Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Something Will Be Decisive

Israeli ground forces are starting to push into Gaza City:

Israeli troops backed by tanks thrust deeper into the city and sought Hamas fighters in alleyways and cellars. ...

Israeli military officials say that depending on what happens with what they described as "decisive" talks in Cairo, Israel will move closer to a cease-fire or widen its offensive. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing sensitive policy matters.

Asked if Israel's war aims had been achieved, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said: "Most of them, probably not all of them."

Israeli troops now have the coastal city of 400,000 virtually surrounded as part of an offensive launched Dec. 27 to end years of Palestinian rocket attacks on its southern towns.


I get the impression that the Israelis would halt the war if Hamas gives in now and accepts ceasefire terms that would lead to keeping rockets out of Gaza.

But the cost to the Israelis in lives lost has been low enough that Israel is willing to disarm Hamas the hard way if the Palestinians continue to be the stupidest and most self-destructive people on the planet by insisting that they will continue resisting to defend their ability to try to kill Jews with rockets.

Hamas has a dilemma. If they keep fighting, Israel will tear them a new one. And if Hamas agrees to stop fighting, the argument that Hamas was just about to pull out the can of whup ass on the Israelis but for the ceasefire will ring rather hollow.

Regardless, Israelis will remain in the Gaza Strip for weeks either ripping up the terrorist infrastructure or holding the ring until foreign troops (and not UN troops, for God's sake) arrive to supervise the ceasefire.

I wonder how eager Europeans will be to send their troops to Gaza City to save their pals in Hamas?

UPDATE: Is a ceasefire imminent?

Egypt's foreign minister, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, said details on the proposed cease-fire would be kept "under a lid of secrecy" until all parties agreed but said issues included an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, opening crossings into the blockaded territory and some kind of international monitors.

Israel showed no signs of slowing its bruising 19-day-old offensive against Gaza's Hamas rulers, striking some 60 targets. One airstrike hit an overcrowded cemetery, spreading body parts and rotting flesh over a wide area. The army said the airstrike targeted a weapons cache hidden near the graveyard.

Guerrillas in Lebanon sent rockets crashing into northern Israel on Wednesday for the second time in a week, drawing an Israeli artillery barrage and threatening to drag the Jewish state into a second front.

The rocket fire in the north caused no injuries, but sent residents scurrying to bomb shelters. There was no immediate claim of responsibility, and speculation focused on small Palestinian groups. Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed guerrilla group that fought a monthlong war with Israel in 2006, denied involvement in last week's attack.


Hamas friends seem determined to drag Lebanon and possibly their Syrian sponsors into the fight to save Hamas's bacon. And if Syria intervenes, Iranian help might be forthcoming.

But Hezbollah is not eager to join the fight right now. Israel's reputation may have been dented in 2006, but the current round of fighting in Gaza is restoring Israel's military and political reputation for dealing with enemies harshly.

And Israel is wisely not slowing down their offensive while the ceasefire talks continue. This will put pressure on Hamas to really make concessions--concessions that should be fatal to Hamas rule in Gaza. Too many people in the West think that talks must have a ceasefire first, failing to understand that a halt to fighting erases the pressure on the enemy to do more than go through the motions of talking. Or maybe those people in the West understand that fact of life all too well, I suppose.

I don't know what the point of a 10-day ceasefire would be, however. Hamas would love ten days to regroup and prepare to fight more. Why Israel would want a mere 10-day ceasefire is beyond me. Unless the ten days are to get European troops in place and unless Israel gets to move at will to find and destroy tunnels to Gaza, arms depots, and rocket production work shops.