So the Russians will retain Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which they already had before the war; failed to overthrow the Georgian government, just using enough force to anger Georgians and remind them of the Russian threat without destroying Georgia; and angered the West rather than cowed it with their partial invasion. All the Russians got was a short-term dose of self-esteem that will wear off as the reality of Russian weakness eventually becomes apparent.But other than that, the war is going just swell for Moscow.
If Russia had gone all the way to Tbilisi and installed a puppet regime in a week of fighting while the West was dithering, we might be able to say that Russia won the war.
But Russia didn't go for the Gold, for whatever reason.
When you start to take Tbilisi, take Tbilisi.
I just didn't see how so many analysts could claim Russia won the war notwithstanding their battlefield victory over the ill-prepared Georgian military.
This article in Military Review argues that Russia lost the war:
Yet, while Russia won the war in tactical and operational terms, it is fast becoming clear to Moscow—as it should have been before the war—that Russia’s strategic losses are mounting and will in time eclipse the gains Russia obtained through the use of force.
And this is important to remember as well:
A limited Russian peace enforcement operation (to use U.S. terminology) to expel Georgian forces from South Ossetia would have sufficiently proven Russia’s point, thwarted Georgian policy, discredited the Saakashvili regime, and provoked little response. Instead, blinded with a desire to show the world who is boss in the CIS, to humiliate and overthrow Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, and to demonstrate that Russia is still a great power not to be trifled with, Putin went for broke. His personal hatred for Saakashvili and his revanchist and resentful feelings against America are the underlying causes of the invasion—and prove who is the real power behind the throne. There is abundant evidence that the war was a Putin-led provocation from start to finish, designed to achieve the geopolitical and personal goals listed above, and perhaps inspired by a need to show President Medvedev that he does not actually control Russia and cannot dislodge members of the security services from power. If nothing else, the size, scope, and speed of Moscow’s combined arms response and continuing occupation and Russification of Georgian territories in defiance of its own cease-fire suggest as much.
Putin started the war. And other than lying to his own people to make it look like a glorious defense of the Motherland against rapacious Western conspiracies, Russia has little to show from this excercise in bolstering self esteem.
Well, nothing to show from it other than pushing American-Georgian relations closer:
The United States and Georgia Friday signed a bilateral charter on strategic partnership aimed at increasing cooperation in defense, trade, energy and other areas. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the deal should advance Georgia's bid for membership in NATO and other western structures.
State Department officials stress that the charter is a not a mutual defense treaty, but they say it is a highly-visible sign of American support for the Caucuses state in the aftermath of its conflict with Russia last August.
The agreement provides a road map for cooperation between the two countries across the spectrum of bilateral relations, including U.S. assistance to Georgia's military to help that country qualify for NATO membership.
So we took another step in the process of keeping Russia from going for round two.
Well played, Vladimir! Bravo! You the man!
Time to celebrate and whip off that shirt! Woo hoo!
