It appears that most of the 300,000 man army (as well as most of the 100,000 police and other security troops) is now considered actually, or potentially, unreliable. The secret police (about 50,000 full-timers on the payroll, and about as many reliable part-timers and gangsters-for-hire) are the major reason for this. The troops have been told that all the protestors are Islamic radicals (who are not very popular these days, because of all the Islamic radical violence in Iraq), but time-and-again find that there are no religious radicals, only people like them calling for freedom, jobs and reforms. The secret police and loyal troops kill the people, and this drives more and more troops to join the rebels.
Does Assad role the dice before Friday, when after-mosque protests typically take place?
UPDATE: More on loyalty issues:
However, reports of internal divisions and fighting between branches of the security forces have been trickling out for weeks. But, by and large, Syrian security forces -- unlike those that stood aside or helped revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt -- have remained loyal to the regime.
Well, I wouldn't put it quite like that. Enough Syrian troops and secret police have been loyal enough to shoot civilians. The remainder seem to have been loyal enough to watch other troops shoot civilians but not to participate themselves. The regime has shuttled loyal troops around to hit the protesters while leaving the remainder of the troops to maintain a government presence and hopefully deter protests where the most loyal troops are not deployed.
The question now is whether those troops who have been loyal enough to obey orders to move around and tolerate other troops shooting at protesters can be counted on to do even that minimal amount of work for the Assad regime.
One can only assume that the most loyal troops are surrounding Jisr al-Shughour, site of the apparent revolt by some army troops that led to the deaths of 120 regime security forces:
"The reinforcements are complete and the army could storm the city at any moment," Osso, who lives in Syria, told The Associated Press by telephone after talking to contacts in the area. He said operation involves the elite 4th Division commanded by Assad's younger brother, Maher.
These have been the most loyal army troops. But it is only a division. What can it do if large parts of the rest of the army refuse to tolerate their killing of civilians?
Heck, how long can even the most loyal troops shoot at civilians? Even they have to notice that they aren't facing Islamist or Jewish invaders.
