Jeff Jacoby had the same reaction I had to Waltz's bizarre argument in a so-called prestige journal that we should actually welcome Iran to the nuclear club as a measure to promote stability in the Middle East. The problem with this idiocy, as I worry, is that it reflects the growing consensus of our foreign policy elites as it prepares to shift ground as Iran nears nuclear weapons capabilities.
These elites have long argued that military force should be the last resort after sanctions and diplomacy. But as those measures have predictably failed and Iran's nuclear capability is merely a matter of time (unless we are saved by a miracle and the people of Iran overthrow the mullah regime), our Nuanced Americans have found another resort before attacking Iran--learning to love the mullah Bomb, as Jacoby writes:
Yet the appeal of Waltz’s view should not be underestimated, especially as the West approaches the ultimate red line — the moment when Iran’s nuclear facilities will be too far advanced to be taken out in a pre-emptive strike. Faced with the prospect of military action to stop an evil regime, there will always be those eager for reassurance that everything will work out as long as we do nothing.
Sometimes you have to be really smart to craft a credible argument for a totally stupid idea. And God help us, lots of people want that reassurance from really smart people writing in really smart journals.
Good God, people, Waltz is one step away from droning on about our precious bodily fluids.
UPDATE: And the sanctions aren't as crippling as we pretend they are:
The sanctions applied thus far certainly have complicated Iran's day-to-day business operations. However, Iran is well versed in deception tactics to allow itself and its clients to evade sanctions and thus dampen the effects of the U.S. campaign.
How far are we from deciding on striking Iran's nukes or liking Iran's nukes?
Oh, and let me add that this is so because Iran has been living under sanctions for decades. They know how to evade them. They hurt but they aren't crippling. In the future, if we decide on sanctions for a country, apply them hard and fast so they have the maximum shock effect without giving them time to learn how to cope with gradually escalating sanctions.
