Thursday, November 22, 2012

Freedom of Choice

Israel ended the fight with Hamas without resorting to ground forces. Whether that was a wise choice or a mistake is not clear to me, but it is clear that Iron Dome bought Israel the freedom to end the conflict without using ground troops. That luxury likely won't last into the next rocket war.

Secretary of Defense Panetta released a statement reading, in part:

Minister Barak thanked Secretary Panetta and the Obama Administration for U.S. support of the Iron Dome counter-rocket system. The system intercepted over 85 percent of rockets fired at Israeli civilians and provided decision space for Israel to achieve its strategic goals without forcing further military actions.

Since Israel fended off the strikes against their civilians, they did not feel compelled to do something greater than air and naval bombardment to keep civilians from being killed and wounded.

I would like to caution that this does not mean ground forces couldn't have been helpful. I do not think a conflict against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon could be restricted to air power because Iron Dome exists.

Hamas learned to volley fire their rockets to overwhelm the thin screen that Iron Dome is. Hezbollah, with far more rockets to launch, would be in a better position to successfully overwhelm Iron Dome with larger volleys.

That's where ground forces come in. Without ground threats, Hezbollah will be more able to set up rockets for that volley. With ground troops advancing, Hezbollah will feel the need to use rockets or lose them (or their launch sites) before Israeli ground troops overrun them. In the rush to use them before losing them, the barrages will be more ragged and thus less likely to take place in numbers large enough to overwhelm Iron Dome's capabilities.

Indeed, Hamas will no doubt attempt to build up a volley capability that allows them to get in some shots that at least initially exceed the capacity of Iron Dome to defend.