Let's Make a Deal?

Does President Obama now have flexibility to make a nuclear deal with Iran? Perhaps. But why would he risk it and why would Iran bother?

Now we speculate about a second-term Obama foreign policy. Here's the Iran front:

The re-election of Barack Obama may open an opportunity for new negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program as sanctions pile economic pressure on its theocratic leaders.

Having so far resisted those in the United States, and Israel, who have pushed for military action against Iran, and now with no more elections to fight, the president appears free to pursue a diplomatic settlement while wielding the threat of yet heavier commercial penalties if Tehran does not bend.

"Obama has prepared the ground very carefully and has the option of trying to cut some kind of a deal on the nuclear issue and that's worth a lot to him," said Gary Sick, an Iran expert and former U.S. national security official.

Last month, the White House said the option of bilateral talks with Iran, with whom Washington has not had diplomatic relations for three decades, was under consideration.

One, we'd go all unilateral and abandon the talks with our allies at our side? How cowboyish.

Two, I think the only incentive the Obama administration has for a deal is one that could have gotten them past the election. The election is gone. Now a deal would have to withstand scrutiny for four years. Iran won't agree to anything like that.

Three, Iran has no desire to bend to America's will and doesn't even seem like it wants to pretend to do so. After early administration deadlines that passed, Iran likely has little fear of the Obama administration.

Further, Iran has decades-long experience at dodging sanctions. Perhaps the latest sanctions are more biting than I suspect. But I doubt it. As time goes on, Iran will regain ground. And ratcheting up sanctions gradually over time minimizes the impact while maximizing Iran's ability to cope.

We'll see. But I suspect it would be safer for the administration politically to simply pretend to confront Iran with sanctions while restraining Israel by holding out the prospect of military action. A deal risks debate here and the possibility that Iran won't bother to hide cheating.

Remember, too, we're "responsibly ending" our wars in CENTCOM and pivoting to the Pacific away from the Middle East. The last thing the administration wants is direct combat in the Middle East.

And if Iran goes nuclear openly without a deal? Oh well. We tried. Deterrence it is, then.

And if Iran develops a nuclear capability short of open possession of nuclear missiles? We'll deny that is an unacceptable situation and deny we even have evidence that Iran wants nuclear weapons.

I honestly don't see why either party would want a deal at this point.