Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Picking Off Hamas

While Hizbollah is busy trying to save Assad in Syria, Israel has taken advantage of a decapitation strike to invade Gaza.

Israel has gone into Gaza:

Operation "Pillar of Defence" began with a surgical strike on a car carrying the commander of the military wing of Hamas, the Iranian-armed Islamist movement which controls Gaza and dominates a score of smaller armed groups.

Within minutes of the death of Ahmed Al-Jaabari, big explosions shook Gaza as the Israeli air force struck at selected targets just before sundown, blasting plumes of smoke and debris high above the crowded city. ...

Army tanks shelled border areas of Gaza in south and the Israeli navy shelled a Hamas security position from the sea.

This doesn't mention Israeli troops going into Gaza, but this article says they are:

Although it has not yet officially been announced–but Hamas knows it very well–Israeli soldiers are on the ground in the Gaza Strip for the first time since January 2009.

Last time during the winter of 2008-2009, the Israelis softened up the Hamas defenders for a while before sending in troops. This will get the element of surprise and perhaps the killing of Al-Jaabari will mess up command and control among the Palestinians enough to justify fast ground action.

Let's see how fast Israel winds this up and whether Hezbollah is willing to fight a two-front war and risk both their Syrian patron and their southern Lebanon base.

I'd guess this will be a faster war than the last round just to keep Egypt from coming under too much pressure to react to Israel's attack.

UPDATE: No mention of ground forces today, but Egypt is already getting difficult:

Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi said in a televised address to the nation that Israel's attacks on the Gaza Strip were "unacceptable" and would lead to instability in the region. ...

Israel's sworn enemy Iran, which supports and arms Hamas, condemned the offensive begun by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) as "organized terrorism".

Israel was more concerned about the mood in Egypt, whose new Islamist government brokered a truce between the two sides on Tuesday only to see it shattered a day later when Israel assassinated the top Hamas military commander.

Hamas reportedly used a longer-ranged Fajr 5 rocket that Iran managed to get into Gaza. That puts more of Israel under threat.

But Israel can't let this push an already shaky Egypt into opposition. Whatever Israel does has to be done fast.