In light of the historical record and the obvious current disjuncture in American and Pakistani objectives in Afghanistan and vis-à-vis India, which Washington considers a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region, it is very surprising that Islamabad and Washington have until now maintained a façade of alliance just as estranged couples preserve the pretense of married life in public. However, the current open spat between Trump and Imran Khan may be the much-awaited signal that divorce is around the corner.
I've called them our Black Sheep ally for a long time.
But I don't see a divorce as long as we rely on Pakistani territory to supply our forces (and those of our allies) in landlocked Afghanistan. Just how would we do that with a clean break with nuclear-armed, nutball-supporting, frenemy Pakistan?
Having a friendly non-nutball Iran for a supply line to Afghanistan would sure help us deal with Pakistan, wouldn't it?
Pre-Ukraine invasion, it was possible to use Russia as an alternate supply route. But that was never more than a means to gain bargaining leverage over Pakistani supply lines. Trusting Putin's Russia is worse than trusting Pakistan.
And a bunch of other problems without nutball Iran around would be less difficult, for that matter.
Not that we want a complete break with Pakistan. We'd consider our Iran relations a roaring success if Iran was as good a friend as Pakistan. Pakistan has nukes and we have an incentive to maintain ties if only to keep the total Islamist nutballs from getting their hands on the nukes.
But it would be great if we needed relations with Pakistan for little more than securing their nukes.
