The Winter War of 2022 Returns to Center Stage

After a brief high-tech air campaign against Iran, punctuated by intercontinental American B-2 stealth bomber strikes on Iran's most important and best protected nuclear sites, the world returns to the mud and death of the war that won't leave the party. But you go to blog with the stalemated war you have and not the shiny air war you wish you had.

The 12-Day War (will that stick?) was waged and concluded in the time it takes Russia to organize a motorcycle assault by 9 guys who are pretty sure what the business end of their rifle is. Speaking of low-tech, bloody, stupidity:

In Mad Max fashion, Russia’s primary vehicle of choice has become the motorcycle, or the 21st-century Dragoon. A Russian soldier must drive as fast as possible with no mistakes to avoid getting hit by a drone.

While we gazed at the skies, Russia remained in its same predicament:

Russian forces in Ukraine are stalled and too weak to launch another offensive, even a small one.

It will get worse. The Russian economy is collapsing because of disinvestment. 

I think this is directionally correct but Russia has means to cope. For a while. I have no idea when the slow erosion accelerates and suddenly becomes apparent. Are Russian soldiers really surrendering more often? Big if true. But I'm sure Russia is erecting a Potemkin Village of strength to frighten us into giving Russia a better deal than it can get on the battlefield.

Europeans are standing up to Russia by deciding to rearm NATO and by pledging more military aid to Ukraine. America stands pleased with the increased European defense effort and is no longer discussing distancing itself from NATO and its Article V common defense clause. American surveillance and intelligence continues as does previously committed military aid. I suspect America military aid will continue even if it won't be aid because it is paid for through some mechanism on paper--and maybe in reality.

With Putin's semi-trained organ grinder nuke monkey, Medvedev, waving its nukes about, Russia talks big about its next victims. Which seems like the brochure for the shiny sports car Putin wants even as Russia's cheap imported Chinese motorcycle sits at the curb, ready for glory in Ukraine. 

Yet Russia is ramping up efforts to Russify the Ukrainians in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Is this a parallel effort to the war or a reaction--either pessimistic or optimistic--to the war effort? 

What is happening behind the scenes in the openly and flamboyantly confident Russian military is unknown. 

UPDATE (Monday): Entering stage right, NATO:

Putin’s refusal to negotiate an end to the war (partly because of the fragmentation of NATO) has been replaced by the need to consider what NATO, now including the U.S., will do. With the recent NATO love fest, Putin might be forced into the negotiations Trump wanted. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: Photo from Forbes.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Has Russia's Army Changed Little Since 1945?

In case you missed it on Substack: Little Green Men Don't Threaten Estonia

In case you missed it on Substack: A Non-Kinetic Blockade?

In case you missed it on Substack: New Boss Same As the Old Boss

"France warns of escalation of war with Iran", and reassured everyone that obviously France would not be the one to do so.

Have people been beaten with the green energy clue bat enough to change course? Tip to Instapundit.

Sunday afternoon and already communists were out protesting to protect Iran. Those black-on-yellow signs are signature colors for the ANSWER scum. 

Whenever a top Russian speaks--as they did on America's attack on Iran--I want to drop MOPs on them. But business before pleasure.

We built at least 20 GBU-57 MOPs and used 14 on Iran. One source said the total was 50. So plenty left.

If Iran attacks our forces in CENTCOM in response to Midnight Hammer, we should hammer Revolutionary Guard targets, especially naval assets. The IRGC is a pillar of the regime. 

China is a-hole: "A Chinese flotilla of cutters, warships and maritime militia harassed Philippine government vessels resupplying fishermen at Scarborough Shoal on Friday."

China works to catch up with American UUVs.  

The Army is working to get a prototype for a longer-range M109-52 self-propelled howitzer. The God of War demands an offering. 

Should officer and NCO ranks be merged because experienced NCOs report to inexperienced new officers? Because civilians can't enter the system mid-career? The former has always existed. For the latter, restore the old parallel specialist ranks that survive today in the Army as Specialist/Corporal E-4s?

Arguing withdrawing 4,500 troops from South Korea risks war with North Korea if there is a war with China over Taiwan. Losing South Korea sure ends its power projection role. 

I can't imagine Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz because it shuts down their oil exports, too. And then America and its Gulf allies and allies from farther afield will open the strait while bombing Iran's oil export infrastructure. 

I keep hearing we failed at nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan. I basically reject that we were nation-building. We had to leave a friendly government or what's the point of regime change? Is Somalia anarchy really the objective? But you know what was a failed nation-building attempt? Obama's Iran nuclear deal.

Canada is being strategically stupid out of spite. The EU won't defend Canada. The EU just wants the power to make this deal.

Hmmm: "An Azerbaijani man suspected of espionage had thousands of photographs of a U.S.-Greek military facility on the island of Crete stored on various devices, authorities in Greece say." A similar arrest on Crete of an Iran-linked Azerbainani man was noted.

I suspect talk of the MOP attack on Fordow penetrating air shafts rather than drilling through rock is misinformation to disguise the weapon's capability by pointing to a construction error for the success. Just my speculation, of course. 

Thank goodness Lincoln didn't have to cope with such a law in 1861.

Monitoring sailor health in real time for the ability to perform duties.

Impressive, but I judge on outcomes and not inputs: "Last month the U.S. Navy carrier Truman/CVN-75 carried out the largest series of airstrikes in naval history, using nearly 60 tons of missiles and bombs." Will the Houthi stay down just glancing nervously at the skies? But a crippled Iran sure helps.

At the risk of stating the obvious, yeah, Golden Dome would be a big deal--if it works. 

Sure: "The Army is expecting to take on a larger role in protecting the homeland as the Defense Department develops the Golden Dome missile defense architecture, a service official said recently." Before World War I, coastal defense was a major Army mission.  

LOL: "When and if President Trump addresses the NATO conference that begins in The Hague today, I trust that he’ll announce the withdrawal of the US from the alliance." Because he criticizes it? Oh, please. Face it, America exiting NATO is an EU wet dream. SO THAT HAPPENED: Article V & NATO rearms.

Suspiciously light on who is carrying out the syringe attacks in France. 

Well that's interesting: "U.S. lawmakers want an ammunition production and storage facility at a former American naval base in the Philippines."

U.S. Space Command general discusses Golden Dome. This should help.

To be fair, strength is way down from peak strength in those commands: "any conversation about reducing U.S. troop presence in U.S. Central or European Command appears to be on hold." 

A large Chinese UUV that can carry four torpedoes or eight naval mines. 

Sanctions aren't a silver bullet: "Economic sanctions against Russia are not working, at least in the short term." But they do cause problems that waste Russian resources. And coping isn't thriving.

Unrest in our major non-NATO ally, Kenya. 

It's bigger! It's badder! Ladies and gentlemen, it's too much for Mr. Incredible! 

Restoring the Marine Corps as America's global response force. I had thoughts on that in Joint Force Quarterly in 2000 (pages 38-42).

Unless Australia is content to be a vassal of China, it's leaders had best stop using Trump as the monster under the bed for domestic political advantage and forge a relationship with the American president.

China has an export version of its J-35 stealth fighter. What does China leave out? Or do they just sand the skin and hit it with hammers prior to delivery?

Central Asia is a hotspot for financing and recruiting jihadis worldwide. Is the hidden good news that the Arab world is starting to contain its jihadi problem? 

Ah, that leaked "low confidence" DIA assessment on the American strike on Iran that minimized the effects assumes Iran retains enriched uranium it can process to make some bombs. So the infrastructure is more than set back a few months. Honestly, I worry Iran's backup facilities are in North Korea. 

The Guardian, illustrating their article with ANSWER protesters, says Israel and America can't remake the Middle East with bombs. Sure. But Iran with nuclear bombs sure could destroy the Middle East. Baby steps, people.

It's the only military threat, so ... "NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte assessed that Russia is the largest existential threat to NATO members today and that Russia is preparing for a protracted war with NATO." The EU could take on the non-military migrant threat instead of undermining NATO to push America out.

The Russian army has become a motorcycle gang club.

Big conventional wars are won with factories. A whole lot of truth to that. Although Soviet casualties versus American casualties in World War II demonstrate that there different ways to use what the factories produce.

Possible: "A reporter asked Trump during a press conference at the NATO summit on June 25 whether it is possible that Russian President Vladimir Putin has territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine, and Trump responded that 'it's possible'" As in you can't rule out sanity breaking out in the Kremlin.

Good: "Fort Lee in Virginia will become the first base to be named after a Buffalo Soldier." Really, honoring Pvt. Fitz Lee with the same name as a Confederate general is the ultimate victory dance. 

I had assumed one or two of our SSGNs would have participated on a strike on Iran, and one did.

Marines remain in the Philippines in a serial "rotational" presence. 

Late in the Cold War it was "kill people and break things", if I recall correctly: "At a basic level, America's Air Force exists for [a very simple] capability -- 'to kill people and blow sh-- up[.]'" 

No advantage lasts forever: "The rise of quantum sensing is could someday overcome the advantages of stealth aircraft[.]" 

The Turkish PKK has decided to disarm and disband. Is the 40-year separatist campaign over? 

Better inside the tent pissing out: "North Korea has extended the service obligation for new recruits from eight to ten years for men and from five to seven years for women. This change is imperative because North Korea is running out of military age men." The 2021 reductions are thus partially reversed. 

It took a lot of years of preparation to launch that brief air raid on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities.  

Well that's a take: "Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Israel was "crushed" during the two countries' brief war[.]"  

Fleet counter-drone weapons tests.

Maybe: "While establishing its sphere of influence over Europe will remain Russia’s priority, Russia could go to war to support China in the event of a U.S.-China conflict in the Asia Pacific." Russia can't help and hold off a rearmed NATO. And does Russia want China in the Arctic? Russia might stall its entry.

Ve haf vays of making you shut up. Can you even believe Vance expressed concern? 

Iraq's fragile stability. You can't argue Iraq isn't better than it was before 2003. But America must wage the Phase IX war in Iraq. 

Gotta love that Islamic struggle for personal growth: "More than 200 gunmen on motorbikes have attacked a Niger army base near the border with Mali, leaving at least 34 soldiers dead, the country's defence ministry said." No, really. You have to--under threat of death.

Via Instapundit, did Israel agree to end the Hamas War? It would exile Hamas (and other jihadis?), allow Gazans to emigrate to certain countries, and involve Arab states running Gaza. This is an opportunity if details can be agreed on. 

I'm pretty sure this is from the "Well, Duh" files.

The Air Force F-15EX force will grow from 98 to 129 planes.

Ukraine's Black Sea operations against Russia are shaping American and NATO ideas about naval warfare? I bet! One lesson is that NATO's ISR network has enabled Ukraine to operate against Russia in the Black Sea. Best get one of those, eh?

Break up the Air Force into separate services for "Tactical Air, Space, Strategic and Lift"? Seems a bit ... much. 

U.S. and South Korean troops conducted live-fire exercises 20 miles south of the DMZ. 

Bravo Putin! "Germany will more than double its military spending by the turn of the decade under a new defense spending proposal approved by the government this week." Strategersky. 

The foreign volunteers helping Ukraine fight and cope. But no firm number on volunteers who are fighting. I suspect the world is less significant than North Korea's expeditionary force. 

Iran has spent decades boasting of its power. This year exposed its weakness. Israel's 2024 raids on Iran's air defenses reminds of America using no-fly zone patrols to take out Iraqi air defenses in the months before the March 2003 invasion.

Astroturfing Western separatism from deep in mullah-run Iran. Tip to Instapundit. 

LOL: Israeli and American strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure "may have hardened Iran’s resolve to pursue a nuclear weapon, not abandon it[.]" Iran's mullahs wanted nukes and was willing to wreck Iran to get them. Obama didn't persuade them. But now they really want them? The Stupid is is strong in this one.

I bet the vast majority are innocent: "Iranian authorities have carried out a wave of arrests and multiple executions of people suspected of links to Israeli intelligence agencies, in the wake of the recent war between the two countries."

Is he genuinely seeking close ties with Israel? "The new Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa was previously an Islamic terrorist but was determined to establish a lasting and legitimate government." It hard to believe he isn't pretending to be moderate even as his base murders Christians. I want to be wrong.

I'm certainly willing to consider we did not get everything nuclear related in Iran. I assume we want Iran to give up surviving enriched uranium in talks. But destroying it isn't off the table for America or Israel. Perhaps Iran is trying to find an overseas sanctuary for it.

Armed groups are outside the deal: "Both sides of the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have committed to disarming and disengaging their alleged proxies." But maybe it will help. 

Meanwhile in the Axis of El Vil. 

Reflecting on the Korean War begun 75 years ago. South Korea has come a long way.

No Lots of Blood for Oil Lithium: "Russian forces have taken control of a lithium-rich area near the village of Shevchenko in Ukraine’s Donetsk region[.]"

Russian ammunition depots blow up without needing Ukrainian special forces help. 

Aid: "France is also spending a lot of money to triple their munitions production. This will enable France to send Ukraine more munitions while restoring French munitions reserves depleted to supply Ukraine." Ukraine really likes the French Caesar truck-mounted 155mm artillery system. 

Spanning a water gap: "Military units from four [NATO] countries on Saturday carried out a large crossing of troops and heavy vehicles of the Rhine River in Germany during combined drills." 

The U.S.-China Naval Balance

The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) looks very shiny and is very big. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) clearly values it given the cost of building it. What's its purpose? 

Really interesting article on the naval balance with China:

Xi may come to see the PLAN, the protector of the Communist Party rather than China, as key to the preservation of his status in the Politburo. He may fear the political repercussions of the abrupt sinking of the PLAN, in a manner similar to the Qing Dynasty’s 1895 loss of the Beiyang fleet during the Sino-Japanese War. A PLAN fleet-in-being inadequate to break a U.S. blockade, but expensive and politically salient to Beijing, may ultimately be held hostage by the U.S. and its allies.  

It has a lot of interesting details--especially VLS counts. But the author seems to digress a lot, really, for no useful purpose. 

What most interests to me is that question of whether the CCP need its shiny new navy as a symbol of its power that it cannot risk in a war. Good question, as I note in this data dump:

Potemkin military with Chinese characters? I wouldn't assume the PLA can't fight. But perhaps its main purpose is to be shiny and look like a great achievement of Xi Jinping.

What's the PLAN's function? Does it have a military mission? For all its shiny new ships, China does have a problem using its fleet:

[U.S. Navy Fleet Forces Command Admiral Daryl] Caudle also said a projected increase in China’s fleet comes with challenges, including increased munitions purchases and crew.

“You have to crew all those ships. You have to sustain all those ships. You’ve got to have a place for them to moor” and have housing for the crew, he said. “So it’s not just buying ships.”

If the PLAN function really is sea control, does it have the training and logistics to fight for sea control? But if it is eye candy on Xi's arm, it's good to go. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

India Versus Pakistan

India is stronger than Pakistan. But India wants to pivot to face the more lethal threat, China. Yet Pakistan wants to be the Big Bad, as it is the reason for the military's stranglehold on Pakistan. And China, of course, wants India properly distracted.

This is interesting:

A new policy brief by ASPI, released today, outlines the quantitative military balance between India and Pakistan.

By the numbers, the India-Pakistan military balance is fairly favourable to India. In every year since 1956, India has outspent Pakistan on defence (in real terms) by a factor of at least 4.5—even by a factor of 10 in the most recent budget. India’s armed forces field more personnel than Pakistan’s across the board, most prominently the land forces, which field 1.2 million active-duty soldiers against Pakistan’s 560,000. ... 

India enjoys naval superiority and a larger, though overstretched, air force. Pakistan, while outgunned, has shown tactical resilience. Crucially, India cannot afford to focus solely on its western neighbour.

And both have nukes. Which limits their conventional campaign objectives. India's Cold Start doctrine seems like a variation of the nuclear era "snatch and grab" strategy. Pakistan wages war with Islamist terrorists.

Yet I think the prospect of China directly intervening to help Pakistan is over-stated. Still, India still needs to do something about its overstretched air force. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: Map from The Economist. 

Survive Dispersed, Strike As One

Persistent surveillance allows enemies to strike precisely. This requires friendly dispersal to survive. Dispersed friendly forces need robust communications to mass effects from dispersed forces.

Marine and Air Force F-35s exercising in northern Michigan and Wisconsin demonstrated distributed operations:

The relatively low count of centrally based fighters at Volk Field is certainly a noticeable but understandable trend in training exercises, whereby dispersing forces, assets and command elements across multiple locations has become the standard. As Lt. Col. Cady commented, “The DoD has continued to shift focus to distributed operations, which brings new logistical challenges, communication difficulties, etc.  It is critical to simulate these difficulties so our force can train to solving tactical problems in an environment that more closely replicates combat operations around the world, and especially, in the Pacific theater of operations”. 

Thirty years ago I was looking at using information for massing effort rather than massing physically: 

If we can harness the potential of information dominance, we will allow the Army to exploit its training and equipment advantages to create a fast and agile force whose flexibility and firepower stun an enemy by massing effort against weak points. [emphasis added]

That was an Army-focused essay, but massing air power effects from distributed air assets is part of that way of operating. Ground forces must do the same.

UPDATE: And yes, the American strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is an example of bringing together dispersed assets to focus efforts. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Will AI Make Even the Enemy's Minds Transparent?

In the world of achieving battlefield surprise, I think persistent surveillance can be overcome. And I think AI perception can be overcome.

Computers select targets and predict enemy actions. But would AI really have predicted the Hamas October 7, 2023 murder, rape, and kidnap invasion? 

Central Command began using Project Maven's computer vision systems in real campaigns after Hamas' surprise attack on Israel during October 2023. Israeli intelligence was criticized for not detecting the Hamas operation. Israeli intelligence did detect the Hamas plans, but Hamas devised a deception that persuaded the Israelis that there was no danger. Successful deception and surprise are one of the most effective military techniques if you can make it work. Hamas did make it work.

Project Maven scrutinizes large quantities of video and still photos of a combat zone, or potential combat zone, looking for patterns that identify or indicate the possibility of combat or violence occurring. The AI bases system is trained to detect such possibilities and provide warnings of attacks or unexpected military or militant movements. The October 2023 Hamas surprise attack was the sort of thing Project Maven could have convincingly predicted. More so than the Israeli intelligence analysis that did not indicate any dangerous actions by Hamas. 

As the post notes, surprise is achieved in the mind of the enemy commander. AI can be tricked, too. Probably by another AI. Or human commanders simply won't trust the AI.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the meme.

Certainly a Grave and Gathering Threat

Is China an imminent threat to Taiwan?

Well, one day the threat could be imminent. Perhaps one day soon: 

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth warned that a Chinese military attack on Taiwan “could be imminent” as he called on America’s allies in the Indo-Pacific to boost defence spending as a further deterrence to Beijing. 

China certainly wants Taiwan and is preparing to throw an army across the Taiwan Strait. And I think China will throw that army across with a wide variety of means. 

I'm not prepared to call it an imminent threat. 

But as I wrote in Military Review, and as Forbes noted, victory for China rests on getting ashore in force to stay rather than immediately driving on Taipei to end the war with conquest:

As Brian J. Dunn observed in a seminal assessment for Military Review last year, "To defeat Taiwan and avoid war with America, all China needs to do is get ashore in force and impose a cease-fire prior to significant American intervention." 

So China is closer than we hope. China can take the next steps years later. I mean, Russia has taken several bites out of Ukraine since capturing Crimea in 2014. It still counts as conquest even if not done all at once. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Bumped by the Israel-Iran War of 2025

The news cycle was attracted to the shiny, modern kinetics of an air war between Iran and Israel. Not even FPV drones could keep the attention on the Winter War of 2022 as it plows into its fourth year with the lava flow front lines almost imperceptibly shifting. And when America struck Iran, turn the distraction dial to 11! Yet Iran's new problems in theory should reduce Iranian help for Russia.

Russia can't be happy that Israel is pounding Iran. And watching America jump in with strategic stealth bombers and massive bombs won't make them sleep better at night. Russia is in no position to dispatch additional air defense systems to Iran. And Iran will need to devote its surviving defense production to rebuilding its defensive and offensive systems. Assuming the mullah regime survives domestic discontent given an opportunity to challenge the regime (which I do assume until more than hope is identified).

Yet the Russian invasion of Ukraine goes on despite the focus on Israel and Iran with a guest appearance by American B-2s and their supporting joint ballet--even a Ukrainian blogger is on top of the Middle East fight before addressing Russia's brutal but by-now routine invasion.  

Is this the time when observers should be really looking at the Winter War of 2022 to see if it is changing? Strategypage writes:

Earlier this year, Russian losses in weapons and manpower reached the point where new recruits could not be equipped with uniforms and weapons or given more than a few days training before being sent to the front. There they would get uniforms and equipment taken from dead soldiers. These untrained and ill equipped civilians were useless as soldiers. There were too few Russian officers left to complain and Russian offensive operations have largely disappeared. 

Russia claws forward slowly, despite their own problems and Ukrainian firepower (drones and artillery). Ukraine's frontline is seemingly very thinly manned with few reserves to quickly counter-attack. Thus Russian advances are rarely reversed. Putin believes Russia can keep this up forever if it has to:

Putin articulated a theory of victory during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in June 2024 that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.

Russia's bluster about demanding more of Ukraine and speculating about who in NATO is the next target all seem to me to be part of an information operation to disguise their spreading weakness. 

I keep hoping that Ukraine--two years after their failed 2023 counteroffensive--has rebuilt a strategic reserve by starving the front. I keep hoping that the 2024 Kursk offensive was a test of tactics and units. Yet I've seen nothing to validate my hopes that Ukraine has a plan for more than just hanging on until the Russian army and perhaps rump empire collapses from the strain. 

I've certainly been skeptical that Russia really has a massive juggernaut inside Ukraine. If the Russian war machine really is shaking violently and shedding bolts, could Ukraine exploit that?

But in the meantime, back to the aerial fireworks in the Middle East and revitalized speculation about ways it could broaden. 

UPDATE (Monday): ISW reports a claim:

Russia has 13 divisions and an unspecified number of regiments and brigades (totaling roughly 121,000 troops) in its strategic reserve.

Is that a reserve for the invasion force or a true strategic reserve for the rest of Russia's long frontier? 

If the former will it be sent in penny packets to reinforce the existing gnawing offensive?

And as I suggested in the main body about Russian math, is that force real? Or just a paper force of random bodies not in any way a reserve force? 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing--with some difficulty trying to get past the dangerous image claim. Sheesh.