I've noted that the Assad regime is losing ground and that this is likely to accelerate. News certainly seems to show that government losses are accelerating.
First, another base was captured:
Syrian rebels said on Sunday they had captured a helicopter base east of Damascus after an overnight assault, their latest gain in a costly battle to unseat President Bashar al-Assad that is drawing nearer to his seat of power.
The Marj al-Sultan base, 15 km (10 miles) from the capital, is the second military facility on the outskirts of the city reported to have fallen to Assad's opponents this month.
Activists said rebels had destroyed two helicopters and taken 15 prisoners.
This was a small base, it seems, but it was a base. Attempts to downplay the loss are just wrong:
They also have devastating air superiority although they have failed to prevent rebels increasing their presence on the edge of the capital and in neighborhoods on the periphery.
A Western diplomat following the fighting said Assad still had the upper hand. "The army will allow positions to fall here and there, but it can still easily muster the strength to drive back the rebels where it sees a danger," the diplomat said.
Upper hand? Rebels are increasing their presence around Damascus despite that air superiority. Just what is the evidence of an upper hand?
Devastating air superiority? I don't think so. Syria's sortie rate is poor and what attacks they make are mostly against civilian targets rather than against armed rebels.
And where is the evidence that Assad can muster the ground power to drive back rebels? Assad is heavily committed to fighting in Damascus (which is now futile) and Aleppo (which has always been folly), and those two large cities are not being secured by the Assad forces. Outside those cities, Assad is losing ground in the east and even in the west where resupply convoys are vulnerable to attack.
Sure, air power is making up somewhat for lack of ground forces, but it hasn't been enough to defeat the rebels. And air power will become less effective over time as planes and pilots wear out. Plus, the rebels are adapting:
Using truck-mounted, DShK heavy machine guns, more commonly referred to as dushkas, FSA fighters say that they’ve managed to establish anti-air defenses capable of challenging jets.
Dushkas are one of the more difficult weapons for FSA fighters to acquire and in almost all cases must be captured from the regime forces or brought over by defectors. The anti-air defense network has grown slowly over the last several months, but many now say it’s reached a point where it can effectively challenge airplanes and helicopters.
These won't really challenge aircraft. The rebels over-state their effectiveness. But they will tend to push pilots to fly higher to avoid even the small chance of being shot down. And flying higher means that dumb bombs will be even more ineffective in attacking armed units rather than just bombing civilian neighborhoods. And they will be a threat to helicopters. Especially if the rebels can find patterns in helicopter flight paths to set up flak traps to ambush the helicopters. Insurgents in Iraq managed to do this on a few occasions against our craft.
Despite any claims that Assad can easily muster troops to take back what the rebels capture, Assad is losing control of the border area with Turkey even in the west where Assad has most of his army. He is reduced to simply bombing the rebels:
Syrian warplanes bombed a rebel headquarters near the Turkish border on Monday, missing their target but sending hundreds of Syrians fleeing across the frontier.
The attack on the Free Syrian Army base in Atima, 2 km (1 mile) from the border, came a day before Turkish and NATO officials were due to start assessing where to station surface-to-air missiles close to the 900 km (560 mile) border. ...
Rebels fired anti-aircraft guns at the jets but they were flying too high to be hit, activists said. "I think the reason for the raid may have something to do with increased weapons movements (from Turkey)," Ahmed said.
Note that the planes flew high, which no doubt contributed greatly to missing their target.
Assad has too few troops to defeat the rebels or even hold what he has, so he is losing ground. And his air power isn't even strong enough to punish the rebels on the ground let alone replace ground troops in trying to hold Syria in the face of the rebellion.
Give the rebels enough time, even with their supply shortages, and they'll cause the Syrian army to collapse. Remember, their troops don't have the luxury of even 15-month tours of duty. They must fight or die. Eventually they'll figure they have a third choice--run.
UPDATE: More on the fighting and air strikes. Note this, in particular:
A government jet dropped barrel bombs - cylinders packed with explosives and petrol - at the Abu Hilal olive oil press, 2 km (1.2 miles) west of Idlib city, activist Tareq Abdelhaq said.
If that activist is accurate, that is interesting. Strategypage has written of helicopters being used to drop such improvised bombs. Syria has war reserve stocks, so they don't need barrel bombs for lack of manufactured bombs but because of lack of pilots to fly planes to drop bombs. If a jet is being used, it must be an Il-76 transport rolling them out the ramp.
Remember, "precision" is not a word to associate with these things. They are just useful for dropping on large targets with civilians all around liable to be killed regardless of where it lands and explodes.
This doesn't win this war. It just makes sure it is fought to the death.
