Friday, August 01, 2008

Dim Bulbs

The Taiwanese military had planned a night exercise over a blacked-out Taipei in order to test their air defenses. They will not be held now:

But many people in the capital were opposed to the plan, saying a blackout would force them to give up entertainment and related activities.

Defense experts also questioned the drill's usefulness, noting missiles can hone in on targets with or without lights.


Those defense experts have a point. With advanced fighters using GPS-guided weapons and advanced targeting equipment, darkness is no barrier to attacking aircraft or precision missiles.

But why assume an enemy will always be attacking with such technology working at full effectiveness? China has limited supplies of advanced weapons and aircraft. Lots of obsolete attack aircraft or aircraft flown by rookie pilots, not to mention transports, might find a lit-up city easier to attack. I'd black out my cities if under attack just to make sure the enemy can't use anything but their most advanced and scarce weapons if they want to hit anything.

More importantly, what does the attitude in Taipei tell the Chinese? Refusing to accept the inconvenience of one night of blackout for a military exercise because their entertainment would be curtailed just shouts "invade me!" It doesn't matter whether a blackout exercise is necessary. Sucking it up and cheering on their air defense troops would have been an important message to send to China.

What are the Taiwanese thinking? Taiwan is small. If the Taiwanese wish to remain free and prosperous they have to present themselves as too hard to conquer and digest by a far larger China that is limited only by their tolerance for Chinese casualties to invade and take Taiwan.

If China wins, Peking will turn out the lights on Taiwan for decades to come. And that will royally screw up a lot of entertainment and related activities.