Friday, February 24, 2017

Why is ISIL Fighting So Hard Now?

The Mosul battle has been pretty hard for the Iraqis to complete. But they are winning and they are going slow to minimize friendly and civilian casualties as much as possible. That is admirable. But why is ISIL fighting so hard now?

One thing that made the battle harder is that ISIL is fighting hard, according to retired Army General Jack Keane:

Well it largely depended on ISIS. ISIS did not defend in place in Ramadi and Fallujah. They put up initial resistance, withdrew their command-and-control unit, and then eventually withdrew the main body of their forces. In Mosul, ISIS command and control is still in place, and the main body of ISIS fighters is defending in place. That, in of itself, has made the battle significantly harder. Specifically, ISIS has also used human shields to their advantage in order to disarm the American air power advantage, and they’ve done that very successfully.

I had noticed that ISIL wasn't fighting to the death in their fights for cities as early as the battle for Ramadi (and for Sinjar just before that) more than a year ago.

Which led me to wonder if the jihadis had the morale to fight for their caliphate in Iraq.

And in military briefings, there was discussion of faltering jihadi morale.

The fight did not in fact begin sooner than everyone expected and it has not moved faster than everyone expected. I was wrong in thinking that the offensive would begin sooner and go faster than the general consensus.

The jihadis are in fact fighting and dying to hold Mosul. But why?

Was jihadi morale sound all along, but the jihadis pulled back from their conquests to buy time and preserve resources for the Mosul battle?

If so, why were there reports of ISIL commanders executing their fighters who deserted rather than fight to the death? It certainly didn't sound like the lack of resistance was due to the big picture plan.

Or did the slow pace of getting on with the Mosul offensive allow ISIL to rebuild shaky morale? That is, did the delay in launching the offensive allow ISIL to rebuild their morale, which has led to the slow speed in completing the offensive?

I don't know.

Another difference is that in the past the Iraqis left an avenue of retreat open so the jihadis could flee. Now the Iraqis are more committed to isolating the defenders inside Mosul. Perhaps this has been effective in eliminating the option to withdraw.

I'll just say right now that if the jihadis are willing to die in place to fight for Mosul, we should help them die there and now.

And do read all of the interview.

And here's a Stratfor piece on the coming battle. Which is good.

My comment on their analysis is that while the harsh treatment of Sunni residents in the region by Iraqi Shia-dominated security forces opened the door to the ISIL sweep through northern Iraq in mid-2014, that harshness did not cause the defeat of the Iraqi forces trying to hold Mosul.

Our departure in 2011 gave the Shia-dominated government the freedom to let corruption erode the security forces by decimating the leadership by replacing trained soldiers with politically loyal leaders who lost the confidence of their troops. Good troops could have withstood the ISIL and local Sunni uprising without collapsing. The Iraqis would have lost ground, but not suffered such a complete defeat.

Anyway, I just don't know if the ISIL defenders will continue to fight as hard as they did for the east.

Size Doesn't Matter

You certainly can't miss something like a carrier sailing near you, and it certainly sends a signal of power and interest. But is it a freedom of navigation operation?

The Carl Vinson carrier strike group entered the South China Sea to conduct operations:
A U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is patrolling in the South China Sea, the U.S. Navy said Saturday, days after Beijing told Washington not to challenge its sovereignty in the region.

China asserts ownership of almost all of the resource-rich waters despite rival claims from several Southeast Asian countries. It has rapidly built reefs into artificial islands capable of hosting military planes.

The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier group was engaging in "routine operations in the South China Sea," the navy said in a statement on its website.

You can't miss something that big. But the issue is what the battle group is doing while there.

It is good that the group carried out "routine operations." That makes it a true FONOP, if I am interpreting that statement correctly to include operations uniquely routine to warships. That defies Chinese assertions that the South China Sea as a whole is Chinese territorial water.

But have any of the ships of the group carried out routine operations within 12 nautical miles of Chinese artificial islands to demonstrate that their construction on these mere features do not convert them into islands with claims on surrounding waters?

Any yes, while China's aggression is understandable in some sense from their point of view, that doesn't mean that we or the victims of that urge to expand for purposes of defense have to accept that desire.

These WEGs are Either Stupid or Think We are Stupid

So shipping blankets, bottled water, and NGOs to Russia will prevent the Russians from invading a NATO state? Is that what I'm to believe?

These Euro elites can't really be this stupid, can they?

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Thursday that Europe must not cave in to U.S demands to raise military spending, arguing that development and humanitarian aid could also count as security.

Fascinating. Those people really think that way, don't they?

It seems like just a couple of weeks ago that I was blogging that the Europeans wanted to increase their defense capabilities--and it didn't include development and humanitarian aid.

Of course that goal was aimed at weakening NATO--the real source of defense for Europe that Mattis wants strengthened--and strengthening the proto-imperial European Union project.

Pray tell, just how does Juncker count our Navy when it swoops in to lead a humanitarian rescue effort after some catastrophic natural disaster?

Say, given that migrants soak up social spending when they reach Europe, why not count European development and humanitarian aid that prevents economic migrants from reaching Europe as domestic social welfare spending? That makes far more sense to me.

Worthy European Gentlemen, wegs, for sure

Thursday, February 23, 2017

Inside Out

Iraqi forces are battling for the airport and a base south on Mosul. Securing this objective and screening it from fire from inside Mosul would allow it to be used as a staging base for an overland and airmobile assault into Mosul.

The battle is getting close to the urban area itself:

Iraqi forces backed by the U.S.-led international coalition fought their way Thursday into a sprawling military base outside of Mosul and onto the grounds of the city's airport, taking control of the runway amid fierce exchanges of fire with Islamic State group militants.

I have long suspected (well, for three months now) that we might yet see an airmobile element helicopter into positions to aid the southwest offensive, which is something we haven't seen since the 2014 CTS air assault on Tikrit, where the Iraqi CTS landed in a Tikrit stadium to use as an airhead.

According to satellite photos the Al-Idara Al-Mahalia Stadium is on the west side of the Tigris River.

An airhead there could be used to get behind the ISIL defenders to the south and west, while also supporting a secondary river assault operation from eastern Mosul, securing bridge sites for temporary bridges either across the river or to span gaps on the damaged bridges.

But first the base and airfield have to be secured and prepared for operations.

The assault could certainly be mounted from farther away, but having an airfield close would greatly reduce response time to support and reinforce the airhead.

Where the Iron Curtain 2.0 Will First Descend

I've long been worried about a Russian anschluss with Belarus. Russian-Belarusian relations are getting tense:

The spiraling conflict between the neighbors has reached such a level that some analysts have talked about Russia possibly staging a "palace coup" against Lukashenko. Visibly nervous about Russia's intentions, the Belarusian leader recently assured his nation of 10 million people that "there will be no war" between the two countries.

Lukashenko has sought to present Belarus as an indispensable partner for Russia and a bulwark against NATO. At the same time, he has periodically made overtures to the West, masterfully exploiting Moscow's fear of losing a crucial ally to win more financial aid.

As I've noted, Belarus might be the most important territory in Europe today.

In Russian hands, Belarus becomes a Russian launching pad to make the defense of the Suwalki Gap the new Fulda Gap flash point.

At that point we will have no choice but to admit that we really need armored cavalry again.

I Don't Think This Reset Was Translated Accurately

While it is certainly admirable (and safer from an escalation standpoint) that Russia might rely on conventional forces to defend their country rather than nuclear weapons, the Russians are a long way from having a conventional military capable of defending their vast border from Central Asia to the Pacific.

Okay:

Russia will continue to see the development of its nuclear forces as a top priority, but the military will rely increasingly on conventional weapons to deter any aggression, the Russian Defense Minister said Tuesday.

Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday that weapons such as the long-range Kalibr cruise missiles carried by navy ships, long-range cruise missiles carried by Russian strategic bombers and the land-based short-range Iskander missiles will play an increasingly important role as a non-nuclear deterrent. Those missiles can carry nuclear or conventional warheads.

Really, with most of Russia's conventional combat power in the west where they face weaker states on their borders, Russia has sufficient combat power to deter or defeat any conceivable conventional assault on Russia.

It is in the east where Russian conventional power is so weak that it must rely on nuking an invader.

The article conveys the notion that Russia can downgrade their reliance on nukes to defend their territorial integrity.

But is that what Shoigu is saying? I don't think so.

Isn't Shoigu really saying that Russia's successful use of precision weapons in Syria gives them a capability we've long had--that of using precision conventional weapons to take out targets that once required a nuclear warhead to destroy?

So if someone bombs Russia with conventional warheads, Russia could consider keeping their nukes in their silos and instead reply with conventional precision weapons.

That narrow window is way different than saying Russia can defend themselves from any aggression, including conventional invasion--from China, for example--without using nukes to make up for lack of conventional military power to cover their long border in the east.

NATO Still Has Its Original Mission

The idea that in an age of increased Russian aggression that NATO needs a new mission outside of Europe to keep it relevant is just ludicrous.

Oh good grief:

Nato needs to reform into a global alliance against Islamic terrorism – or become obsolete

That's the title of the article. The suggestion is, to use a technical term, stupid.

NATO needs to focus on its core mission of protecting NATO Europe from threats, whether from Russian tanks, terrorists, or migrants from the south.

The fight against Islamic terrorism is a nice bonus created by well-trained European military forces used to working with each other and America under common standards and procedures that the alliance requires.

NATO nations have been and are taking part in anti-jihadi operations without this new and improved NATO that downgrades defense of the continent itself.

UPDATE: Stratfor discusses Europe and NATO, which lost the simple mission of stopping the Soviets when the USSR collapsed.

Our problem is really with Europe and not with NATO:

In the end, there is no NATO problem. There is a European problem. A European consensus on defense does not exist any more than a consensus on economics does.

So even the political arm of Europe, the European Union's proto-imperial state, can't agree on goals. And the political arm works at cross purposes to the military arm, NATO.

As far as I'm concerned, the solution isn't for Europe to get a military arm under the EU that weakens NATO. What good does that do when the EU can't agree on political goals; and when such a program would weaken the NATO military arm without building a real replacement?

For me, the solution is to get rid of the EU political arm that can't be effective unless it becomes the autocratic empire it clearly wants to be with their "ever closer union" vision.

The continued existence of NATO with a strong America involved at least makes sure that European states continue to maintain common weapons and operating standards to work together on a volunteer basis outside of NATO.

And to be prepared to defend Europe from a Russia that could develop a military threat to NATO or to react to a threat from the south, as Libya was in 2011. Sure, that didn't work out so well as a means to stop a migrant wave to Europe, but European states were able to operate together because of NATO habits.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Live By the Scimitar

Iran has worked hard to destabilize their region. Is the Persian imperial state as vulnerable to this disorder as Arab states have been?

If it is true that the era of Sykes-Picot is coming to an end in the Middle East and that states like Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq are going to have their boundaries redrawn, it is hard to see how this process can be stopped at the Iran-Iraq border. The Iranian Kurds want independence, and many of Iran’s Arabs would gladly join with their Shi’a Arab brethren (and fellow tribesmen in many cases) across the boundary. Iran’s own meddling has played a major role in the breakdown of order across the region and the enflamed identity politics now plunging country after country into terrible wars. Can the mullahs play with fire and not be burned?

I've mentioned that Iran is really a multi-ethnic empire with subject people not happy about Persian rule.

Strategypage has more on Iran that is relevant.

Iran could well die by the scimitar they so eagerly wield against their Arab neighbors.

Be Careful What You Claim You Wish For

That Russians are "turning on" Trump is quite the dilemma for the "Evil Genius Russians Hacked Our Election" cabal, isn't it?

The new U.S. president has been in his role for just under a month, taking office in a transition that has been marked by chaos and missteps. And already, from the right of the political spectrum to the marginalized Russian left, a mixture of disappointment with the new U.S. president — who came into office promising to remake relations between the two countries — and a sense of vindication that Trump couldn’t be trusted after all has crept into Russian political chatter.

Were the Russians so awful at spy craft that they screwed up the premise in successfully getting Trump elected?

Or, as I think, did the Russians screw up by assuming there was no way Trump could win in a failed effort to get a damaged Hillary elected?

Russia expected to get a crippled but predictable (made even more "predictable" by the Kremlin's possession of Clinton's secret emails that would have provided blackmail material) President Hillary Clinton.

And now the Russians have to deal with a President Trump who apparently can't be damaged by any revelation. That's gotta suck from the Kremlin's point of view.

And worse for Russia, rather than showing American-style democracy to be too difficult to carry out (and thus have less appeal to Russians should Putin's aura of success crack), we got a clear result with no constitutional crisis.

And even worse, our people elected the candidate that the national media waged war against. And our people voted even though the national elites and media tried to bully them through shame into passivity.

For Putin who relies on state media to prop him up and the power of the state to bully any opposition into passivity, our election must be profoundly disturbing.

I'll still bet on the latter.

And now the Russian people, after being told by their own government that if only the corrupt American system would let a true friend like Donald Trump become president all would be great again, find their government was 100% wrong.

Size Matters

Why Would the Navy build light aircraft carriers when a larger number of smaller carriers will never match the quality of a smaller number of large carriers built for the same price?

It may seem odd that I'm defending large carriers as the primary sea control asset given my questions about how well they'd survive in a war with a peer competitor in a network-centric threat environment.

But we need some type of naval aviation. And carriers remain invaluable in power projection roles, which is different than their sea control weaknesses.

But is building light carriers really the answer to costs and survivability?

The new conventional carriers would be roughly the same size as the World War II-vintage Midway-class—as they were configured toward the end of their service lives—and would carry a formidable air wing. Initially, the new carrier strike groups would be equipped the Lockheed Martin F-35B, but once the new CVLs are built and are operational, they would be able to embark more capable air wings.

“In the near-term, existing LHA/LHD amphibious assault ships would be employed as CVLs using a loadout of twenty to twenty-five F-35B aircraft. As they reach the end of their service life, LHA/LHD-derived CVLs would be replaced by purpose-built CVLs with a displacement similar to a Cold War-era Midway-class aircraft carrier and equipped with catapults and arresting gear,” the report states.

The Navy commissioned the report and seems to be backing it.

I find it odd that the Navy backs this idea.

Smaller carriers of a Midway-class size are not as efficient as a larger carrier and provide capabilities far less than the money they save:

I recently read that the Navy had studied medium carriers with 55 planes versus large carriers with 75 planes and found that the large ships and wings generated twice the sorties at a ship and plane cost only 13% more than the medium ships.

And interesting enough, even a wing of 55 planes on the large carrier generated 40% more sorties than the same wing on a medium carrier.

That's because our carriers are planned to be able to use 2/3 of the wing at the same time. So a big carrier's deck can handle a higher percentage of the smaller wing's planes.

So, yeah, we couldn't build enough smaller carriers at the same price to be more survivable and we'd have less sortie generation capacity.

If we build carriers, they should be big. But that doesn't end the carrier debate. Then the question is, do we need carriers at all?

Unless you can build and operate multiple smaller carriers for the price of one big one, plus the escorts, you don't save money and you don't maintain capabilities. (See Bay for more discussion.)

Nor is survivability enhanced much unless you have lots of smaller carriers. If you can replace one big deck with four smaller ones, you could have 40 targets instead of 10. Even if we can do that, is it really that tough for an enemy with far cheaper anti-ship missiles to expand their arsenal to cope with that number?

And yes, we can use amphibious assault ships as light carriers, but exploiting a feature of a ship designed for landing Marines for aviation missions when necessary makes more of what we have. That is not comparable money-wise to building a light carrier specifically for that aviation mission.

Heck, I even suggested moving from the LHA to Ford-class amphibs. Perhaps we could have a total of multi-purpose aviation and amphibious Fords smaller than the current mix of full-deck amphibs and fleet carriers, as long as the Fords could operate as either amphibs or fleet carriers, depending on what is needed.

If we build carriers, they should be big. Although we have to accept that those carriers are primarily for power projection and not for leading the fight for sea control.

The question is really whether we need as many as we have or whether we should start gradually shifting the central player in our sea control mission to non-carrier Navy assets, reserving a smaller number of big carriers for power projection missions or sea control missions in a more permissive environment.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Is There Nothing Trump Can't Do?

Less than a month into the Trump administration, the Euros have a scapegoat for their woes:

European leaders Friday fired a salvo of warnings against Washington, cautioning it against hurting EU cohesion, abandoning shared values and seeking a rapprochement with Russia behind the backs of its allies.

Because EU cohesion was in fine shape when American policy favored the EU and when President Obama weighed in on the Remain side in the Brexit campaign last year.

As for shared values, what Western values exactly does that proto-imperial project share with the world's longest running constitutional republic?

On Russia, settle down skittish Euro squirrels, we're not going anywhere--which pisses you guys off, too. Every top official we have, like Vice President Pence, is out there reassuring Europe that America isn't walking away from NATO or going wobbly on Russia under Putin.

I did say the Euro elites would blame Trump for everything, I'll note.

UPDATE: Vice President Pence said that America backs the EU:

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence assured the European Union in Brussels on Monday that the Trump administration will develop their cooperation in trade and security and backs the EU as a partner in its own right.

I hope this is just an exercise in dealing with the reality of the existence of the EU (for now) while not giving the Euros the excuse of America to explain away their failures.

Despite the words, I hope our policy is not to encourage or in any way prop up the European Union that can only undermine NATO, the true defender of the West in Europe.

Perhaps we're just standing aside as the proto-empire destroys itself.

The Tragedy of the Commons

Europe doesn't build enough hardware, maintain enough hardware, or let their troops train enough on their hardware to make many of Europe's troops more than glorified riot control police. So now they won't do enough cooperatively? That will work out just swell.

On the surface, this could work:

In signing ceremonies at NATO, defense ministers from France and Germany said they will buy Lockheed Martin C-130J transport planes, while Germany, Belgium and Norway will join a Netherlands-led fleet of Airbus A330 tanker planes.

Buying in bulk should lower prices.

But will operating cooperatively reduce costs or just result in the tragedy of the commons for the A330, with nobody with an ownership interest in maintaining the capability?

This is interesting, however:

Germany also agreed joint training and deployments of land forces with the Czech Republic and Romania, with both countries set to provide a brigade of several thousand troops for a larger division under German leadership.

Smaller NATO countries will group smaller units into a brigade that will fight under a German division.

We're getting closer to some European states providing tribal auxiliaries to the more capable European powers--not for American units.

So We Need What, Now?

It's nice to see money-saving joint programs like this:

The U.S. and Canadian governments on Feb. 7 established a partnership that will enable the U.S. Coast Guard heavy polar icebreaker acquisition program to test and validate potential heavy polar icebreaker design models at Canada’s National Research Council (NRC) in St John’s, Newfoundland, the Coast Guard said in a Feb. 9 release.

Wait, what? A new heavy icebreaker?

I was under the impression that the polar ice would disappear under the onslaught of global warming.

Never mind.

Monday, February 20, 2017

Does Russia Fear an Orange 2.0 Revolution?

I don't buy the idea that Russia wanted above all else to avoid Hillary Clinton as president. I do buy the idea that the Russians are worried about Trump.

If the Russians did fear the possibility of President Hillary Clinton, as this article says, why didn't the Russians try to prevent Hillary Clinton from getting the Democratic nomination?

Why didn't the Russians try to put Comrade Bernie into that position to end the Hillary threat early rather than rely on Trump--of all people!--to stop Hillary?

And why didn't the Russians try to help anyone--anyone at all--in the Republican contest, given that Trump was widely viewed as the weakest possible candidate to face Hillary? Indeed, Democrats in the Hillary camp welcomed a Trump challenger (as the favorable press by even the left-leaning press demonstrates).

So no, I don't buy the idea that Russia has "buyer's regret" over Trump.

I do buy the notion that the Russians are worried about Trump.

And in bonus territory, this Russian worry noted in the article is exactly what I wrote about early after the election:

The Kremlin today is staunchly opposed to “regime change,” the visitors were told, and thus skittish about eulogizing [the Bolshevik revolution in] 1917. It plans to use the centenary, instead, to draw attention to the catastrophic consequences of resorting to revolution to solve social and political problems.

The last thing the Russian government expected was that 2017 would bring it face to face not with a revolution of the past but with a revolution of the present — the radical regime change taking place in the United States as a result of the electoral victory of Donald Trump. It is Trump’s electoral revolution that has captured the imagination, and fanned the fears, of Russian elites today.

As I said before, the Russian people saw the American people elect an underdog that the elites and the media tried to stop with a shamelessly biased effort that pulled out all the stops to demonize Trump and his supporters, and bully those supporters into staying home and not voting for Trump.

Who knows what lessons the Russian people might draw from our election when the thrill of cheap intervention abroad wears off?

Putin is right to fear Trump even if Trump does nothing at all.

The Ten-Year Rule Reaches 8 With Predictable Results

How is it possible to be short of ammunition in a dangerous world?

This is really unacceptably stupid:

Shortages of bombs and other munitions have forced the U.S. military to pull weapons from headquarters in other parts of the world to sustain its 2 1/2-year-old air campaign against the Islamic State group, despite billions of dollars invested in increasing the stockpiles.

"We are concerned, worldwide, when looking at ammunition needs," Deborah James, the former head of the Air Force, said in an interview shortly before stepping down from her position last month. "We've been expending so many in the Middle East we've had to borrow in some cases from other areas."

"What we want to do is replenish," James says.

We aren't even involved in high-intensity conventional warfare against a peer-ish military. Yet we are emptying warehouses earmarked for other potential theater of war to bomb one ragged group holding ground in Syria and Iraq?

Seriously?

And this is even worse because America maintains stocks of ammunition that serve as the reserve for our allies who as a rule do not maintain such stocks. We had to replenish allies in the Libya War in 2011 despite the weakness of Khadaffi's surviving military in that civil war.

And ammunition is just one measure of our lack of readiness that is finally catching up with our military. (Tip to Instapundti.)

But don't say we weren't warned. This poor readiness is just one effect of the modern ten year rule we launched in 2009:


We assume no enemies will match us in the medium term. This is undoubtedly correct. But this also sounds too much like we're instituting our version of the British Ten Year Rule from 1919.

It was a perfectly reasonable rule when adopted by the British government in 1919, which stated the British would not face a war in the next ten years. The rule was formally abolished 13 years later, in 1932. But defense spending did not rebound from its post-1919 collapse, and when war broke out in 1939, the British only barely proved they'd done enough to withstand the German offensive in the opening of the war.

Certainly, we won't face such a dramatic collapse in defense spending that the British military endured in the 1920s. My worry is whether we will do any better than the British did in recognizing when our version of the ten-year rule no longer holds true. When our national debt is scheduled to skyrocket even under optimistic administration projections, will we actually ramp up our defense spending once the medium term is over in order to maintain our military superiority? Or will we just continue to act as if the medium term never ends? That's what the British did. But they had the Arsenal of Democracy to back them up when they found themselves at war without the military they needed. We don't have such a back-up source of arms.

We've just instituted the Medium Term Rule on our defense spending. The problems that will flow from this plan won't show themselves in the near term. We can coast on our past progress in building the best military in the world. But have no doubt that our military strength will erode, and this means we are accepting risks in case we have to fight a conventional war in the medium term despite our assumption that we can still win such a war.

We won't cancel the Medium Term Rule until it's too late to do any good.

We seem prepared to cancel the Medium Term Rule. I guess the question is whether it is too late to do any good.

Bleed Them Until They Leave

In some ways, America is fine with the status quo in Ukraine. But if Ukrainians resent our lack of interest in ejecting the Russian invaders, the status quo does not in fact benefit America. We should help Ukraine send Russian body bags home.

At a moment frozen in time, this is defensible to argue:

The problem for Ukraine is that its interests are not the same as U.S. interests. Ukraine wants to reunify the country and expel Russia from its territory. The U.S. is primarily interested in weakening Russia, and the fate of Donetsk and Luhansk is immaterial to that goal. The U.S. is not going to abandon Ukraine, but that is an easy thing to say and a much harder thing to be sure of if you are in Kiev reading American newspapers and following various White House statements.

While I am certainly not willing to commit American forces to a fight to eject the Russians from Crimea and the eastern Donbas, I don't see why we shouldn't help Ukrainians fight the Russians.

And while the Russians may be unwilling to escalate now. Their ambitions cover all of Ukraine and they may expand their goals as their capabilities grow.

If we are seen by Ukrainians as the restraint on ejecting the Russians while Russia does not have the capacity to win a wider war, we will be blamed and Ukraine may not be pro-American for long.

What if on top of resenting our failure to help eject the Russians, our acceptance of Russia's conquests at Ukraine's expense is viewed as just allowing Russia to prepare for another grab in the future? Will Ukraine believe that we will accept that, too?

While it might make sense on paper for Ukraine to accept the status quo and remain pro-Western and anti-Russian, if the Ukrainians feel abandoned by the West they might decide they have to cut a deal with Russia.

And then all of a sudden the Russians are on NATO's doorstep in the center and southwest.

As much as possible, rather than killing frontline cannon fodder in flare-ups along the ceasefire line, Ukraine should attempt to use artillery to target Russian units inside the Donbas supporting the astro-turf secessionists.

In a perfect world, Ukrainian special forces and irregulars add to that body count; and arm local resistance in the Donbas to the Russian occupation.

Russian unwillingness to suffer casualties is their center of gravity. And Putin's denial that Russian army units are even inside the Donbas is an opportunity. Will Russia admit their units by complaining about their losses?

I think a deal that largely restores the status quo ante with some concessions on local autonomy should be acceptable to Ukraine and the West while giving Russia something to claim they achieve in this war of aggression launched nearly 3 years ago. But the costs of occupation have not been high enough for Putin.

But Russia says that they won't leave Crimea:

Russia said on Wednesday it would not hand back Crimea to Ukraine or discuss the matter with foreign partners after the White House said U.S. President Donald Trump expected the annexed Black Sea peninsula to be returned.

I still think Ukraine should bill Russia for rent on the entire peninsula, with back rent calculated back to March 2014 when Russia took it from Ukraine.

Perhaps Ukraine should also announce that all of the sea ports and airports of Crimea are closed. And then pursue damages against any company that violates the lawful order over their territory. Perhaps the monthly rent charged Russia could be the base for determining damages.

And if Ukraine can lay a some low-yield naval mines off of their Crimea ports, that would signal the closure to deter travel and at least raise insurance rates for those ships that travel to the port.

Russia has to feel the human and financial pain of holding their gains more than they have so far. If they don't, they won't leave.

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Weekend Data Dump

If California's secessionists manage--contrary to all expectations--put a measure on the ballot to leave the United States because they don't like the current American government, will the secessionists allow their counties the same privilege to refuse to join their secessionist brethren?

This author is right on the mark in his discussion of the problems and usefulness of big aircraft carriers, touching on just about every point I've made over the years. Kudos, Mr. Forsling. Here's just one of my posts with a number of useful links to other relevant posts. My hope is that we have a sea power debate rather than a carrier debate where each side argues past the other. I admit I will have to re-think my views if the seas become transparent for submarine detection.

You know, I never tire of reminding readers that my time in uniform was as a reservist signal soldier and that I never served overseas. At best, my unit was almost sent overseas in 1991. One publication wrongly stated that I had served in West Germany and I immediately sent an email that they printed in the next issue to clarify that. They had wrongly interpreted my statement that my Guard unit was earmarked to support VII Corps. I deleted that source of confusion in my short bio (that until then had never been misinterpreted, but I didn't want to risk that again). I won't pretend that my honorable REMF service was anything special. So this sort of lying about military service is pretty outrageous to me. It's also probably why it annoys me to no end that liberals infected with Trump Hysteria Condition try to pretend that their delusional beliefs about fascism descending on America make them the "Resistance" when nobody is trying to hunt them down in their secret meetings at the local organic market. Tip to Instapundit.

Background on US-Mexican relations. We've had ups and downs. Yes, we fought a war with Mexico. But we fought a war with Japan and Italy--and two with Germany--yet we have good relations with those three countries and hyphenated Americans assimilated here, too. In the end, we will work things out with our neighbor and friend that has provided many of our citizens. Our immigration policies for Mexico's northern border will never be as harsh as Mexico's are for their Central American neighbors, recall.

I will say that the 9th Circuit's upholding of a state's standing to sue the federal government over the Trump foreigner executive order (which itself says nothing about the actual policy's constitutionality) could in the future cause some collateral damage to the Left which sees an all-powerful federal government as their primary means of getting what they want. We shall see.

Feminism today is really upper class white liberal women. If not, Conway would be celebrated as the first female campaign manager to win an election for her candidate. And they'd focus on the impact of mass illegal immigration on poor and working African-Americans (including women) rather than emphasizing the impact on illegal female immigrants. But like I've always said, Feminism as a movement (as opposed to feminism as accepting equality for women) is just the women's auxiliary of Liberalism.

Turkey is working on long-range ballistic missiles. Although range is not specified. I have to feel that Turkey sucking up to Russia and Iran is just to buy time to get these missiles and perhaps some nuclear warheads to go with them.

Ukrainians are doing a good job--with Polish help, too--of rebuilding tanks to take on the Russians. Early in that war I wrote that we didn't need to send heavy armor because Ukraine had a large stock to build on, and that our eastern NATO allies could help with updates. We can help fill gaps to make what Ukraine has more effective. This need for military power applies even if Ukraine is giving up on retaking the east (let alone Crimea). If Russia gets away with their conquests, they'll come after Ukraine later for more.

I'm more than happy to have a debate on immigration and at what level and under what conditions does it benefit America--as opposed to the obvious benefit to immigrants (which the Democrats oddly assume to be true despite coming to the Trump dystopia). But the Democrats don't want that debate.  They just want to muddy the waters by denying that we have illegal immigrants. (They're just undocumented! Try that in any other field where you need government approval.) So they pretend to be morally superior by denying that we should have any debate at all over the basic sovereign right and responsibility to control our borders. Just how does unlimited immigration help the working poor and unemployed here who want jobs without that massive flow of competition at the bottom rung of the ladder?

At least elements of the 10th Combat Aviation Brigade (part of 10th Mountain Division) deployed to Germany to support NATO forces on the eastern front. It is not being stationed there, just rotated in.

FYI, 72 persons convicted in America of terrorism charges were from the countries included in the executive order temporarily preventing persons from 7 countries from entering America.

I have no particular feelings about National Security Advisor Flynn, who resigned this week. He lied about his contacts with the Russians to his own boss, so he deserved to go for that alone. But this is key, not because talking to Russians was illegal, so we should all worry about how he was shot down. If our people ever think that voting doesn't change government because the permanent bureaucracies won't let mere elections change what they do, what's the next rational decision of the people? This news shows the great thing about not being a Trump fan. He was the last person I wanted to win the Republican nomination, having only the single all-important advantage of not being Hillary Clinton. So I can be pleasantly surprised when President Trump carries out conservative goals. And of course I can be supportive of the people who count on Trump to address their needs who have been ignored for so long. But if the president does something I don't like, I don't feel like I can't or shouldn't criticize him. If the president is too accommodating to Russia or discounts the importance of intelligence, I will oppose that as I opposed President Obama's Iran opening,  his failure to take presidential daily briefings, and Hillary Clinton's lax security procedures with her private email server while Secretary of State (which makes Democratic demands that Flynn lose his security clearance--even if they are right--rather tough to take). Although note to the Left that has dialed up the opposition to 11 over every damn little thing, your too-often violent reactions dull my urge to oppose. FYI. And no, when you shout down discussions, that is not in fact "what democracy looks like." That's what thug storm trooper tactics look like. Again, FYI.

Can we stop this loose talk of impeachment, coups, and civil war (and dictatorship)? This is politics we're talking about, nothing more. If it becomes more, I swear I'll blog about it.

The United States Navy is establishing a ship, aircraft, and Marine presence in the Red Sea. This helps our Arab allies oppose Iranian influence in the region.

Possible "pranksters" released pepper spray at a Hamburg, Germany airport that spread through the ventilation system. While that is not a lethal agent, could it have been a test run to see if more lethal agents can be dispersed that way? Mind you, even lethal agents might not have a concentration to make it lethal, but it would injure and sow panic. So there you go.

I sincerely hoped that race relations would be improved by the election of our first African-American president. It was a big deal. Didn't happen. But at least we don't have African-American racist haters, right? Wait. What? All white people are really handicapped and thus a protected class under federal law? Well, perhaps the young lady didn't fully think through her theory. Tip to Instapundit.

As I've said, return power to the states (and to local governments) to defuse the partisan divide growing at the national level. And it checks federal power. I've long advocated that. With a federal government in the hands of the Republicans, now--other than the "civil servants"--perhaps this conservative view will get a strange new respect from Democrats. As unhappy liberal Californians unseriously consider secession, which would make the remaining American 49 states more conservative absent California's Democratic voters, legislators, and money. Wouldn't it be better--and more compassionate to fellow liberals--to allow all states to have more autonomy under a federal system that reverses the flow of so much power to Washington, D.C.? Tip to Instapundit.

When it comes to Kuznetsov, great minds think alike.

Just as diligently as O. J. Simpson is looking for the "real killer." Tip to Instapundit.

A quick review of the Philippines from Strategypage. It's all fun and games when cops are killing drug dealers. Rule of law is easier to lose than to regain.

Nanny staters say that people must be protected from check cashing stores that function as an alternative to banks (say, who foreclosed on their homes?). But an academic found out they can make sense for a lot of people, But they're icky. And when reality clashes with elite theory, reality must give way. Tip to Instapundit.

A Russian spy ship is sailing off our coast in international waters. I wouldn't even bother to yawn about it except that some people seem to be making a big deal about it. While annoying, it is perfectly legal. And less significant than even I thought it is. I'm not losing sleep at night. As long as our similar operations are taking place at a higher rate. Although we might want to be prepared in case the ship breaks down and needs a tow.

I expected that my relief that Hillary lost the election would be replaced by worry about Trump being president. You know my history of not liking him one bit. But I haven't hit that transition point. Why? Because liberals have thrown a constant "dialed to 11" tantrum and made it easy to support him rather than them. It's like with police shootings. I don't want people shot by police. Courts must decide guilt and punishment. And I worry about the over-militarization of our police. Combined with my view that police-backed government regulation of our lives is too deep (really, selling "loosies" is something police should crack down on?), there was room for discussion. But when the communist-backed Black Live Matters showed up with lies about "hands up, don't shoot" and framed the issue as either for them and their anti-law enforcement attitudes or the police, the choice of who to side with became easy. So congratulations to the left for valuing polarization over rational discussion. Enjoy.

Leftists who maintain a "mass shootings" database altered the definition of a mass shooting that law enforcement uses. The result is to show such shootings as more common by an order of magnitude. Ah, science. Tip to Instapundit.

I'm not pleased with Turkish cooperation with Russia and Iran over Syria, but Turkey's win against Syrian government forces in the race for control of al-Bab in northern Syria (which had been conrolled by ISIL) is the least bad thing to happen. Although the Turkish-backed forces aren't fully in control yet as of the news date, so don't celebrate quite yet.

America complains that Russia violated a Cold War treaty on theater nuclear weapons. The  SSC-8 cruise missile is the violation charged. Russia denies everything. If Russia didn't inherit the USSR's legal responsibility to uphold that treaty, perhaps we should revisit that Russia inheriting the Soviet Union's UN Security Council permanent seat, eh?

For all those Democrats suddenly worried about the health of NATO, Secretary of Defense Mattis reassured our NATO allies that the alliance is a "fundamental bedrock"  of our foreign defense policy. I'm almost giddy that the Left is now pro-NATO.

The youngest don't get the attention to develop the way a first-born does.  As I joke with my daughter, Lamb (we are both the youngest), the first get all the attention but by the time we came along, the parental attitude is "Sure, you can play in traffic--just look both ways."

At this point, clamping down on US trade relations with Cuba would put China more at risk with their new investments.

I wonder if these 82nd Airborne pathfinders returning from their quiet mission based at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti participated in the Yemen raid?

We should stop going along with the fiction that Putin promotes that the Donbas is controlled by local pro-Russian elements. Russia invaded the Donbas and is at war with Ukraine.

I am officially in mourning as I hear that BrainDead has been cancelled. Curse you, CBS.

Funny, but I think in terms of fairness--which makes me conservative contrary to the article's divisions. For example, how is it fair to working Americans or the poor to have open borders that just create more competition for jobs by immigrants and depresses wages for entry level jobs? How is it fair to have so many welfare programs when so many people work hard to afford the same things? Really, the government subsidizes phones? But I clearly see fairness in a different manner than liberals, I guess.

Funny, this is similar to how Assad drives rebellious civilians from their homes by blockading supplies. Tip to Instapundit. If the group involved in this California school initiative was called Friends of the Children the policy would be very different.

I mentioned Sweden's reactivation of coastal defense missile units. Strategypage discusses that.

In the debate over replacing the A-10, one company wants to replace the ground support aircraft by building a new plane around the A-10's 30mm gatling gun. That's recycling I can fully endorse. Tip to Instapundit.

The science is scuttled. Why do the people who claim to have science on their side behave in such an unscientific manner so often?

Late in the week President Trump decided to whine about the situation he inherited. I'll repeat what I said when Obama complained about inheriting problems from Bush 43--man the ef up. Every president inherits problems from their predecessor. The world does not follow an arc of problem and resolution neatly within a presidential term. So just stop it.

Raging Islamophobia in action: "Turkey has increased scrutiny of Russian-speaking Muslim communities in the past few months following a series of attacks blamed on Islamic State, a concrete example of the renewed relationship between the two countries."

To my liberal readers, I can understand why you will grind your teeth in frustration during presidential news conferences the next 4-8 years. If it makes you feel better, that's how I felt for the previous 8 years. As I occasionally wrote, my sympathy for the tough job Obama had increased in direct proportion to the time since I last heard him talk about policy matters. I guiltily admit it has been enjoyable to see the "leg tingle" crowd in the press corps take to their fainting couches over the recent Trump press conference where he showed his hostility to the press. While the sight of a press corps willing to challenge a president is a refreshing change after the last 8 years of fawning worship, in their eagerness to pounce they shouldn't drop all standards, eh? Perhaps we should give them a break because they're rusty. Surely they'll get better. But I also hope that future presidential press conferences aren't so Thunder Domey. That will get old real fast. Although media hostility to Republicans predates this spectacle.

A Strategypage overview of Nigeria. As I wrote about while the original Iraq War raged, corruption is a problem masked by the greater problem of jihadis. Now that Boko Haram is dwindling, the corruption is the problem to face. And when ISIL is defeated as an organized force (terror will remain), corruption must be fought in Iraq.

Just a political commissars assigned to communist military units reduce effectiveness by making sure ideology is elevated over military judgment, a vast array of politically correct commissars assigned (by themselves) to colleges no doubt reduces their educational effectiveness. Tip to Instapundit.

The Trump administration is talking tough about Russia. Good. But I was never worried about that issue. And this is surely a great relief to Democrats who are Born Again Russkie Slayers since the election campaign. But somebody please inform Representative Waters, eh? Use short words. She's not the sharpest knife in the drawer. 

News in countering the awful crimes that mass illegal migration fuels, from Paraguay and Pakistan sends back refugees, which is obviously Islamophobic. Paraguay is guilty of something awful, too, I'm sure. I'm sorry, I interrupted you while you were telling me how controlling America's borders is so uniquely awful.

As I've mentioned, a wall (or any obstacle) is worthless without people defending it--even nuanced compassionate Europeans know this. 

Much as there were French collaborators who weren't thrilled that France was liberated from Nazi control, you have to expect that some Crimeans eagerly working with their Russian conquerors would oppose the return of Crimea to Ukraine

Let's remember that President Obama sent the National Guard to the Mexican border. As did Bush before him.

China halted coal imports from North Korea for the rest of this year to punish the North Koreans for their solid-fuel rocket test. Luckily, Trump lifted impediments on American coal mining, which presumably could fill the gap in Chinese imports.

It Takes a Village to Craze a Child

This is who we fight:

When the boys first arrived at the Islamic State training facility in eastern Mosul they would cry and ask about their parents, who went missing when the militants rampaged through northern Iraq in 2014.

But as the weeks passed they appeared to absorb the group's ultra-hardline ideology, according to a worker at the former orphanage where they were housed.

The children, aged from three to 16 and mostly Shi'ite Muslims or minority Yazidis, began referring to their own families as apostates after they were schooled in Sunni Islam by the militant fighters, he said.

The boys were separated from the girls and infants, undergoing indoctrination and training to become "cubs of the caliphate - a network of child informers and fighters used by the jihadists to support their military operations.

Girls were "married off" to jihadis.

As I mentioned before, this smacks of the work of Saddam's Islamicized lads in ISIL, given that there were "Saddam's Cubs" before we destroyed the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003.

So even after ISIL's caliphate is defeated, they've sown the seeds of depravity to poison the future.

Because sometimes it takes a child to raze a village, eh?

This problem of indoctrinating hate in children is larger than just ISIL, of course.

Why every Westerner isn't a committed anti-jihadist is beyond me. Jihadis are evil and need to be killed.

The Southwest Hounds Are Unleashed

The Iraqi offensive to take western Mosul has kicked off:

Plumes of smoke were seen rising into the sky early Sunday morning as U.S.-led coalition jets struck militant positions southwest of Mosul and militarized Iraqi police fired artillery toward the city. Heavily armed police units were getting ready to move north with their armored vehicles from a base just southwest of the city. ...

Iraqi special operations forces, regular army and federal police units are taking part in the offensive along with government-approved paramilitary forces, mainly consisting of Shiite militias, which are operating on the city's outskirts.

I guess I saw the right signs of the impending assault.

As I expected the activity is to the south and southwest. Although I kept expecting the attack to kick off while ISIL was fixed by the assault on eastern Mosul. That never happened and the phases were sequential rather than concurrent.

Will there also be an air assault into a stadium inside western Mosul to use it as an airhead? That speculation was a lot of that post.

Will there be a complementary assault across the Tigris River from eastern Mosul? Or was that threat a feint all along?

UPDATE: I enjoyed this:

The forces will not be able to attack across the river because all five bridges connecting the eastern and western parts of the city are heavily damaged, so the offensive is expected to come from the south and west.

For weeks now, the stories have been that the attack on western Mosul would be a river assault across the Tigris.

Which made no sense to me when you considered the large force and logistics and fire support base south of Mosul on the west side of the river. Why assault a river when you can avoid it?

As a secondary threat, sure. But the primary axis of advance? Why?

But now the news says the attack "is expected" to come from the south and west.

I assume the military sources were spreading a little disinformation for the benefit of ISIL over the last weeks with those river assault stories.

I wonder if ISIL bought it?

UPDATE: More. Two things.

One, it confirms that Counter-Terrorism Service deployed from the east to the west.

And two, will the fight for western Mosul really be harder than the battle for the part east of the Tigris River?

If the ISIL defenders used up their best people and weapons in the failed effort to hold off--or at least decisively bleed--the Iraqi offensive on the east bank, why will the effort on the western side of the Tigris be harder?

UPDATE: So American officials estimate that 2,000 ISIL defenders remain in western Mosul.

I'm not sure how the conclusion that this phase of the campaign will be tougher than the first phase to capture eastern Mosul was reached.

Without NATO, the West Falters

I agree with Chancellor Merkel:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Friday that NATO is important not just for Europe but also for the United States, speaking as a major security gathering kicked off in Munich.

Europe--now extended to eastern Europe--is an important ally and source of economic, military, and scientific power. It is an objective as much as an ally.

Which is why I am so anti-European Union.

So we'll not be abandoning it or NATO, our primary tool for strengthening our alliance with and defense of Europe.

And as a side note, while Merkel catches grief from conservatives these days, she's head and shoulders above Gerhard Schroeder--anti-American and in Russia's pocket since then--who preceded her.

She made a mistake welcoming unlimited migrants to Europe--which could kill her career. And her allies have another reason to be miffed at her green policies (tips to Instapundit).

But from America's perspective she's a Westerner, no doubt.

UPDATE: Yes, we can cajole Europeans to spend more on defense, but a free and friendly Europe is an important objective for America even if Europeans spent zero money on defense. (Tip to Instapundit.)

Although I strongly disagree with the author's negative assessment of the Iraq War. Note that President Obama who vaulted to the Oval Office on his opposition to the Iraq War ultimately initiated Iraq War 2.0 in 2014 to correct his error of leaving Iraq too soon in 2011.

If the initial war was such a mistake, why did President Obama of all people commit to defending Iraq?

But more important than quibbling over that statement at the moment, America will remain a strong NATO partner to defend Europe, more than a quarter century after the West won the Cold War which freed eastern Europe and more than 70 years after World War II freed a good part of the rest. from Nazi and Fascist control.

Shall I Share Your Location?

I have expressed a worry that our carriers could be self-targeting. It gets worse if our sailors and Marines are cooperative enough. Technology really is catching up with my worries, it seems:

India is the latest country where the military has been forced to deal with the problems created when soldiers have their cell phones with them while on duty. ... Indian commanders feel they have a unique problem in that Pakistani hackers working for the military have managed to install malware (malicious hidden software secretly installed on a computer) on cell phones and laptops used by Indian offers and used that to capture what was on the infected device and also secretly turn on the camera and record what was in view.

If I was in the Chinese navy, I'd sell cheap burner smart phones in every port of call our carriers pull into in the hopes of selling some infected versions of the phones to Internet-addicted crew members.

We tell ourselves that the enemy kill chain to reach our carriers is long and vulnerable. Unless it isn't, of course.

I know I come back to this issue more than I think I do. Heck, I used a similar title in a recent one!

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Ah Yes, I Remember It Well

In an article about a likely violation by Russia of a 1987 treaty on intermediate-range missiles, I nearly laughed out of my chair when I read this:

American and Russian relations were on a better footing in December 1987 when President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the Soviet leader, signed an arms accord, formally known as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and commonly called the I.N.F. treaty. [emphasis added]

For those too young to remember the 1980s, the media had spent the previous 7 years basically arguing that Reagan would get us into a nuclear war with the Soviet Union.

Yet now that is a glorious pre-Trump era of relations on a better footing.

Unless of course you are a member of the media worried that Trump will be too friendly to Russia.

Which means that poor relations developed under Obama? Despite Hillary's "reset?"

It's always tough to remember whether we are at war with Eastasia or not.

Amazing.

On the policy side, Russian theater nukes are not useful against America, of course, for the most part.

Perhaps the Russians aren't as oblivious to the Chinese threat that they pretend to be by loudly focusing on the non-existent NATO threat in the west.

The United States Aerospace Force

The Air Force needs to migrate to being an Aerospace Force.

In science fiction, we have space navies. And maybe for missions away from the Earth-Moon system, such a way of looking at space warships makes sense.

But for the Earth-Moon system that impacts our ground, doesn't that kind of force mesh more as an Air Force mission asset? If so, while the concept is good, calling a future space force a Coast Guard in space just concedes the mission to the Navy doesn't it?

I noted this notion of a Coast Guard in space back in 2012. An effort to have a routine presence in space is good.

But I still think that the Air Force should take the lead, aim high, and become an Aerospace force.

I refined my notion in the years after that initial post 11 years ago. But the basic concept remains valid, I think.

Which is why I like whatever the heck we are doing with the X-37B (tip to Instapundit):

A miniature, reusable space plane just thirty feet long, the X-37B has been in space for 636 days, a long voyage that is quickly becoming typical for the craft. What we still don't know is, what exactly it is doing up there?

There are two X-37B spaceplanes, and they are launched from U.S. Air Force Atlas 5 launch vehicles. Similar to the old Space Shuttle in appearance, the X-37B is just one quarter the size. Unmanned, it lacks a crew and life support systems.

The cargo bay is the size of a pickup truck bed.

Whatever it is doing, it is doing it for a long time. Which means a scaled-up version could do the same one day.

The Air Force clearly doesn't really like to provide ground support to troops, as the longstanding aversion to the A-10 shows. So the Air Force should pull in space missions and migrate the mission and funds for close air support to the Army--matching what the Marines already have.

If that is done, it will be interesting to see what the Army does with armed helicopters and drones once those assets aren't in-house alternatives to fixed wing aircraft provided by another service. Will the Army fund airplanes at the expense of helicopters and drones? Just what asset will the Army value the most?

Unleash the "Why Do They Hate Us?" Questions!

In what world does this excuse for the Louvre attack make sense?

A man arrested by police for attacking soldiers with a machete outside the Louvre museum in Paris last week said he wanted to damage paintings and "avenge" the Syrian people, a judicial source said on Tuesday.

Abdullah Reda al-Hamahmy confirmed his name, his age of 29 and his Egyptian nationality to investigators after initially refusing to speak, the source said.

In what world does it make any sense at all to attack Western art to get back at the Russians, Iranians, Hezbollah, Assad regime, and jihadis who are ripping apart Syria?

In what world? The world that includes the corner of Rage Street and Why Do They Hate Us Boulevard.

Why do they hate us, indeed. Why do they hate is the right question.

And more important than even that is why do we hate ourselves so much to treat these scum with any respect at all?

It's funny, leftists here consider it a war on art if a Republican wants to cut the NEA budget by 5%. In France we have a jihadi fanboy literally trying to destroy art and nobody on the left will work up even a minor bit of annoyance, let alone full frothing rage at the assault on our very civilization.