Tuesday, November 06, 2018

The China Century?

Based on population, Asia was the center of the global economic map a couple thousand years ago. That ended with industrialization in Western Europe and the rise of America and Canada. The center is shifting back to Asia as China and India gain economic shares at the expense of (mostly) Europe. Does this mark a China Century beginning?

This is interesting:



As Asia industrializes and improves their per capita GDP their population advantage pulls the economic center of gravity back to Asia where it was until the industrial revolution in Europe. Note that the center was pulled toward China from 0 AD to 1600 before heading west.

But does this shift back east mean a Chinese century is underway? Other countries in Asia such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia are part of the pull east and south, too. And India could yet combat corruption and begin to rival China.

Remember that the shifting center of gravity doesn't mean America becomes weak. Or does the center of gravity lying in Russia mean Russia is the true center of gravity now and in the near future?

And you have to consider that the "West" has expanded to include advanced Asian democracies in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, in addition to Australia and New Zealand. Even India is a democracy despite its problems, and it increasingly sides with the West.

In regard to China in particular I've noted, China may pass America by in global economic weight. But that advantage could reverse. I don't think that caution about trends continuing indefinitely is any less true.