Monday, July 16, 2012

Divide and Conquer

Eschewing charm, China played power politics in ASEAN to divide and conquer opposition to China's expansive claims to the South China Sea:

Southeast Asian nations have failed to reach agreement on a maritime dispute involving China, ending a foreign ministers' summit in disarray after Beijing appeared to split the 10 countries over the contentious issue.

The Philippines said in a statement on Friday that it "deplores" the failure of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit to address the worsening row, and criticized Cambodia in unusually strong language for its handling of the issue.

We responded by bolstering the notion that all the smaller nations should approach China in a united front rather than being picked off one by one by China:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned on Thursday of more confrontations in the South China Sea without a region-wide solution as China rebuffed calls to expedite talks on rules for operating in disputed waters.

Never forget that we have an important role in bolstering the many and varied countries around China that would prefer not to be bossed around by China. Divide and conquer would be a lot easier if we weren't nearby and strong.

The Philippines needs to arm up. This isn't Obamacare--they can't just restart the American alliance after being out of it for two decades at their choice, and now assume their preexisting condition qualifies for unconditional insurance for their claims against China.

Obviously, the Philippines can't cope with China on their own. They don't have the resources.

But Manila can make sure that China has to make a major effort over a longer period of time to defeat the Philippines and assert control over disputed islands. That will raise alarms in the region over China's ambitions and increase the risk that China has to run that America will intervene in some way.