Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Complex Math

Neither Pakistan nor India want a full-blown war between the two over the Mumbai massacre.

That would seem comforting since there is no overlap there between what India will do (Set A) and what Pakistan will do (Set B)

However, India has not ruled out force:

"I say we are keeping all options open," Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee told Times Now television. Only hours earlier Defence Minister A.K. Antony had made similar comments.


This would seem to mean a surgical strike limited to jihadi groups on Pakistani soil.

And the Pakistanis clearly do not differentiate between war and surgical strikes by India:

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi told a news conference in Kabul on Wednesday Pakistan did not want war but every Pakistani would fight back if India attacked.


So India doesn't think air/missile strikes would be "war;" and Pakistan would fight back if "attacked."

Suddenly, Sets A and B have some overlap there.

I know the Gaza War of 2008 is dominating headlines and the Afghanistan Surge is dominating our own military discussions, but I'm way more worried about the lingering crisis over Mumbai.

We need to make sure each side knows that the other isn't preparing their forces for a first strike and show satellite proof of deployments. And we need to make sure each side knows we are providing that information to the other side.

We can't let either side think that they need to strike first because they believe--rightly or wrongly--that their military situation is eroding as the other side prepares for war. And we need to pay far more attention to the Subcontinent than Gaza no matter what European Lefties are more upset about.