Russia is already playing the Georgia card in trying to intimidate their neighbors. The most obvious country under threat is Ukraine (Thanks to Ben H. for the link):
Ukraine fears it could be the next target of Russia's campaign to reassert influence over countries it long dominated in the Soviet Union, with Moscow well placed to foment separatist feelings in its Russian-speaking regions. ...
Analysts say the Crimea region in southern Ukraine could be used by Russia to destabilise Ukraine. It hosts Russia's Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol and the majority of people living there are ethnic Russians.
Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine could also provide fertile ground, the analysts say.
Chumak said Russia could take advantage if Ukrainian politicians failed to resolve their differences and continued to let legislation slide. Yushchenko and his prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, have sparred over almost all policy decisions since she came to power in December.
"In that situation then Russia will start playing games, start provoking Ukraine, especially with Crimea," he said.
Ukraine lacks a military able to stop a Russian incursion. Only sheer size may save them in the short run.
Ukraine has reason to worry, but after stomping incompletely on little Georgia, the Russians aren't ready to take on the far larger Ukraine. For now, the Russians puff up and yell at Moldova over the Trans-Dniester region:
Trans-Dniester, a long strip of territory on Moldova's eastern border with Ukraine, broke away from Moldova in 1990 and a war between Moldovan forces and separatists in 1992 left 1,500 people dead.
It is not recognized internationally, but is supported by Russia, which has 1,500 troops stationed there to guard weapons storage facilities left by the Soviet military.
Kuzmin said Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia because of "Georgia's aggression against South Ossetia," and said, "Moldova should draw its own positive conclusions after the conflict in South Ossetia."
"It is simply impossible ... to have Moldova behave in a similar way to Georgia," he said in Russian.
"I believe that (in Moldova) the leaders will use their wisdom ... to not allow such a bloody and catastrophic trend of events" here, he said.
But he added he was glad "there is no intention to escalate the situation in the security zone (a demilitarized area along the Dniester River) and I believe that there shouldn't be any."
Russia's President Medvedev met with Moldova's President Vladimir Voronin on Monday in the Black Sea port of Sochi to discuss Trans-Dniester.
Putin will have trouble restarting the Soviet Union even against Moldova notwithstanding their poke at Georgia.
Far reduced military power is the least of his problems, actually. The Soviet Union not only had the military power but the internal control to be aggressive. To each according to their need and from each according to their ability meant that the Soviets could tell Russians they needed nothing and would take whatever the party needed to be a superpower.
Today, internal power is not as neat. Oligarchs believe that their rules are to them according to their wants and from each of them according to their political influence.
The oligarchs are checking their bank accounts while Putin is having his mid-life crisis, tooling around the Causasus in his shiny red T-80:
Oh, to be a fly on the wall next month at the annual "summit" of Russia's richest capitalists and Vladimir Putin. Will the oligarchs tell the modern-day czar, "Bravo on invading Georgia!" Or might they whisper, "Watch out what you do to our economy." The latter would be smarter.
Soviet leaders during the cold war never had to deal with pesky capitalists when they rolled tanks into other countries. In today's Russia, Mr. Putin may sit on gushers of oil money and he has co-opted the business class to his authoritarian rule, but he must still live with Adam Smith's invisible hand.
Markets do react to unpleasant facts, such as other peoples' fear and resentment of Russian bullying. And since the invasion, markets have sent a clear signal of Nyet. Many investors – both foreign and domestic – are fleeing Russia. Its currency reserves and stock market have plunged in recent weeks. And that's on top of the West's warning that relations with Russia will not be "business as usual."
Don't believe we have no leverage over Russia. Our military can handle them if push comes to shove, but all our military has to do is contain them.
And a key player to work on will be the Russian oligarchs who, rather than rallying around the flag as Putin struts shirtless in the Near Abroad, are concerned about their profits.
UPDATE: The G-7 nations condemned the Russians:
The United States, Britain, France, Canada, Germany, Japan and Italy said Russia's decision to recognize the Georgian rebel territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states violated the territorial integrity of its small, Western-leaning neighbor.
"Russia's decision has called into question its commitment to peace and security in the Caucasus," the counties' foreign ministers said in a statement. "We deplore Russia's excessive use of military force in Georgia and its continued occupation of parts of Georgia."
As an economic body, rather than a military body like NATO or a pointless chattering body like the EU, the G-7 statement implies economic consequences.
