Russia says they will begin pulling out of Georgia tomorrow:
Russia's president promised to start withdrawing forces from positions in Georgia on Monday, but suggested they could stay in the breakaway region at the heart of the fighting that has reignited Cold War tensions.
The war in Georgia has not gained Russia anything it didn't already have. So Russia now claims Abkhazia and South Ossetia? So what? They had them before the war.
And the war has lost Russia standing in the world. And the Georgians seem to be emboldened by the Western support they have received thus far rather than being cowed by the Russian attack. The Germans, who were key in putting off Georgia's application for NATO in the spring, now publicly say that Georgia will get into NATO.
Nor have the Russian armed forces shined in their offensive, as it seemed to me.
Since I got back from vacation and started paying closer attention to the war, I've found it hard to see how Russia has won anything.
But I think this was all a big self esteem exercise. First of all, for Putin. Medvedev may sign documents and be the president of Russia, but nothing happens in Russia without Putin's assent, and the war shows this. Medvedev signs a ceasefire and agrees to withdraw from Georgia? That's nice. But what does Putin want?
Second, this was for the Russian people. They feel good pounding Georgia after a generation of losing ground. Never mind the difficulties Russia had in subduing their small neighbor, in the end they made the Georgians retreat. This may not be 1968, but for the moment the Russians can believe it feels like 1968.
But with the rest of Europe reacting by closing ranks against the faux rise of Russia, the Russians will eventually realize that they've been duped by their leader, Putin. Cheap self-esteem exercises tend to work out that way.
We are winning the Georgia War despite the battlefield defeats the Georgians endured. They did well enough.
And all without America firing a shot at the Russians. Not too shabby at all.
