Friday, January 02, 2009

Shock and Crawl

I've assumed that Israel would launch a ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza. But time keeps passing and the Israelis persist in aerial bombardments. I keep thinking, the Israelis learned from 2006 in southern Lebanon and won't make that mistake. I keep thinking that the Israelis surely have a better grip on the situation than I do sitting in the Midwest.

Then I read this:

Since Tuesday it has become clear that the Olmert-Livni-Barak government has decided to end the war with Iran's Hamas proxy army in Gaza as quickly as possible. That is, the government has decided to lose the war.

Most Israelis are unaware of this state of affairs. In an obvious attempt to bolster the popularity of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak ahead of the February 10 general elections, the local media have spent the six days since the government launched Operation Cast Lead praising the government's competence and wisdom, and declaring victory over Hamas after every IAF sortie in Gaza. ...

On Monday and Tuesday, Turkey, Egypt and the EU all began offering various truce arrangements between Israel and Hamas. On Tuesday, Israel opted to pursue the European track. On Thursday, Livni travelled to Paris to discuss it with French President Nicolas Sarkozy ahead of his trip to the region on Monday.


Good grief, they'll fail on air power alone again? And sanctify it as "victory" with a European-sponsored ceasefire? An EU proposal that accepts various Hamas demands?

Hamas leaders were at maximum stun the day after the first strikes. That's when Israel should have invaded. More air strikes are wasted on an enemy like Hamas which doesn't need to be softened up the way a conventional military needs to be--heck, in 2003 we sent ground forces in before the main aerial bombardment. Now, Hamas has had a chance to cobble together communications and restore their balance. A ground invasion will be more costly now.

Of course, the question of army casualties may be moot if Israel goes the ceasefire route.

Is this really what Israeli leaders want to achieve by resorting to arms? Are they mad?