In Shanghai, China, shipyard employees report that the Chinese Navy has ordered two 60,000 ton aircraft carriers, and preparations are under way to begin construction this year, with completion scheduled for 2015. Fifty Russian Su-33 jet fighters would be imported to serve on the new carriers. Chinese naval aviators would use the former Russian carrier Varyag as a training ship, to learn how to operate the Su-33s off carriers. ...
A year ago, the Russian aircraft carrier Varyag was renamed the Shi Lang (after the Chinese general who took possession of Taiwan in 1681, the first time China ever paid any attention to the island) and given the pennant number 83. The Chinese have been refurbishing the Varyag, one of the Kuznetsov class that Russia began building in the 1980s, for several years now. It is expected to be ready for sea trials any day now.
So China will have a pair of carriers by 2015 and a training carrier perhaps this year to prepare for those carriers. This is taking longer than reports just four years ago made it seem.
I guess my thoughts that China might want the Varyag as a Mobile Offshore Base are wrong, too, it seems.
You may think that this is unimportant. In six years, China will have two smaller carriers (and a third that can be pressed into service as a fighting ship) each less capable than our eleven large carriers--and less capable when you consider training, doctrine, and experience.
But the Chinese don't have to match us in total naval power. Consider that we have but one large carrier forward deployed in Japan, with another base at Guam capable of berthing a carrier. Even if we have two superior carriers forward deployed in the western Pacific, we will face two or three Chinese carriers. Surely, if those PLAN carriers sortie and challenge us, we will defeat them. I have little doubt on that score.
But if the duel between our 7th Fleet and the PLAN is in the context of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, how long will it take to sink the Chinese carriers and clear the air and sea corridors to Taiwan? We already have to overcome Chinese subs pushed in our path. And land-based ballistic missiles for that matter. Will we win the tactical battles at sea even as Taiwan is crushed because we can't risk rushing our forces through the temporary screen that China's expendible carriers provide? Don't be confused, China certainly is not able to overcome our fully deployed military power, but China is making huge gains against Taiwan. All China needs to do is isolate the Taiwan battle area to win.
In the near term, all China has to do is slow us down. Never forget that reality when you weigh the balance of forces between America and China.
