Sunday, January 11, 2009

The Gaza [Insert Name Here]

So will this be the Gaza War of 2008-2009 or the Gaza Punitive Raid of '08-'09? That is, is this just a high tech spasm of revenge against Hamas or is it an organized military offensive to achieve an objective that could have long-term benefits?

Israeli forces are pressing toward Gaza City and the Israelis don't think Hamas is broken:


The group "is not expected to raise a white flag," military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin told the Israeli Cabinet Sunday.

The fighting in the Sheikh Ajleen neighborhood erupted before dawn and continued through the morning as Israeli infantrymen and tanks advanced toward Gaza City and its approximately 400,000 residents, Palestinian witnesses said. Hamas and the smaller militant group Islamic Jihad said they ambushed the Israelis, leading to some of the heaviest fighting since Israel sent ground forces into the coastal territory on Jan. 3.

Gunfire subsided in the early afternoon, with the Israelis in control of buildings on the neighborhood's outskirts.


And the Israelis are doing just fine in the ground war despite Hamas boasts that they'd crush Israel if they dared enter Gaza::


The Israeli military says troops have killed some 300 armed fighters since the ground offensive began and that many more were killed in the week of aerial bombardments that preceded it.

Thirteen Israelis have died, three of them civilians.


Remember that of the ten Israeli military casualties, at least 3 were friendly fire if memory serves me. So the Israelis have a 30:1 kill ratio against Hamas. Not bad for a doomed effort.

The Israelis seem prepared to continue the fight:


"Israel is nearing the goals which it set itself, but more patience, determination and effort is still demanded," Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said ahead of his government's weekly meeting Sunday.


With Hamas hurt but not broken, it appears that victory requires the fight to continue.

But will it?


Infantry units backed by tanks pushed deeper into Gaza's main city, sparking some of the fiercest battles yet of the 16-day-old war Israel launched on the Islamists in response to rocket fire from their stronghold.

But Israeli officials suggested the Jewish state was nearing the end of its deadliest ever offensive in the Palestinian enclave, despite having last week waved off a UN Security Council resolution calling for a halt to the fighting.

"The decision of the (UN) security council doesn't give us much leeway," Deputy Defence Minister Matan Vilnai told public radio. "Thus it would seem that we are close to ending the ground operation and ending the operation altogether."


Israel still needs to kill terrorist gunmen and their leaders, wreck workshops, destroy arms depots, and destroy the smuggling network including the personnel and tunnels involved.

Given that Israel will be on the receiving end of a lot of international hatred regardless of whether Israel smashes Hamas or just hurts them and withdraws, as long as the Israelis can bear the cost they should take the opportunity to finish the job.

We shall see what history calls this period of conflict.

UPDATE: Strategypage thinks the Israelis are going in for the kill:


Inside Israel, there is wide support for the war in Gaza, and the Israelis appear determined to stay in Gaza until they have captured or killed all the key Hamas personnel, and destroyed the thousands of rockets Hamas is believed to have stockpiled.


And this report indicates that Israel would accept a ceasefire but only one on their terms, while Hamas rejects a ceasefire still boasting they can smash Israel:


Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stood within Hamas rocket range Monday and warned Islamic militants that they face an "iron fist" unless they agree to Israeli terms for an end to war in the Gaza Strip. Hamas showed no signs of wavering, however, with its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, saying the militants were "closer to victory."


Tough words from both sides. Whose actions will break whom? In 2006, I rarely saw glimmers of hope that Israel might be serious about war. And those flashes faded quickly.

This time, Israel seems serious about winning. Hamas may yet hurt the Israelis, but it will merely be a hard blow in an othewise losing effort in the face of a much better Israeli army offensive.

I'll guess that this will be known as the Gaza War of 2008-2009.