Monday, March 18, 2024

The Winter War of 2022 Validates Putin's Brilliance

The Russian people have spoken. They are thankful to Putin for sending their men to die in Ukraine. Putin will honor their wishes by sending many more young Russian men  to early deaths in Ukraine. And to further highlight his brilliance, Putin reminds his subjects that he needs early use of nuclear weapons to protect Russia from invasion and destruction. But God help us, we might enable a Russian conventional victory.

Fresh off of his glorious victory at Avdiivka, Putin collects his reward of reelection from a grateful population:

A preliminary statement from Russia’s Central Election Commission said Putin received about 87 percent of the votes, deeming him the winner of the election, according to multiple media outlets. The commission also reportedly said voter turnout was about 75 percent nationwide.

It is frustrating that America is risking handing Russia a victory in Ukraine:

Ukrainian shortages of ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in the provision of US military assistance may be making the current Ukrainian front line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors would indicate.

And Russia has formed reserve forces it could send to the front to exploit the possible fragility of Ukraine's front line forces. 

You have to give the Russian leaders credit, no matter what they don't get all confused about their objective:

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev posted a detailed call for the total elimination of the Ukrainian state and its absorption into the Russian Federation under what he euphemistically called a “peace formula.”

God help us, but Westerners try to split the difference with Russia's extreme position to get "peace".

Still, I'm not sure who does Putin's polling and messaging work. Did they think this through?

President Vladimir Putin, speaking two days before the start of an election he is expected to easily win, has issued his latest of many warnings that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty is threatened, saying he hopes Washington will not do anything to trigger such a conflict.

I mean, Putin thinks that even he can't throw enough Russian bodies in the path of an invader to stop them without using nukes? So explain to me again the point of a territorial buffer if Russia's conventional military can't make use of it?

Oh, never mind. Putin is on a bare-chested, tiger-riding roll!

Still, it's good to know. Especially if Putin announces a post-election new mobilization of fresh bodies to send to the front. Maybe Russians will wonder what the point of their death is when Russia has nukes.

The way Putin flashes and waves around his nukes, I'd start to wonder if any of them work

Well, Putin will always have the bodies. Right? Nobody in Russia would ever be paranoid enough to see Putin's record as proof Putin is deliberately trying to destroy Russia! Right?

UPDATE: Not quite a mirror image:

Ukrainian forces facing a lack of munitions and manpower are digging in to resist Russian attack, mirroring the invaders' strategy and showing Kyiv expects a drawn-out war.

The Russians had lots of artillery ammunition to pound the Ukrainian attackers last year. Ukraine is hoping fortifications will make up for lack of artillery ammunition.

UPDATE: Ukraine expands its effort to escape Russia's ground offensive clench by expanding strategic warfare against Russia:

The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU), Special Forces (SOF), and Unmanned Systems Forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai on the night of March 16 to 17.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Weekend Data Dump

So apparently, The New York Times best seller list is professional wrestling for college grads. Tip to Instapundit.

Citizens of Hartford, CT are starting armed civilian patrols to battle crime. "The mayor added that the city did not need people being trained to walk the streets with guns and trying to take the law into their own hands." Apparently the city needs exactly that. Tip to Instapundit.

If based on the public AI available, I'm shocked it doesn't always conclude America is a war criminal: "Project Maven scrutinizes large quantities of video and still photos of a combat zone, or potential combat zone, looking for patterns that identify or indicate the possibility of combat or violence occurring."

In space, nobody can hear you speak Russian

I've often observed that I'm not shocked when our leaders break the law. I'm shocked at what is legal: "Something short of the law should restrain their greed. Call it shame, stigma, patriotism, or even self-discipline. Call it common morality." Justifiable loss of confidence in our senior military leadership, eh?

Somalia West: "The U.S. military said Sunday that it had flown in forces to beef up security at the U.S. Embassy in Haiti and allow nonessential personnel to leave."

I see Britain is aspiring to Kuznetsov-levels of humiliation: "The UK's $3.7 billion flagship aircraft carrier caught fire in yet another embarrassment for the Royal Navy." I had assumed an enemy would need to do something to harm Britain's one-hit fleet

Explain to me again how Trump is unwilling to confront Russia. There is a lot of left-wing panic going on here and in Europe that relies on forgetting Trump's record when he was president.

But I'm continually told Biden doesn't need media fact checkers. Always check the Definitions Section, I say. Tip to Instapundit.

How long has MSNBC had this tech? "Hundreds of AI-powered sites mimicking news outlets have cropped up in recent months, fueling an explosion of false narratives -- about everything from war to politicians ...". Rest assured, TDR remains author-generated. Tip to Instapundit.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "A year after restoring diplomatic ties, Saudi Arabia and Iran still experience tensions. [There are no] significant agreements due to ongoing regional conflicts and deep-seated distrust, especially concerning their allies and the situations in Yemen and Lebanon." Restoring ties was a warning.

Ah, experts: "The top U.S. intelligence official on Monday warned that the war in Gaza could embolden terrorist groups, which are aligned in their opposition to the United States for its support of Israel." Why don't our enemies worry about pissing us off? We're always advised to "let the Wookie win."

Logistics: "Despite large orders from Russia for weapons to use against Ukrainians, shortages of raw materials and electrical power have left some North Korean arms factories only able to produce 30 percent of their full capacity."

The F-22 will be retired by 2030

Why do Democrats hate America so much? "FBI Director Confirms Prison Gangs and Islamic Terrorists Are Exploiting the Border[.]" To be clear, that means the lack of a border for all practical purposes. Tip to the Morning Briefing.

This follows France's suggestion that everybody put their missile-launch keys in a bowl and randomly see whose missiles go where: "Britain has offered Germany a swap of cruise missiles that could allow the German government a way to overcome concerns over a suggested delivery of missiles to Ukraine[.] 

At some level this method of "finding" money bothers me: "National security adviser Jake Sullivan said the U.S. will use a surprise $300 million in savings it found while buying supplies for Kyiv." But if legal, good.

Mowing the jihadi grass: "The U.S. military said Tuesday it conducted an airstrike in southern Somalia that killed three al-Shabab militants."

Building a pier for Hamas is just the start of the Smart Diplomacy® shift to punish Israel: "Congressional action to block U.S. arms sales to Israel is 'certainly something that’s on the table' if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launches a large-scale invasion of Rafah, a top senator said Tuesday."

LCS without the crew? Large Unmanned Surface Vehicles: "1,500-ton vessels that are about a hundred meters long and cruise at 48 kilometers an hour for up to 6.500 kilometers. Up to four shipping containers carrying weapons can be carried. Missiles can be transported and fired from standard shipping containers."

In basic training I remember our company yelling out "Duty, honor, country, freedom!" to end our day of training. Old mottoes never die. But they can be allowed to fade away. In this day and age, obscuring the motto is a symptom of the disease. Tip to Instapundit.

Ominous: "The Kremlin continues to assert its right, contrary to international law, to enforce Russian federal law on officials of NATO members and former Soviet states for actions taken within the territory of their own countries where Russian courts have no jurisdiction[.]" Distance from Russia is your friend.

China tells foreign companies to invest their money in China, ignore China's problems, and absolutely keep your mouths shut.

According to our media fact checkers, the buck absolutely does not stop here, in the White House, when it comes to mass illegal immigration. To be fair, Biden is a confused old man who may not understand what has been done in his name. Tip to Instapundit.

Well of course Russia would need to use nukes to stop a Chinese invasion. I've been droning on for decades about that threat that Russia bizarrely ignores to pretend NATO is the threat.

If America can't protect freedom of navigation from the Houthi and their Iranian sponsors, what hope do we have in the face of a major power's anti-ship capabilities? We refuse to seriously attack the Houthi. Why?

Our best and brightest thought lack of diversity, inclusion, and equity was Haiti's most pressing problem.

I saw some news that claimed Israel's war on Hamas is the reason jihadis will kill Westerners. Just stop. The Iraq War liberation of Iraqis radicalized Moslems who absolutely loved America before 2003. Face it, we know anything at all, big or small, sets off the Easily Excitable. Let's kill the jihadis before they kill us.

A LAW by any other name: "In terms of size, LSM is expected to be 400-feet long, have a beam of 55 feet, displace 2,522 long tons and have a 12-foot draft. Marine Corps leadership has previously stated the service will need at least 35 ships[.]"

The Army currently rotates two armored brigades through Europe to counter Russia, but should permanently deploy one again. Remember when we cancelled the insurance policy?

Oh? "An influential group of former military and political leaders are calling for the U.S. to ratify the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, in an effort to spur the country’s interest in deep-sea mining[.]" To Hell with their advice. Our Navy--not a flawed treaty China ignores--secures our rights.

The Army is refocusing on INDOPACOM logistics. The Army got overly focused on Northeast Asia. You have to crawl before you can run.

Good to know: "When it comes to Army Prepositioned Stocks (APS), for example, the list currently includes APS-1 designated for the US, APS-2 for Europe, the ocean-roaming APS-3 afloat, APS-4 for Northeast Asia, APS-5 for Southwest Asia, APS-6 for Army South and APS-7 for Army Africa."

Law professors overwhelmingly donate to Democrats. I'm sure conservatives are in the clear minority. But I'd bet conservatives are far more likely to avoid making political contributions to avoid a hostile work environment. Which is a worse form of bias, to be sure. Tip to Instapundit.

Danger: "the AP reported that the Houthis slashed four (not three, as the headline suggested) undersea data center cables buried in the depth of the Red Sea. If true, then the Houthis have just found 'the cloud' and realized how much disruption damaging these cables can cause to the global economy[.] Indeed.

The death of Karl Marx really should be a celebration. I mean, I'd go just to make sure he's really dead. Tip to Instapundit. As I've observed:

 

LOL! "The U.S. military has prepared its naval station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, for a possible influx of Haitian migrant[.]" Democrats have spent two decades saying Gitmo is too cruel to keep jihadis there.

The U.S. military has prepared its naval station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, for a possible influx of Haitian migrants even as gang violence in the country has subsided in recent days, a top operational commander said Thursday.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/americas/2024-03-14/haiti-marines-southcom-guantanamo-bay%C2%A0-13318964.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d
Source - Stars and Stripes
The U.S. military has prepared its naval station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, for a possible influx of Haitian migrants even as gang violence in the country has subsided in recent days, a top operational commander said Thursday.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/americas/2024-03-14/haiti-marines-southcom-guantanamo-bay%C2%A0-13318964.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d
Source - Stars and Stripes

I raised this notion: "Johnson told senators that the House will send a Ukraine aid package to the Senate but floated the idea of making it a loan or lend-lease program so U.S. taxpayers would not be shelling out tens of billions of dollars without any expectation of getting a return[.]" Although the return is clear.

EU sanctions on Russia are leaking militarily useful items.

Ef-Up Fairy: "The original withdrawal plan was for a thousand or more U.S. and NATO troops to remain to advise and train [Afghan] security forces and monitor the corruption. ... The Americans got a new government in early 2021 and that led to fatal changes to the withdrawal plan." Our allies felt abandoned.

Well sure, Putin has more territorial ambitions.

LOL: "At the previously unreported meeting, [Hezbollah's] Nasrallah reassured [Iranian terror leader] Qaani he didn't want Iran to get sucked into a war with Israel or the United States and that Hezbollah would fight on its own, all the sources said." Hezbollah told Iran not to help them?

North Korea counted on a Kooks, Spooks, and Nukes strategy. The nukes aren't reliable. But saving money on conventional arms "worked": "About half the artillery shells purchased [by Russia] were duds. That was because of sloppy manufacturing practices." 

Ukraine's drone branch. Also, Russia has knocked out three Abrams tanks: "The M1’s had not been equipped with enough overhead screens or proper electronic defense systems that the Ukrainians use on their tanks and other armored vehicles." I wondered why there was no overhead screen. I still wonder.

We should not assume we can keep swatting down the Houthi's Iran-supplied anti-ship weapons. We should be relentlessly hunting and destroying Houthi assets--including Iranian targeting assets--not just "retaliating" for Houthi strikes. We're just guaranteeing video of a burning American destroyer.

So who was flying drones around Langley Air Force Base? One day somebody will knock down our planes.

Own goal: "Ukrainian and Western officials are increasingly warning about both significant Ukrainian materiel shortages and a new large-scale Russian offensive this summer." I'll ask again, why is Biden dooming Ukraine in order to keep our southern border open to mass illegal immigration?

Tanks.

Will Ukraine be able to protect two new corvettes from Russian air and missile power?

Yeah: "Back when the federal government was much smaller, say in the 1940s, 1950s, and even the 1960s, there was less call to influence it, and so the opportunities for people to earn big salaries by moving from administrating to lobbying were much less.  But that changed." The federal government is too damn big.

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Defeating an Enemy Imposes the Ultimate Cost

Porcupines are still prey despite their quills.

Sure, NATO needs more than just meeting its 2% defense goal to defeat Russia. But I reject this:

The role of technology in the Ukraine war must be integrated, from the use of drones and Starlink satellite internet for communications to dazzlingly shortened timeframes to field new types of weapons. All this should be incorporated in a “porcupine defense” that would raise the costs of any Russian attack on NATO to make it unacceptable.  

Oh, not the tech integration. There's no cheap silver bullet for victory. But sure, tech integration helps. 

The problem is the "porcupine defense" twists the concept of combined arms into a magical formula that pretends we can use cheap "asymmetric" weapons to make the price of conquest so high for an aggressor that it won't attack

I do believe that the Russian invasion of Ukraine shows we have no idea how much an enemy will sacrifice to get its objective. I certainly had no idea.

The problem is that if the enemy decides it will pay the price, the porcupine is in no condition to push the lion--or bear--out.

And if the theater is the NATO Baltic states that were former Soviet republics, the porcupine might be trapped in a kill sack for later, leisurely consumption.

Clever ways to win on the cheap will fail. Let's focus on building up NATO militaries that can fight the Russians until we defeat and drive back their military in battle to win any war Russia starts.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Friday, March 15, 2024

Building Blocks for Time of Troubles 2.0

The defeat of Prigozhin's Wagner revolt wasn't the end of Russia's mercenary problem. It was the beginning. 

Russia's patchwork of mercenary forces seems like a bad idea to me. It's an interesting read and I'll pull out the executive summary bullet points I think are most important for this post:

  • PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine and in projecting power abroad—most prominently in Africa.
  • Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group’s aborted mutiny created a power vacuum that is now being filled by PMCs subordinated to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other locally based formations.
  • Russia’s mercenary industry is comprised primarily of siloviki-affiliated groups and formations, so-called “governors’ armies,” as well as semi-private mercenary formations owned by oligarchs and state corporations.
  • The MoD has relied on various mercenary formations and PMCs at different times in Ukraine, blurring the lines between private groups and government-subordinated entities.
  • Except for Wagner, Russian PMCs have achieved marginal success in Ukraine and have upset some Kremlin officials.
  • The emergence of new PMCs and paramilitary formations will inevitably result in the further paramilitarization of Russian society and the general spread of violence.
  • The growth of these structures may soon threaten the Putin regime’s hold on power, especially if Russian forces continue to trade heavy losses for minimal gains on the Ukrainian battlefield.
  • The widespread “privatization of force” is causing the Kremlin to lose its monopoly over the use of force, which may trigger the Russian state’s eventual rupture.

But in the short run, it buys time for Putin to avoid stressing Russian society by enacting a broad mobilization of civilians to continue the high-casualty model of waging war.

I was skeptical of Russia's resort to mercenaries on a large scale even before Prigozhin's Wagner revolt.

Recall Russia's "Time of Troubles":

It was a period of deep social crisis and lawlessness following the death of Feodor I, a weak and possibly intellectually disabled ruler who died without an heir. His death ended the Rurik dynasty, leading to a violent succession crisis with numerous usurpers and false Dmitrys (imposters) claiming the title of tsar.[2] Russia experienced the famine of 1601–03, which killed almost a third of the population, within three years of Feodor's death. Russia was occupied by the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth during the Polish–Russian War (also known as the Dimitriads) until it was expelled in 1612. It was one of the most turbulent and violent periods in Russian history. In just 15 years, the crown changed hands six times. Estimates of total deaths caused by the conflict range from 1 to 1.2 million, while some areas of Russia experienced population declines of over 50 percent.

Putin screwed up most fundamentally by needlessly stoking conflict with the West.

That led Russia to invade Ukraine in order to get a buffer for a non-existent threat from a weak but increasingly worried Europe. Invading Ukraine exposed the Potemkin Village nature of Putin's vaunted Red legions.

And now Putin tries to cope with his military problem with mercenaries--diffused across Russia to prevent a single rival from having the power to repeat the Wagner revolt. Which includes across the Russian government. But that "solution" to the problem of giving private entities and government ministries their own armed forces may just make sure that the chaos of mercenary forces persists for a long time once the rupture takes place.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Smart Diplomacy® is the Participation Ribbon of Foreign Policy

Leftists like to say it takes two sides to wage war. Which if true means one side (always America or our allies) can choose to make peace unilaterally. That is folly. But in one sense the leftists are correct. If only one side wages war, peace will certainly come. But the "peace" will be on the terms of the side that actually wages war. The left works hard to make sure we aren't that side. I suppose that succinctly defines Smart Diplomacy.®

Too often our folly is believing peace flows from "ending" the fighting to befriend our enemy. That lets the bad guys win. See also the Taliban in Afghanistan.

That is how we got today's Russia. Russia's nukes made it impossible to do more. But that's the underlying origin.

This is correct (via Instapundit):

War is an ugly, brutal, and savage thing. It is also an eternal part of the human condition. Wars are best not started, as horror comes with it.

A just, compassionate nation will always ensure that it is strong and ready for war because war will surely come. Someone will win that war. It can be the just and compassionate nation, or it can be the aggressive and brutal nation. For a just nation to win, it must be prepared to be more aggressive and in a fashion, as brutal - in context and constraints - than its enemy.

The future is not granted, it is won and maintained through the successful execution of warfare.

I disagree a bit if the implication taken by readers (and the author clearly doesn't intend to convey that take) is that America must be as brutal and cruel as our enemies. 

The Israeli war against Hamas shows this is not true. It is not true because leftists who side with Hamas pretend that the scale of Gazan losses in lives and infrastructure proves Israel is committing war crimes rather than trying to win the war without pretending a premature ceasefire is peace. 

The real standard of whether the good guys are fighting the war "cleanly" is the actual standard of proportionality rather than the pretend standard that argues Israel is doing "too much" with its aggressive and "in a fashion," brutal war on the perpetrators of the October 7, 2023 slaughter-rape-and-kidnapping raid compared to what Hamas is capable of doing. The rules of war do not make aggressive and brutal--in context and constraints--illegal.

Of course, my initial thoughts linked are really about the post-war rather than Commander Salamander's subsequent war advice. The Biden administration push for a ceasefire and talking about a Palestinian state before Israel even wins the war shows the urge to reward and befriend a brutal enemy is strong within the Biden administration from war to post-war. That is full-spectrum folly. Sadly, it only takes one side to lose a war. God help us, but our leaders want us to be that side.

If you want peace, you need someone to win. Make sure the good guys are the victor. In the war and in the post-war. A Participation Ribbon is not good enough.

UPDATE: We're too effing stupid not to lose, aren't we?

The Biden administration on Wednesday quietly issued yet another sanctions waiver to Iran, giving the terrorist regime access to as much as $10 billion in frozen assets.

It just doesn't stop. Why do the Biden administration's Obama alumni looove mullah-run Iran so much?

I mean, why did Iran bother infiltrating our Iran policy machinery

UPDATE: Qatar offered to expel Hamas after the Hamas October 7th rape and murder invasion. Our State Department said, "no thank you." Tip to Instapundit.

UPDATE: America sent a delegation to Niger. A week later Niger ordered our troops out. So our major anti-terrorism base will be out of action. And also:

American officials also voiced alarm in the meetings about several other issues, including whether Niger’s military government was nearing a deal to give Iran access to Niger’s vast uranium reserves, a concern that was reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal.

We give Iran lots of money, hoping Iran won't do bad things with it; and then try to tell other countries not to accept that money for bad things.

Restoring our reputation abroad® with Smart Diplomacy® is fun!

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Are Armed Helicopters Worth the Effort?

Should the Army transition away from armed helicopters over the battlefield?

Optimist that I am, I'm happy the Army program to develop a scout helicopter was only a $11 billion waste of effort

The U.S. Army has spent more than $11 billion on failed attempts to develop a new scout helicopter. The scout helicopter was meant to find targets for the larger and heavily armed AH-64 helicopter. Apparently, no one involved with this research and development effort bothered to find out how other branches of the U.S. military as well as foreign armed forces were dealing with this problem. Even though the U.S. Army has established a system (CALL) to document past failures and successes and that this CALL system was easily available, commanders and staff personnel often did not use it as they made mistakes that CALL had documented and warned about not repeating. ...

Because of the Ukraine War CALL now has a lot of useful advice on the use and abuse of UAVs.

What is the fate of attack helicopters in the face of air defense systems

In Ukraine, using long-range missiles that exceed the range of infantry air defense weapons, Russian helicopters were effective when firing from behind friendly lines. I've read that both sides will fly low to evade air defenses and then tilt up to loft unguided rockets like an expensive--if mobile--multiple rocket launcher with dumb warheads. But if either had effective fighter aircraft high above with  the ability to target helicopters in the ground clutter, would even those tactics fail?

I've wondered about this issue ever since the Iraq War when a massed AH-64 deep strike went awry when coordination with artillery broke down. Instead of suppressing enemy air defenses, the artillery alerted the Iraqis who then peppered the American helicopters as they struck deep. I was doubtful but prepared to listen to Army judgment. I guess the Army judged the aircraft isn't worth additional efforts to make it work. Maybe the Army paid attention to Japan's decision to switch from helicopters to drones (UAVs), which I noted in that post above about the fate of attack helicopters.

Yes, that 2003 strike was a failure of tactical execution. But even if modern conditions don't preclude a good strike, I wonder if they are worth the effort given alternatives. The Army is adapting to Air Force lack of interest in close air support that will lose hard-learned capabilities. The Army would like its own long-range fires

And with accurate ground-based fire more possible out to longer ranges, will the Army ghost armed helicopters that were once the only option allowed to it? Did the Army love the one it was with because it couldn't be with the one it loved?

It would be interesting to see what the Army chose to produce for fire support if it had the authority over everything providing fire support for troops over the battlefield.

Perhaps the Army needs to accept the lesson that without stand-off capabilities, expensive air capabilities are a waste over a modern battlefield--even when they work--if you can instead use ground-based fires--including armed drones controlled from the ground.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Stunning and Shredding the Enemy

Was lack of air power the reason Ukraine's 2023 Big Counteroffensive failed? 

There are lots of reasons why the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive failed. Too few Ukrainian troops. Too little Western equipment, meaning Ukraine's new units couldn't afford to take losses. Too little training. Lack of command and control capacity. The end of tank dominance. The revival of Russian morale. Drones. Russian mobilization. Russian minefields. Russian fortifications in depth. Russian artillery with ample ammunition. And of course, lack of Ukrainian close air support?

Is this why Ukraine failed?

Ukraine's summer 2023 counteroffensive sputtered. Why? As a tank officer, I blame lack of close air support by manned aircraft providing flexible close air support (CAS). CAS was vital to German blitzkrieg; it is integral to U.S./NATO AirLand Battle. Newer buzzwords exist, but basically, flyboys bomb them and stun them, and then tanks and armored infantry bust the gaps as artillery and air shred them.

I don't know about that. One, why didn't our advice after wargaming the counteroffensive warn the Ukrainians to hold off? Obviously we thought the counteroffensive could work without CAS since we did not think providing air power to Ukraine was that important compared to other capabilities.

I think blaming the lack of close air support confuses means and results. The key was stunning the enemy and then shredding them with firepower so mechanized forces can bust the gaps.

Of course, despite a renewed bout of "tanks are obsolete" talk over the last two years, something needs the mobility, firepower, and protection to bust the gaps.

But I digress.

The German blitzkrieg needed air power to mass accurate firepower that far forward. Really, the Stuka dive bomber was the first precision weapon, no?

And we've used air power because we've had air supremacy ever since 1944 on every battlefield we've fought on. After the Cold War, we cut lots of our artillery units, making our troops even more reliant on air power.

My view is that the type of firepower used to stun or shred is--and should be--irrelevant to the troops in contact.

We think stealth means that 5th generation aircraft can continue to be the means of stunning the enemy. The Russians don't think that way. They don't have stealth aircraft.

I have no doubt that air power can stun and can aid in shredding. Because we've had a near-monopoly on that capability since 1944. But with ground-based fires extending their reach, I don't think air power is the sole means. Let's focus on the stunning and shredding without deciding ahead of time what can do those jobs.

UPDATE: It is interesting that Russia is turning to air power to bombard Ukrainian troops recently, despite plane losses:

Russia’s air force has dramatically boosted its effectiveness in the Ukraine war with its increased use of “glide bombs,” contributing to Moscow’s recent battlefield successes, according to Western experts.

Why? For some time it seemed like Russia was preserving its air force for emergencies. Which would included a Chinese attack on Russia.

But now Russia is routinely using air power and Ukraine is making Russia pay a price.  

UPDATE: The Army has cancelled its 58-caliber Extended Range Cannon Artillery project:

The problems with the cannon were mostly related to the length of the gun tube and its ability to withstand a large number of projectiles without excessive wear to the gun tube.

The need remains.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Monday, March 11, 2024

The Winter War of 2022 Overreaches

Putin demands more from the war he started as a special military operation. More results. And more blood.

I've long said that a "peace" in the war would just be an opportunity for Russia to reload. The Russians don't want Ukraine to take the same opportunity in Russia's version of "peace":

Reported details of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations that occurred in Istanbul in April 2022 indicate that Russia has consistently envisioned a settlement for its illegal invasion of Ukraine wherein Ukraine would be unable to defend itself from a future Russian attack – an objective Russia continues to pursue under calls for Ukraine’s “demilitarization.”

I guess Russia isn't as confident in its larger population and economy as Western observers can be when they urge "peace" in Ukraine.

Despite its heavy losses, Russia now wants more in its false peace (back to the initial ISW report):

Russian authorities suggested that the Kremlin has likely adopted a more extensive set of goals regarding Ukraine over the course of Russia's war against Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov responded to the leaked April 2022 draft agreement between Russia and Ukraine, claiming that the draft agreement is “no longer relevant” and that “conditions have changed.”

And as I observed very early in the war when Russia shifted from multiple victory parades through Ukraine to a narrow firepower assault in the east:

Would Putin take the opportunity of taking all of Luhansk province to declare victory and hope Ukraine agrees to end the war? It's possible. But sometimes unexpectedly high casualties require more than a small gain to justify the losses. Until the losses get even higher and people will accept any defeat to stop the losses. Does that escalation logic apply to Putin's Russia?

That's quite the treadmill Putin has gotten on. Higher losses pushed Putin to demand more to justify the casualties. Which requires even more casualties. Lather, rinse, repeat, ...

... Revolt? Something more substantial and successful than the Hot Dog Revolt?

Ukraine's resistance is pushing Russia's losses so high that at some point nothing can possibly be worth it to the Russian people, its military, or just its elites who surround and sustain Putin. 

Let's make the cost too high for somebody in Russia to accept. When Russia invaded I wanted Russian body bags flowing back to Russia. As I've long urged

Oh, are my words too crude for a bloody war that Putin started? This is the reality that Putin created. Ef him. And if Russians are willing to sacrifice their sons on the altar of Putin's glory to get the honorific "the Great" in Russian history books, so be it. I have a limit measured by the volume of body bags of Putin's victims for how long I can feel sorry for the Russian people.

We can reopen that issue when Russia's army turns around and leaves Ukraine.

Remember that arming Ukraine was once a Trump idea and the media obscured why that was needed. Conservatives shouldn't go wobbly on this issue now.

UPDATE (Monday): For a leader who is confident that time is on Russia's side, Putin doesn't act like it:

The Kremlin on Monday said that a call by Pope Francis for talks to end the Ukraine war was quite understandable and that Russia was ready to sit down, but that Kyiv had ruled out talks due to its mistaken view that the West could defeat Russia.

UPDATE (Tuesday): This does not allow Russia to build up a decisive reserve force:

ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command’s use of ongoing force structure changes to rush newly created and understrength formations into combat in Ukraine will likely constrain the immediate efficacy of these units on the battlefield but is enough to maintain the current pace of operations.

On the other hand, rushing them into combat doesn't grant Ukraine time to prepare, as Ukraine provided Russia between Russia's autumn 2022 nadir and the summer 2023 counteroffensive.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.