As we send more troops to the end of the world, we could need a whole lot right here in our own continent (tip to Instapundit):
Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.
The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.
The JOE is available here.
I worry a lot about how a collapse of Pakistan or just upheaval would affect our war in Afghanistan.
I worry that we'll need to worry about Mexico.
Well, at least Mexico doesn't have nukes.
UPDATE: Strategypage rightly notes that the JOE is a document not so much about making predictions as it is pointing out potential problems that we should think about just in case:
Mexico is not Pakistan. It is not collapsing. It is not a "near failed state." Mexico is a threatened state, but the country has political will to confront the threats posed by violent drug cartels and its own legacy of corrupt politics. Even accounting for Chiapas (Maya land) and numerous wannabe separatists, Mexico also has money, education, and a comparative political-social coherence the entirety of South and Central Asia should envy.
Meanwhile, there are economic issues. From the Mexican perspective, NAFTA has been a means of "modernizing" the Mexican economy by evolution rather than revolution. The government, albeit slowly, has used NAFTA as a tool for streamlining the economy and reducing corruption. The government is directing a complex war that includes judicial and legal reformation – dead serious counter-corruption drives that have put senior officials in jail. No, bliss is not around the corner, but this is a real path to real change.
If collapse should take place, it would be very bad. But it really isn't likely at this point. But our aid is meant to help Mexico avoid what would be a very bad situation for both of us.
I've probably worried a little too much about Mexican stability than is justified, it seems.
