Three years ago, then Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter attributed Iran’s growing dominance to its being “in the game, on the ground.” He urged its regional rivals to do the same, thus expressing a widely shared sentiment in policy circles at the time: Arab Gulf states needed to rely less on the United States and play a greater role in their neighborhood.
In many ways, that is exactly what these countries have been attempting to do since 2015, and now Carter and others have reason to revisit their advice.
In the absence of strong American leadership, now spanning two administrations, the future of the region hinges on what local powers define as priorities, and how they go about trying to achieve them. Even if Washington decides to wake up, it will now find it far more difficult than in the past to assert itself.
And the issue is older than that. Recall that the splendid little Libya War was celebrated by the Obama administration as a glorious example of "leading from behind."
Here's what I said about that policy five years ago when Japan visibly began to rearm:
So you'd think that Japan's decision to reverse a decade of defense spending decline and actually seek the capabilities to defend themselves would be welcome. We are pivoting to the Pacific and not away from the Persian Gulf, right? So help in the Pacific should be welcome, right?
But no. Sure, the usual suspect is all upset. But I've read that even our government is worried. Why? Because with increased military capabilities, Japan might start an armed confrontation that it cannot now, and drag us into a war with China.
Welcome to the flip side of "leading from behind."
When we want allies who can fight without us taking the lead--wait for it--we get allies who can fight without us in the lead.
So they might fight in Vietnam. Or invade Egypt.
I think a lot of the hand wringing over Saudi Arabia's conduct in the Yemen war is the result of Iranian propaganda. But the Saudis are doing what President Obama wanted them to do.
Yet despite that, I suspect the Democrats in charge of the House of Representatives have chosen Yemen as the war they will try to lose in 2019.
Also, I find it amusing that the author's complaint is that we are absent from the Middle East (we aren't absent) and that we aren't there to be "an umpire to manage conflicts and halt the autocrats’ worst instincts." It seems like just yesterday that anti-war protesters claimed our presence just made things worse.
