An array of intelligence analysts, Asian and American scholars, specialists in think tanks, and workers in relief organizations have renewed speculation that the North Korean regime of Kim Jong Il is in danger of collapsing because that nation is on the brink of mass starvation and mounting isolation.
No one will even guess when this might happen-within a year, more likely within five years, and almost surely within ten years? Will the collapse be a "soft landing" in which Kim's regime gradually falls apart with the pieces picked up by the South Koreans, or will it be a "hard landing" in which Kim's regime implodes and chaos sweeps the land?
I know a number of people think we should have either caved and given North Korea tons of money, or should have smashed North Korea. But I've been happy squeezing them while making no real concessions. Talk, talk, die die, I called it:
Personally, I simply want the talks to drag on while North Korea implodes. Every month the talks go on, the more North Korea's military machine deteriorates. Each month, North Koreans head toward the point when fear is outweighed by desperation.
Yet the talks keep the North Koreans hoping for a respite to their woes if we hand them the big check again. This hope keeps them from launching a desperate war while they can do some damage and hopefully get a frightenend West to agree to shovel money at them. The West has capitulated before and Pyongyang expects us to break again.
So keep talking and let North Korea walk if they get upset about us bringing up other issues. Every month they have a weaker option of going to war. And if they go to war, all bets are off on regime change. Nobody's stopping at the DMZ this time if the North launches a war.
After years of talking and squeezing the nutballs in Pyongyang, North Korea's military has deteriorated to the point that I don't believe North Korea has a military option any more.
Extorting money relied on the threat of invading South Korea and that ability is gone.
We talked. And they will die.
