Saturday, November 10, 2012

Proof of Life

Syria's rebels have gotten only limited support from the West so far. That may change as the West considers military aid and no-fly zones.

Moslem states have been funneling arms to jihadis fighting Assad while the non-jihadis are crippled by lack of arms. That may change:

The Syrian conflict could be set for an influx of arms in the coming months, as Britain is reviewing its legal options for supplying weapons to the Syrian rebels despite an EU arms embargo on the conflict, and Turkey is in discussions with NATO to deploy Patriot missile interceptors along its southern border.

The British expect more flexibility from the post-election United States now:

Cameron made clear he believes that stage may have been reached after he visited the refugee camp, where 110,000 Syrians are sheltering. "I think what I have seen and heard today is truly appalling," said. "I think [with] a re-elected president [Obama] with a new mandate … it's really important to discuss what more we can do to help resolve the situation."

One thing that I find funny is that the West is despairing that the nicer exile leadership isn't in charge of the in-country resistance who have far more jihadis with them. In Iraq, the left complained that Bush relied too much on out-of-touch Iraqi exiles while failing to consider the more relevant internal resistance leadership.

But I digress.

I've thought we should arm the rebels all along just to harm Assad and get a measure of revenge for his role in fueling the al Qaeda terror campaign and Baathist resistance in Iraq. Even if we failed, it would throw a scare into Assad at least.

And letting the Saudis and Qataris ship arms to jihadis is making it easier for jihadis rather than our ill-equipped guys to recruit Syrians who want to resist Assad.

But hesitation to jump in is at least understandable. In our own Revolution, we had to prove to France that we could beat Britain before the French would intervene on a larger scale and openly. We finally did that at Saratoga in fall 1777--nearly 2-1/2 years after we started fighting the British and more than a year after we declared independence.

I've likened Assad's futile fight for Aleppo as a version of Verdun where the Assad army is bleeding to death even if it manages to secure and hold the city (which Assad's forces have not managed to do).

But perhaps the rebel stand in Aleppo is more like the Battle of Saratoga, proving that the rebels can fight the Syrians to a draw. And while rebels fight in Aleppo, others take advantage of the lack of loyal Assad troops elsewhere to gain control of the countrysides and the border crossings into Turkey.

People always like the strong horse, right?