Monday, June 06, 2011

Willing to Fight?

So far, we've seen that protesters in Syria are willing to be shot during protests. Are the protesters moving beyond being willing to die?

Armed groups ambushed Syrian security forces in a tense northern city, killing 40 policemen and security forces in a region where the army has carried out deadly operations against anti-government protesters for days, Syrian state television said Monday.

Syria's military has been attacking the town of Jisr al-Shughour as part of a nationwide crackdown on an uprising calling for an end to President Bashar Assad's regime. Human rights groups say at least 35 people have been killed there since Saturday.

Communications appeared to have been cut to the area on Monday, but there have been unconfirmed reports in the past by residents and activists of Syrians fighting back against security forces.

Syrian authorities have played up or made up shootings by protesters to justify their massive use of deadly force. So it is hard to say if this is true. Still, those on the receiving end of government bullets say they are fighting back. Protesters may have decided that they won't just take it passively.

The question is, will troops unwilling so far to shoot at protesters become willing to shoot at armed rebels? Or will the troops, too, feel that government (and foreign) loyal troops and goons have done too much killing? Could civilian armed resistance actually shame the troops to to side with the people and shoot at the government troops, secret police, paid thugs, and foreign enforcers?

UPDATE: Holy crud:

Armed men killed 120 Syrian security forces and torched government buildings Monday in a northern region where troops have unleashed deadly assaults on protesters for days, Syria said. The government vowed to respond "decisively," hinting at an even more brutal crackdown by a regime known for ruthlessly crushing dissent.

Resistance has reached the point where a company of government troops could be wiped out? We never suffered even the loss of an entire platoon (20-50 men) through all the years of Iraq and Afghanistan. Syrian troops really just aren't very good.

If Assad wants an excuse to go fully papa Assad and accelerate the pace of killing, this is it.

UPDATE: While Syrian security forces have clearly wanted people to think they are fighting foreign terrorists (going so far to plant weapons on the dead), I can't imagine that the government would think that admitting to getting their butts whipped is a good idea. If anything, wouldn't the government undercount the dead if a Syrian resistance is active in order to reduce the chance anyone would think the insurrection could work? This is one of those incidents where I look forward to seeing what Strategypage's sources have to say about the incident.

UPDATE: The ship sailed on that insurrection thing:

Mutinous Syrian soldiers joined forces with protesters after days of crackdowns in a tense northern region, apparently killing dozens of officers and security guards, residents and activists said Tuesday.

The details of what happened in Jisr al-Shughour remain murky, but if confirmed the mutiny would be an extraordinary crack in the regime, which sees its 40-year grip on the country eroded weekly by thousands of protesters calling for the ouster of President Bashar Assad.

Well that explains the death toll. It wasn't some collection of protesters finally fed up with being shot at and arrested. It was an army mutiny.

I don't think Assad has many troops loyal enough to shoot civilians. He really needs even the less reliable troops to be willing to just keep an eye on areas while the loyal troops are elsewhere. If those troops can't be trusted to at least keep a lid on restive populations centers, how can Assad put down the unrest?