tanks to spare.

Russia disrupted GPS during the NATO Trident Juncture exercise. The Russians didn't give a damn if it risked civilian lives reliant on GPS.

So what is our policy toward Belarus? Whatever it is, it should recognize that Belarus is arguably the most important territory in Europe today.

The Army is well aware that without adequate sealift it can only be sent abroad to die.

American and Iraqi forces continue to hunt and kill jihadis. I still find it amazing that people don't think we won the Iraq War, forgeting that under Saddam Iraq trained jihadi terrorists.

The Russians say the loss of that floating dock that damaged their aircraft carrier means they can't repair that carrier. The Russians should consider this a gift from God and accept their blessing in disguise.

Russia still denies they invaded Ukraine, so their protests that the fake elections in the Donbas don't violate the non-existent ceasefire are not credible to me.

Macron's denunciation of nationalism was really a defense of the proto-imperial European Union project to suppress nations in Europe and put them under the control of Brussels. This was the centennial of the end of World War I. Which the Europeans blame on nationalism infecting the people rather than on the rulers who led European nations to war then and in 1939.

The North Korea nuclear problem is not ended. Are we making progress or just giving Kim the time to go fully nuclear? On the bright side, North Korea is more vulnerable to squeezing them economically. Although I've read that the South Koreans dismiss the report of secret missile facilities.

Venezuela needs aid and not Marines? Well, if aid rather than Marines is provided, that will just help Maduro survive the unrest caused by his cruelty and ineptitude. If we just provide aid, Maduro will leverage it to punish foes and reward friends. The sad fact is that sometimes Marines are required to get the aid to the people who need it. Mind you, I don't want American Marines to be the force that might secure logistics hubs at ports and air fields. South Americans should mount the operation with our logistics help. As for aid now? Send it to the countries that are hosting Venezuelan refugees to keep the flow of people from destabilizing the hosts.

The SDF is scheduled to resume offensive operations against ISIL in eastern Syria.

Reason N+1 of why I don't trust journalism (tip to Instapundit). It's not merely the partisan bias. In the end most journalists know so little about their subject that they accept being spoon fed information to retain "access" to the people involved. This flaw is about more than hiding news that would portray Saddam in a bad light to keep access to Saddam's Iraq, as CNN famously admitted they did. It's tough to figure out what is going on when you do have subject-matter expertise. Few of the clowns out there now have the subject expertise to even try.

Has China fielded light-weight graphene armor on their (crappy) helicopter?

There are very few actual Nazis in America and so the search for them gets ridiculous (tip to Instapundit). I do recall in basic training standing at attention in formation when the drill sergeant asked for a show of hands on something. Everybody's right palm went up. I recall standing there in formation hoping no photograph was taken at that misleading moment. Seriously!

I have no idea how this political earthquake shakes out, but whatever new Israeli government forms will have the backing for whatever Israel does moving forward from the election.

The only thing ironic about this trade statistic (tip to Instapundit) is that the media would have us believe that the Trump administration is walling off America from imports.

If another person says that a multi-billion dollar "wall" along the US-Mexican border can be overcome with a $20 ladder, with a smirk that suggests they are oh so clever, I will simply scream in frustration. Any physical barrier can be overcome if it is not defended. The point of a barrier is to identify and slow down intruders--as even the Great Wall of China was intended--to give time for defenders to plug the breach. It is not to function as a stand-alone impenetrable barrier. 

President Trump absolutely should have restrained himself on the anniversary of the 2015 jihadi terror attack that killed 130 in France. Trump was wrong. Full stop on that.  On the other hand, the "Je suis Charlie" moment has passed in France, which seems to have gotten over a brief flurry of resolve to defy and actually fight the jihadi terrorists. And the French seriously had no problem with the James Taylor Incident? I'd be upset if Obama had treated an ally--no matter how annoying at times--in this manner. Trump was wrong.

India's first nuclear submarine that can be armed with nuclear missiles finished its first deterrence patrol. It was just a test, really, but it is a start. The close distance between India and potential nuclear threats Pakistan and China make unique problems for India (and for China and Pakistan). If India can solve the problem of security and unauthorized launch, nuclear-armed subs are very important for a survivable deterrent to discourage the incentive for an enemy to try a disarming first strike on land-based nuclear forces.

If "nationalists" are really Nazis, as Democrats are oddly claiming, wait until the Democrats find out that Nazis were self-defined "national socialists" where "national" modified their basic socialist nature.

Egypt may give Russia's "new and improved!" Mig-29 a test as a long-legged fighter-bomber.

"Dumb Government Olympics." Heh.

Russia says the jihadis are not separated from the moderate Syrian rebels in Idlib province. Ultimately I think that assessment just telegraphs a Russian effort to kill them all and let Allah sort them out.

I don't know why the Left increasingly hates on Thanksgiving. Are they saying that it was wrong for undocumented aliens in a caravan to come to North America and in time completely change the demographic and political order that existed at the time of their arrival? Huh.

I do hope we fly our F-35s in exercises with their fancy networked systems turned off to see how the plane fights as a stand-alone plane. Because the ALIS system if hacked would provide an enemy with a lot of information. There is also Joint Reprogramming Enterprise (JRE) which shares sensor data. I hadn't heard of this one. If that is corrupted, what would happen? And I worry not just because I grew up watching Battlestar Galactica. I've worried about this for a while now and the problem is still there. The plane seems to work really well when the networked systems are working. Will the systems work against serious cyber-threats?

The U.S. imposed sanctions on 17 Saudi individuals in response to the murder of Khashoggi.

DARPA practiced defending an electrical grid from a cyber attack. That's a start.

Russia's Pantsir S-1 mobile air defense system apparently doesn't work very well.

Half the world's countries have birthrates too low to sustain them. They are disappearing. America's rate is below replacement level but we have an advantage in that we can make an American out of pretty much anybody--unless our policies promote Old World tribalism rather than assimilation.

Hamas' border assaults continue with Iran's backing, and the Israelis will target the armed attackers more persistently. And Iran expands its plans to fight Israel to the last Arab by expanding forces in Syria to help Hezbollah in Lebanon confront Israel, too.

If memory serves me, the Army did better on recruiting and retention even during the height of the Iraq War.

The other day I was driving behind a car with both a "COEXIST" bumper sticker and a "Resist" bumper sticker. Process that for a moment. Thank God I didn't see a University of Michigan decal anywhere on the vehicle.

A company hired to find the Argentinian sub that went missing a year ago with 44 aboard found the submarine. Mostly we discuss how inadequate funding can kill in war. It kills in peacetime, too.

Turkey is not pushing the Khashoggi Affair out of a deep devotion to freedom of the press. I suspect they just want leverage for something. Whether it is to harm rival Saudi Arabia or push down the Kurds in Syria who are also a restive minority in Turkey, there is a price Turkey will accept to drop the whole affair. Is the price in America and would we pay it to ease the pressure on Saudi Arabia? That doesn't seem wise on our part. If the report is true. And in a later development, that is not under consideration. Good.

Secretary Mattis explains that military support to protect and defend the border with Mexico has a long history that extends to recent times under both parties. Indeed, my grandfather was sent to the border a century ago as part of the New York National Guard. Mattis also explained that the MPs are included to protect the engineers and others doing jobs in support of the border police. I had assumed they were a reserve for crowd control. Apparently not.

I once respected the ACLU despite their enthusiasm for defending criminal scum. I have always been strong on civil liberties (as a rule of law guy here) and they were on that issue like ugly on an ape. Criminal scum are where we really test our rule of law. Once upon a time in defense of freedom of speech they would defend actual Nazis. Now the ACLU couldn't care less about civil liberties except as a weapon. This lawyers auxiliary to the Democratic party wouldn't defend someone merely accused by left-wing fanatics of being a Nazi. I mourn their death. They are zombies that merely look like the outfit they once were.

I'm just going to say that Pence has staked out a pretty confident position on our trade disputes with China. What is the CIA and Commerce Department telling the White House about China's economy?

Women in combat units, and Israel's experience in particular.

I suspect the new tactical weapon Kim Jong-Un is boasting about is a multiple rocket launcher because he called it a "steel wall." At this point that is ancient technology. So whatever.