Russia attacked Georgia in a surprise invasion and in the first week of fighting our response was less than forceful as we digested the situation. The Georgians were on their own.
In time, we worked up an outrage over Russia's actions and began to help Georgia (though not intervening militarily, obviously). Luckily for Georgia, Russia failed to take Vienna, so to speak, during that week. So now our help should keep Georgia free.
If China attacks Taiwan with a lightning strike that attempts to overrun Taiwan before we can intervene, I've long worried that we'd need many days just to decide to intervene. If it took us a week just to decide to intervene in Taiwan, it would take even more time to actually intervene.
And perhaps Chinese ground forces would be closing on Taipei by then.
Strategic ambiguity about our intentions can only encourage China to get inside our decision-making loop to present us with a Chinese-occupied Taiwan after two weeks of fighting:
China now seeks the capability to grab Taiwan while holding us at bay long enough to complete the conquest. Strategic ambiguity just means we will waste precious time debating whether to intervene.
So we need strategic clarity to show China that attacking Taiwan means war with America (and Japan). And that clarity will focus our minds on what we need to do should China lunge across the strait with little notice.
Don't give the Chinese a week of fighting an isolated Taiwan. It didn't matter in Georgia because Russia failed to drive on Tbilisi. China won't make that mistake and will attempt to conquer Taiwan rather than just try to intimidate the Taiwanese.
Make sure that we know we will intervene so we won't spend a week dithering, and make sure China knows we will intervene.
End strategic ambiguity.
UPDATE: More thoughts on lessons of Georgia for Taiwan.
