And Now For Something Completely Different

You like to think that you're immune to the stuff...oh yeah. It's closer to the truth to say you can't get enough. You know you're gonna have to face it you're addicted to memes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is a rerun.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who Will Take the Army to the Battlefield?

The Air Force is confronting its inadequate airlift capacity. The Navy is inadequate to move and escort convoys. Just who will move and sustain the Army from the continental United States (CONUS) to overseas battlefields?

This is a problem:

The Air Force’s fleet of airlifters — roughly half the size it was during the 1990s — has been operating at high tempo for two decades, wearing out airplanes with no near-term prospect of replacement and further cuts to the force planned, despite projected demand for airlift that will operate in increasingly contested environments. 

The problem for the Army is much greater than just assuming the Air Force can spare airlift for Army light tanks. What is left for the Army after the Air Force struggles to meet its own demand for airlift? The Air Force demand will increase just for itself (back to the problem article):

The Air Force’s Agile Combat Employment concept proposes decentralized operations by small units at locations away from permanent bases vulnerable to attack.

The Air Force says it has enough right now.

We already know the Navy is too pressed with higher priorities to escort convoys from CONUS (quoting an article):

In the event of a major war with China or Russia, the U.S. Navy, almost half the size it was during the height of the Cold War, is going to be busy with combat operations. It may be too busy, in fact, to always escort the massive sealift effort it would take to transport what the Navy estimates will be roughly 90 percent of the Marine Corps and Army gear the force would need to sustain a major conflict.

Which is a problem given that America must be in the power projection game to prevent threats from looming over the Western Hemisphere.

Or will we abandon a century-long history of refusing to let those across the oceans settle their problems on their own without becoming a threat to us? The Napoleonic Wars and the effects on American trade don't bode well for that strategy.

NOTE: I left that last paragraph garbled which reversed my intended meaning. Picked a bad week to quit sniffing glue, I guess. It's fixed now.

NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.

Killing the Enemy Is Necessary But Not Sufficient

The Winter War of 2022 doesn't prove "asymmetrical" means are the wave of the future. Too many think it is a mark of success to efficiently kill the enemy while losing the war.

Yes, Western and Ukrainian anti-tank weapons have performed well against the ineptly used Russian armored vehicles. But after inflicting that attrition on Russia's army, Ukraine is shifting to heavy armor and artillery to defeat the Russian invasion and eject the invaders.

The whole effort to pressure Taiwan into buying cheap "asymmetrical" weapons takes the wholly logical and defensible truth about combined arms and joint warfare, but distorts it into a suicidal Taiwanese strategy of presuming to know how many dead PLA troopers will deter the CCP from invading and destroying Taiwan.

These authors resist that myopia, arguing that "reorienting the island to rely on light arms or asymmetrical strategy could significantly weaken the traditional deterrence that Taiwan’s forces could provide against the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)." Yes! 

Inflicting attrition on the invaders must be for the point of weakening and then actually destroying the invaders (quoting an article in a post of mine 6 months ago):

America, Taiwan and any other partners willing to enter the fray would need to concentrate on stopping the invasion, putting every available hindrance in the way of China’s armada and aircraft. Think sea mines and anti-ship and anti-air missiles launched from various platforms on land, at sea and in the air. The defenders would also need to eliminate or eject any Chinese forces that managed to land. [emphasis added]

Taiwan should not be led astray by the belief that a relatively inexpensive silver bullet solution will stop China. Taiwan must be able to drive the PLA into the sea.

UPDATE: If China still has the same casualty threshold it had a couple decades ago, the Russian experience may not deter China.

UPDATE: Chinese options short of full invasion. I suspect the Pratas option is most likely.

In the bigger picture, this author says China could start a war without being confident of victory; and that China would accept a longer multi-stage military conflict.

I already discussed the latter in regard to driving the PLA into the sea. As to the former, exactly. Xi Jinping's calculations will include factors we don't consider.

NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.

Stopping Iran's Final Solution

Israel practiced long-range strikes with an obvious eye on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. But that's not the only means of striking Iran. This won't end the Iran problem. But it does put off Iran's ability to end their problem with the "one-bomb" state of Israel.

This exercise at the beginning of the month is a signal to Iran and America:

The Israeli military said Wednesday that dozens of its aircraft conducted a drill simulating airstrikes on long-range targets, a thinly veiled reference to a possible attack on regional rival Iran.

With the Biden administration bizarrely determined to make mullah-run Iran its best buddy through a revised Iran nuclear deal, Israel must prepare for the worst despite having too few aerial refueling tankers to launch a large enough strike package from Israel to strike Iran:

More than a decade ago, I read that Israel needed the equivalent of 100 aircraft sorties to launch a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities with a hope of success. But Israel couldn't put 100 sorties over Iran at once.

So I looked at ways to reach 100 strike sorties without 100 aircraft. 

And I added to my speculation a few years later.

Basically, if America had too few tankers for a critical mission we'd probably buy more tankers. But Israel isn't nearly as rich. Although given the importance of preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons, that could be a high priority nonetheless.

Israel is now seeking more aerial refueling tankers.

The fact that Israel says it still lacks sufficient aerial refueling capabilities could very well mean that Israel has in fact thought outside the box as I did. And no doubt infinitely better.

Israel also has more options now, including better bombs, cyber capabilities, local assets inside Iran, and anti-Iran allies in the Persian Gulf.

So Israel must have ways to carry out a sufficiently powerful strike if the threat is existential.

Note that "dozens" of aircraft in the exercise doesn't seem to reach close to 100 combat sorties. Although perhaps Israel thinks it can carry out 100 strike sorties over time rather than all at once which exploits the element of surprise and minimizes Iran's ability to use their air defenses.

In addition, people are so used to Israel striking Iranian targets inside Syria that Israel has bought time for a strike package crossing Syria to hit Iran itself. Especially if  part of the strike package actually bombs targets inside Syria and loudly returns to Israel.

Have no doubt, Iran wants nukes:

On June 8 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a resolution calling on Iran to explain traces of uranium that it found at three undisclosed sites of nuclear activity. Hours before the IAEA vote, Iran disconnected security cameras from one of its declared nuclear sites. Then Iran began taking down IAEA cameras throughout its territory. The world's nuclear watchdog is flying blind. 

And Lord knows what Iran has been doing in facilities that have never had cameras:

One condition of the 2015 treaty was to let the IAEA visit Parchin before the end of 2015. The facilities IAEA wanted to inspect were all destroyed or modified and much material removed before the inspectors finally arrived. 

Meanwhile there were new underground facilities being built at Parchin that the inspectors were not allowed near.

Yet some pretend the deal is the key to preventing Iran from going nuclear. Amazing.

Ultimately, bombing Iran's nuclear facilities only delays Iran's threats. The solution is to end the problem of nutball mullahs running Iran. Actually, if Iranians could remove the mullah regime, many problems would have a chance of being solved.

Anyway, have a super sparkly day.

NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.

Imperial Overstrain

An empire can get so large that it drains the center more than it sustains the empire (imperial overstretch). What happens when an already strained empire accelerates the cost of empire in a flailing attempt to enlarge the empire? Amazingly, Russia has a way out of this dilemma yet won't seize it.

Could Russia's apparent reliance on non-Russian cannon fodder open fissures in the rump Russian empire?

Russia’s 2022 re-invasion of Ukraine has damaged not only bilateral relations between the two majority–Eastern Slavic neighbors but also—perhaps inadvertently—destabilized ties, links, goodwill, and mutual trust between the Russian periphery and the center, on the one hand, and between certain ethnic groups within the Russian Federation, on the other.

The Russian military is certainly less effective because of ethnic tensions, it seems. The problem could get much worse. 

Still, in the short run having dead non-ethnic Russian soldiers rather than dead ethnic Russian soldiers may lessen the potential of ethnic Russian civilians openly turning against Putin. 

But that will just delay the reaction and not stop it.

Which could be a problem for the rump Russian empire that may have a long way to go before it stops shrinking:

Russia is squeezing the regions to pay for rebuilding the empire in the west. Which was dumb even before Ukraine prompted at least some Western reaction.

Russia could fragment a third time, I think, if the virtual colonies believe taxation without representation is intolerable.

If that happens, is the Grand Duchy of Moscow far behind?

Can you imagine the kind of money Moscow is going to need to rebuild after this war regardless of the outcome? Are the regions--especially in the resource-rich Far East--going to be eager to send even more of their money for the results Putin got?

And adding to Putin's problem, reminding NATO members why the alliance exists isn't going to help slow down Russia's decline and further fragmentation.

If the Russians had any sense, they'd make peace with their major fossil fuel customers in Europe (plus America) and turn to face the real threat to Russian territorial integrity. This would allow Russia to downgrade their military power facing Europe and reduce the strain on the imperial holdings paying for Putin's pointless struggle in the west.

Sadly, Russia seems only able to use their energy exports as a means of leverage against countries they've made out to be enemies. Germany's hope to use energy trade to forge ties with Russia wasn't dumb--until you factor in Russian paranoia.

Could a Russia bled by its war against Ukraine finally come to its senses and stop pretending that NATO is a threat to Russia?

UPDATE: Russia's rump empire may not survive this war:

What happened to the Russian Empire? It disintegrated at the end of an imperialist war. What happened to the Soviet Union? It disintegrated at the end of the Cold War. What will happen to the Russian Federation?

It does amuse me in a Holy-crap-this-empire-has-nukes sort of way that in college a teaching assistant marked me down for stating the wholly obvious fact that the USSR was an empire. And here we are.

UPDATE: Yeah, good luck with that:

A Russian lawmaker on Wednesday said Moscow will look to repeal its recognition of the independence of former Soviet nations like Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in an attempt to revoke their NATO protections.

That's not how it works. That's not how any of it works.

NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.

The Winter War of 2022: When You Start to Defeat Russia, Defeat Russia

Don't let the Russian military claim it was "stabbed in the back" by failing to help Ukraine defeat Russia's invasion clearly and drive it back. And if you are worried about "humiliating" Russia by helping Ukraine defeat Russia's invasion, that's all on Putin. He can end that worry by withdrawing from his gains made this year while he still has an army willing to fight and die for him.

The war goes on. Russia is still focused on the Severodonetsk salient that includes the last of Luhansk province still held by Ukraine. But Russia's shrinking offensive backed by massive firepower continues to erode Ukrainian troops, territory, and troop morale. Yet Russia is paying a large price to do this.

Russia does seem to be scraping up new units:

[The UK's defence ministry said that] Russia continues to seek to generate combat units to deploy to Ukraine. In recent weeks, Russia probably started preparing to deploy the third battalion from some combat formations, the ministry says, while most brigades normally only committed a maximum of two of their three battalions to operations at any one time.

Third battalions within brigades are often not fully staffed, the MOD notes, and Russia will probably have to rely on new recruits or mobilised reservists to deploy these units to Ukraine.

That's bottom of the barrel stuff. But something beats nothing.

Who can gather a sizable and effective reserve force first to break this stalemated attrition war? Russia is using its own resources to build something--even if it is poorly trained and equipped with old tanks and weapons. But Ukraine apparently relies on NATO to build such a force.

I hope to God that America isn't trying to calibrate aid to Ukraine to finesse a fine diplomatic achievement that prevents Ukraine from winning. Perhaps Ukraine can't win this war. But America should not stop Ukraine from winning.

And don't think that kind of hubris is impossible. In the Syria multi-war, the Obama administration tried to help rebels just enough to push Assad to negotiate (quoting an article):

I’ve written in this space before that the Western efforts to consolidate, arm, and train Syrian rebels have had the greatest impact in the south of the country. There is now mounting new evidence to suggest that these efforts have modestly increased in the last few weeks, though not with the goal of defeating or even debilitating the Assad regime militarily (we can’t have that now, can we?). Rather, the idea is to apply “pressure” on Damascus during the second round of Geneva II negotiations, which began this week, and which the apparently non-pressured Syrian reconciliation minister has already classified as a “failure” waiting to happen.

That pressure failed. Letting your enemy know you won't try to defeat them eases the burden on an enemy tremendously. But the people who tried it are still around and still think highly of their truly stunning intellects. This time, for sure!

But Russia won't feel any gratitude for the West easing the scope of Russia's defeat. The West will get the worst of both worlds: Russia not fully expelled from Ukraine and Russia angry at the West for allegedly denying Russia victory. Indeed, it may not be possible for Putin to make peace:

The geopolitical point is that Russia has failed to take Ukraine or split NATO. The political fact is that Putin has failed. He cannot achieve his strategic goals. He has welded NATO into a solid force it hasn’t been for a long time. More important, he has governed as the final authority on all things. The last is the bog he is caught in. He may blame others, but his country will blame him. That means that unlike the harshest divorce, he cannot concede without destroying himself. He will continue to fight. He has no one to answer to unless the regime evolves. There can be peace only if it is understood by Putin that in due course he will enter history.

As long as Ukraine wants to liberate its territory taken this year, the West must help Ukraine defeat Russia. Russia must be defeated to discourage it from advancing in the west. And then our diplomacy can help Russia pivot to its east to defend Russia's Far East and it's influence Central Asia from Chinese encroachment. We keep asking about what China might do to help Russia as it bleeds in Ukraine for what may a Pyrrhic victory. But what if China sees Russia's stumble as an opportunity to erase a huge example of China's "century of humiliation," as China sees it? 

Bolstering Russia's ability to resist China--if Russia stops its pointless hostility toward NATO--should be the "off ramp" that gets Russia out of Ukrainian territory.

UPDATE: The battle for Snake Island continues: "Satellite imagery adds additioanl evidence to reports that Russia has reinforced its seized outpost on Snake Island with additional surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems." Plus Russia seems to have stationed a landing craft with a SAM vehicle in firing condition south of the island.

HIMARS rockets will be able to hit the island when Ukraine puts them in action. In related news, Ukraine has deployed new Harpoon missiles on the Black Sea Coast.

The battle for Snake Island may determine if Ukraine can export grain by sea.

UPDATE: Any weapon operated by poorly trained troops and commanded by poor quality leaders will look "obsolete." This, however, is interesting:

“The Russian military appears to have dramatically cut the infantry from its units, often with just two to three soldiers available for dismount in infantry fighting vehicles. These are structural issues,” said Kofman, the research program director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses.

Normally you'd have at least 7 infantry in an IFV. Russia is clearly pounding buildings with artillery and direct fire until they are rubble and then occupying the abandoned rubble. Holding what is captured would be harder against serious counter-attacks.

UPDATE: Interesting: 

All three bridges to the embattled city of Severodonetsk have been destroyed, says regional governor Serhiy Haidai.

Is destroying the bridges a sign of Russian weakness? That they are more worried about taking the city from tough Ukrainian resistance than crossing the river after taking the city?

Or does Russia plan something other than a contested river crossing with bridging equipment? Could Russia outflank the river line west of the city? Will Russia try helicopter assaults again?

UPDATE: This attitude from the New York Times baffles me:

After the Russian butchery in Bucha, near Kyiv and in Mariupol, the chances of successful diplomacy appear more remote than ever. It is even unclear what the very term "victory" would mean for either side."

I won't address Putin's ever-shifting justifications for invading Ukraine. But for Ukraine, victory would mean not being occupied by or dominated by Russia, which is willing to commit whatever horrors it is capable of to subjugate Ukrainians. "Unclear," indeed. What morons. 

UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. Russia is pushing hastily trained personnel and pulling out old tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to replace losses. The Russians attacked around the Severodonetsk salient; captured some more of Severdonetsk itself; and likely had some success attacking around Kharkiv. There is ground fighting on the Kherson front, but it is unclear if Ukrainian forces advanced.

You hear more that the Russians are going to gain the edge now. Maybe. Before the war I expected Russia could plow their way to the Dnepr River at a high cost. But Russia lost too many troops trying to stage a victory parade. Their losses forced them to focus on plowing their way forward in the Donbas. That failed and now it is mostly the Severodonetsk salient. 

Perhaps if Russia had started the war taking Ukrainian defenders seriously, my assumption would be closer to accurate. But Russia didn't do that and lost a lot of troops and equipment. Unless NATO abandons its effort to supply Ukraine, there is no reason for me to think Ukraine can't inflict a serious defeat over Russia's depleted and unenthusiastic army and get some kind of victory.

I just don't see the evidence of Russia being on the verge of overwhelming the Ukrainians now. But I haven't seen the Ukrainians ready for the big counter-offensive. I don't have enough information to know which way this war will go at this point. But being at this point of uncertainty over the outcome more than three months into the war is pretty amazing for Ukraine. And even a Russian win at this point will seem fairly hollow.

UPDATE (Tuesday): I've mentioned the force-to-space ratio being pretty low overall. Strategypage writes: "The front lines are over a thousand kilometers long and many areas are lightly controlled and guarded. This often consists of checkpoints on main roads that cross the 'front line.'"

UPDATE: Regarding my comments yesterday that I don't see the growing Russian victory, Russia is resorting to disinformation:

This has become more difficult in the age of cellphones and commercial satellite images. Russia earlier developed an Internet based disinformation capability that can plant fake news all over the Internet where journalists outside Russia look for newsworthy (contrarian) items they use for an essentially pro-Russia article. Get enough of these online or in print and the authors can cite each other if sources are demanded. This disinformation effort is mainly about Ukrainians actually losing the war and suffering large but unverifiable, losses.

If Russian disinformation causes NATO to end or even just lower its aid to Ukraine, it will be a cause of Ukraine's defeat--not Russia's glorious army. 

UPDATE: This author believes Ukraine is doomed. If Russia was capable of waging war at the intensity of the Severodonetsk attacks along the entire front I'd agree with him. But Russia is focused on a small front because they have to from their own shortcomings.

UPDATE: I'm hoping that Ukraine's claims that the West is not sending heavy weapons quickly enough is Ukrainian disinformation to conceal preparations for a counter-offensive.

UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment.  Belarus is acting like it might enter the war but is unlikely due to domestic opposition and because the military is rather poor quality. Russia seems eager to annex conquered territory. Russia is desperate for recruits to replace losses.

Russia continues to attack in the Severodonetsk salient. And Russia is attacking around Kharkiv.

Ukraine is also attacking around Kharkiv. Ukrainian attacks on the Kherson front have pushed forward and seemingly compelled Russians to focus more on defensive moves.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Russia is firing up to 60,000 rounds per day on the Donbas front: 

The Russians are using indiscriminate and overwhelming artillery strikes to grind Ukrainian defenders down, underscoring how the Russian military’s approach to firepower prizes volume over accuracy.

The article confirms my impression of Russian "rubble" tactics that I noted in an earlier update.

I'm sure Russia is focused on measuring inputs and so the results don't match the volume. Studies of World War I Western Front bombardments showed that there was a diminishing returns slope for heavy bombardment.

And how long can Russia keep up this firing pace? Surely, it isn't just Ukraine having supply problems. Right?

UPDATE: The latest American arms commitment to Ukraine. Some of this is new production and not drawn from American stocks.

UPDATE: Actual resistance to tyranny. And yes, distinguishing between partisan and special force efforts is difficult from afar. Although special forces would be trying to set up and help partisan efforts.

UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. Russia continues to assault Ukrainian defenders in Severodonetsk and have interdicted lines of communication with fires. Russia continued attacks mostly on the southern part of the salient, with only a little success. Russia is also trying to push back Ukrainian troops northeast of Kharkiv. Ukraine seems to hold the initiative on the Kherson front--albeit with only shallow advances so far. Russia is reinforcing Snake Island. Ukrainian resistance is hampering Russian efforts to control southern territory occupied earlier in the invasion.

UPDATE (Thursday): Russia doesn't want to mobilize and admit the war isn't going well: "Russia is scrambling to recruit men to fight in Ukraine after major losses in the early months of the war left the army stretched thin and some soldiers disenchanted."

UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. European leaders visiting Ukraine pledged that Ukraine would not be pressured to make concessions to Russia to end the war. 

Mostly static fighting at Kharkiv, the Severodonetsk salient, and the Kherson front continue. Ukraine is preparing a counter-attack near Izyum at the northern base of the salient.

UPDATE (Friday): While much of the headlines today focus on peripheral issues like EU membership or Eurovision, the war continues: "Heavy fighting continues in the Donbas, with Ukrainian forces holding out against massive bombardment in the key city of Syevyerodonetsk and the nearby region as Russian forces seek to complete the encirclement of the area and cut off defenders and civilians left inside the pocket."

UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment:

The Russian military has concentrated the vast majority of its available combat power to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at the expense of other axes of advance and is suffering heavy casualties to do so.

It's like Russia has tunnel vision on the Severodonetsk salient. I'm hoping they get blindsided by the Ukrainians taking advantage of that. Ukraine seems to be more aggressive in small-scale counter-attacks across the front. Does this telegraph more?

Ukraine also sank a tugboat resupplying Snake Island.

UPDATE (Saturday): Russia fights a near peer and not a victim. And: "A fundamental problem with Russia is that they are enthusiastically paranoid, seeing all neighbors as potential threats or territorial acquisition opportunities. As bad habits go, that has been a hard one to shed." Russia is getting a whack with the clue bat in Ukraine. Will it help?

UPDATE: An interesting interview. Of note regarding Ukraine:

They just don't have enough in reserve in terms of trained soldiers or equipment to make a big gain when they poke a hole in the Russian lines.

That's been my concern. Is Ukraine holding the Donbas front as thinly as they can risk in order to build up that kind of multi-brigade reserve? Or is Ukraine pushing everything they can generate into the line to barely hold on? 

UPDATE: Russian strategic warfare: "Three Russian missiles have reportedly hit an oil depot in the central region of Dnipropetrovsk, says the regional governor."

UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment:

As ISW previously assessed, Russian forces will likely be able to seize Severodonetsk in the coming weeks, but at the cost of concentrating most of their available forces in this small area. Other Russian operations in eastern Ukraine—such as efforts to capture Slovyansk and advance east of Bakhmut—have made little progress in the past two weeks. Russian forces are continuing to fight to push Ukrainian troops away from occupied frontiers north of Kharkiv City and along the Southern Axis, but have not made significant gains in doing so, thus leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counteroffensive and partisan pressure.

Russian morale is still shaky. And some BTGs appear to be shadows of their original strength, nothing more than symbols on a Russian map.

UPDATE (Sunday): Russia says it has destroyed Western artillery and vehicles in the Kherson front region. Does this suggest that this is where most of the Western heavier equipment is going? Or am I connecting dots based on the picture I expect to see?

UPDATE: The latest ISW update. Fighting continues around Kharkiv.

The Russian offensive in the Severodonetck salient is pairing heavy artillery fire with "likely" weak infantry units. The front remained fairly static despite heavy fighting.

Ukraine has counter-attacked in the Zaporizhia section of the southern front, forcing Russia to divert troops there.

Local Ukrainian counter-attacks on the Kherson front continue. Eventually Kherson itself might be within reach.

ISW believes Russian artillery is firing on Donetsk city and pretending Ukraine is doing it to turn people in that Russian-occupied Donbas city toward Russia. In addition, Russia and their Donbas hand puppets will conduct unjustified war crimes trials for Ukrainian troops who surrendered at Mariupol. I imagine this will harden Ukrainian troops against surrendering in all but the most dire circumstances.

Weekend Data Dump

FFS, is our government trying to kill our economy and bolster Putin's war? 

Fifty killed in an attack on a Catholic church service in Nigeria. The usual suspects would be Islamist jihadis. But we don't know yet. There are other sources of violence in Nigeria so I won't assume I know.

Fighting fire with fire: "The U.S. and South Korean militaries launched eight ballistic missiles into the sea Monday in a show of force matching a North Korean missile display a day earlier that extended a provocative streak in weapons demonstrations."

It's almost as if it is cause and effect (via Instapundit): "For the past decade, America’s urban centres have been increasingly run by ‘progressive’ activists. Yet today, as US cities reel from collapsed economies, rising crime and pervasive corruption, there’s something of a revolt brewing[.]" I eagerly await our media and Democratic elites explaining how these fearful gun buyers are white supremacist-adjacent, or something.

Sometimes I wonder if all the rumors of Putin's illnesses or even death are part of a Western disinformation campaign to undermine Putin's authority. The reports are too good to be true for those with optimistic hopes for who would take over. Still, everyone dies eventually.

No! Way! "Here are the states that the Census acknowledged it overcounted: Hawaii, Delaware, Rhode Island, Minnesota, New York, and Massachusetts." And: "Here are the states that the Census acknowledged it undercounted: Texas, Illinois, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Arkansas." And darn the luck, this was admitted too late to do anything about Congressional reapportionment of seats.

China did this in international airspace: "Australia on Sunday said a Chinese fighter jet carried out dangerous maneuvers threatening the safety of one of its maritime surveillance planes over the South China Sea and forcing it to return to the base."

The Zumwalt-class destroyer has failed. The system failures are unforgivable and sadly reflect the problems in our shipbuilding industry. But the original purpose was stupid. Yet the ships can function as test beds for the future. And their technology will live on in future ships.

Sure, this is bad. But China has a long history of ties with mullah-run Iran. The major American distraction is bizarrely thinking we can make Iran our friend by forging a new nuclear deal.

Germany changes: "German lawmakers today passed a €100 billion (U.S. $107 billion) defense budget boost, initiating a major spending spree over several years[.]"

Instead of becoming subject experts, our elite journalists would rather enforce woke conformity on Twitter. It smells like woke spirit. Learn to code, you intellectually inbred yokels. (Wokels?)

I don't believe Russians honestly answer opinion poll questions. But surely Russians who believe the war is going well will wonder why the war drags on with high casualties, no?

If you want a real test of austere roads for the Air Force’s Agile Combat Employment (ACE) doctrine, try landing on some in southeast Michigan: "Northern Agility 22-1 will showcase A-10 Thunderbolt II, AFSOC MC-12W and U-28A aircraft conducting agile combat employment at Sawyer International Airport and on a closed portion of M-28 east of Munising."

"Fictional aggressor" in the Baltic Sea during the BALTOPS exercises? They spelled "Russia" wrong: "With the decks of the massive amphibious assault ship Kearsarge loaded with MV-22 Osprey and AH-1 Cobra rotary-wing aircraft, U.S. Marines and allied forces were getting ready to retake islands from a fictional aggressor in a war exercise showcasing allied firepower in Northern Europe." 

If it keeps me from dying from Covid, this is great: "Our research shows that the level of antibodies in those previously infected increases for the first 100 days post-infection and then gradually declines over the next 500 days and beyond." Via Instapundit.

California effed itself on purpose and too many want America to follow that path. Tip to Instapundit. 

Johnson won the Tory vote of confidence 211-148. I have to say, no-confidence votes in parliamentary systems seem like murder-suicides. Won't inattentive voters see that the opposition doesn't like the prime minister and a sizable fraction of his own supporters don't like him or her? So why should they support the prime minister and party in the next election

Can the volume of grain exports out of Ukraine by train to non-Ukrainian ports save the harvest and help prevent food shortages abroad? Volume is going up. Will that accelerate? I mean, the grain went to Ukrainian ports by train, right? A far shorter distance, to be sure. But fingers crossed that prioritizing that shift can do the job.

Leftists said Hugo Chavez was a socialist while he had the inertia of the wrecked capitalist system working well enough. But once socialism destroyed the economy? Well, then it wasn't real socialism. How very convenient for socialist fanboys (and girls) everywhere.

Israel's balancing act between Russia and Ukraine.

Russia and China worry about Starlink. China thinks about destroying the system. Russia's brain drain limits its threats to murder. But when fully deployed, Starlink will have 4,000 depleted satellites per year that could be used as anti-satellite weapons if either country goes to war with Starlink.

Well I didn't see that coming: "A U.S. service member has been identified as a possible suspect in an April explosion that injured several U.S. troops at a base in eastern Syria." Although I did say sabotage was more disturbing than indirect fire as a cause.

I've expected Syria's Kurds to cut a deal with Syria for some time: "The U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led forces in northern Syria said Tuesday that they will turn to the government in Damascus for support should Turkey go ahead with its threat to launch a new incursion into the war-torn country." Will Assad grant autonomy or demand more control as the price for help. I assume our media won't screech about Biden "abandoning" the Kurds to the Turks.

Is the M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams the best tank out there? Without an active protection system that status might not be significant. Russia's vaunted Armata is not even mentioned. For good reason. Still, how long can the old Abrams design be updated?

Note this: "For years, Chinese officials have been quietly lobbying their Russian counterparts to cut arms sales to India, which has had a sometimes bloody border dispute with Beijing." Which is why I don't want to pressure India into cutting ties to Russia. Why should we do China's work for them?

Bullshit Alert. Will "Europe" get serious about defense and build up a EU military to "complement" NATO? First we need to check definitions. "Europe" is not the same as the EU. Geographic "Europe" is in fact strengthening NATO. Second, the EU version of Europe will never complement NATO--only destroy it. But the threat of expanded war rather than bureaucratic maneuvering motivates European states now. The EU should work on procurement and other internal transportation  and infrastructure issues that NATO doesn't already address. If the EU wants to complement NATO rather than destroy it, that is.

Hard to argue with this: "There wasn’t much in the almost 50 years that Biden was redefining mediocrity in government that would have given any discerning person a reason to think that this presidency would be otherwise." But it still shocks me that the media hasn't been able to fluff his presidency they way they did his 2020 campaign.

This seems like a gross mis-use of the Defense Production Act. Good grief, it's worse than I thought.

Neutrality makes no sense for Ukraine. Agreed. It would not be Ukraine's choice. It would be Russia's choice for Ukraine. And once that power is conceded, Russia will increase the pressure and subversion to pull Ukraine into its orbit and then control. It will be the path that Belarus has already forged.

Cambodia has been a loyal vassal to China for many decades: "China is secretly building a naval facility in Cambodia for the exclusive use of its military, with both countries denying that is the case and taking extraordinary measures to conceal the operation, Western officials said." How long before China demands naval bases on Russian territory, too? 

American forces launched a strike on al-Shabaab jihadis in Somalia. To be fair, jihadis who need to be killed are there.

This seems like a mistake: "The Marine Corps is shuttering its combat gear storage program in the Middle East as it shifts attention to Europe and the Pacific." The Persian Gulf is one place where a few Marines can achieve a lot.

The war in Ukraine is trench warfare in the Donbas: "Fighting in Ukraine has settled into a rhythm reminiscent of trench warfare in World War One, says a military analyst." That's what happens when the fancy stuff runs low. Still, I'm somewhat surprised in one sense. I believed the force-to-space ratio was too low for such static fighting, although I believe I made an exception for poor terrain--which includes cities. And that calculation was also for the entire front. By fighting on such a narrow front as the Severodonetsk salient, Russia allows Ukraine to hold the front densely enough to prevent a breakthrough despite being outnumbered and pushed back. And Russia's depleted infantry adds to that Russian problem. If Ukraine manages a counter-offensive, we'll see if Russian trench systems help Russia as much.

I'm not shy in my criticisms of the annoying French government. I've also noted that the French military is actually professional and good to have on our side. Not as often, I admit. So let me salute the French military for this D-Day tradition that makes me think of France as an ally notwithstanding their politicians. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Colinford Mattis and Urooj Rahman passed out Molotov Cocktails and used one to firebomb a police car during riots. But these credentialed leftist foot soldiers will get off lightly. I have to hand it to the DOJ. By refusing to charge them with terrorist crimes, on paper it looks like no leftists are domestic terrorists. Ah, rule of law! It was nice to know you. Some really are more equal than others. Via Instapundit.

Moqtada al-Sadr is having problems forming a government in Iraq because enough people don't trust him. Supposedly he isn't an insurrectionist now. Also, anti-Iran sentiment remains strong in Iraq. I remain happy that ballots and not bullets are the means to form governments in Iraq. Baby steps.

Connecticut collided with that undersea mountain long before that moment. The Navy has problems.

We're from the government and we're here to [ ... checks notes ...] make things worse.

A conservative plot to undermine their credibility couldn't do a better job than staff and management are doing to themselves.

Ex-leader Merkel won't apologize for her policy of ''engaging" Russia. It's not the outreach that was the problem as much as it was letting Putin bend Germany over a pipeline and have his way with the country.

Well that was unfortunate timing for Sweden.

The United States can't outbuild China in a surface fleet race. So don't. I agree that a Missiles First policy is a better way to survive the short run. Of course, some temporary hulls might be of use to bridge the hulls gap. And the author's point about rebuilding American shipyard capacity is a good idea for the long run.

The war goes on in Afghanistan: "Taliban forces have been locked for months in a shadowy on-again, off-again battle with opposition fighters based in the Panjshir Valley. Just a few hours’ drive north of Kabul, the province has long been an anti-Taliban stronghold and remains the only significant pocket of resistance to the group since the fall of Kabul last August." Some Americans always think we can "end" a war if we stop fighting.

This is one area where Russia has improved their horrible early war performance: "Russia’s use of electronic warfare in eastern Ukraine provides a preview to U.S. troops about what it will be like to fight an adversary that can intercept and jam their communications, sever all links to their drones flying overhead, and blind their radars and other sensors." I was stunned that we weren't seeing these capabilities early on. Defending against it has long been a problem for the U.S.

A fleeting moment of lucidity within the left or a successful whack from the clue bat? "San Francisco voters moved decisively to recall controversial District Attorney Chesa Boudin, ousting him in a Tuesday vote that is sure to reverberate nationwide."

I look forward to the June 8th (J8) Congressional committee on Democratic incitement to political murder. Broadcast media-wide in prime time, natch. We'll at least have a "national conversation" on hate, right?

China and its vassal Russia vetoed sanctions against China's little pet psycho despite a looming North Korean nuclear test. As if North Koreans don't hate China, too.

China's civilian naval auxiliaries prey on neighbors. When will targets allow privateers to fight back? On the bright side, china is now worried that its civilian invasion fleet might face problems sailing to Taiwan.

HIMARS and GMLRS. And a side trip to anti-tank missiles.

Does the Solomon Islands government expect Chinese security forces to be the ultimate protection against angry people?

The myth of China's maritime "insurgency." Remember, saying insurgents and the people are like fish and the sea is not meant to be taken literally. China commands the irregulars and their actions might better be called subliminal warfare. And to be fair, too many writers don't understand the difference between insurgents and irregulars on land, let alone trying to translate that to the sea. I'm not, however, going to agree with the assertion that the war in Iraq was an expensive failure. One, we won. And two, we spend money to avoid spending lives. Don't use the money spent for a good reason as evidence for calling the war a failure. As for defeats in Afghanistan and South Vietnam? Well, those defeats were caused by our government's choices to lose the wars--the Biden administration was very clear that it only expected a "decent interval" between leaving and defeat as we supposedly got in South Vietnam. We lost. But not from failures to defeat insurgents. And more to the point, when the author's correct point is that China isn't practicing a naval insurgency, why even bother to digress into an irrelevant assertion that we aren't very good at land counter-insurgency?

Mexico's U.S.-backed "kingpin" strategy of trying to decapitate the leadership of major drug cartels is undermined by the fragmentation of the criminal gangs that are immune to the loss of kingpins. And the strategy contributed to the fragmentation. I'm honestly shocked that Mexico is holding together as a state.

Being a mercenary is not a war crime. Is Russia happy with this hand puppet ruling given its heavy use of the Wagner Group and Russian mercenaries?

Oh what fresh Hell is this? "The United States has relied almost entirely on China — and to a lesser extent Russia — in recent years to procure a critical mineral that is vital to producing ammunition." The mineral is antimony. What I want to know is whether we rely on them because we don't have it--what's the status of that Idaho mine that stopped bringing it up in 1997--or because it was cheap and convenient. 

Buckle up, the economic ride will be rough. I certainly hope this is wrong. Via Instapundit. 

Conservative Supreme Court justices die in darkness. Not content to undermine our institutions and traditions, some want to kill them.

White Covid death rates are now higher than minority rates. Please note that while the government had "outreach" efforts to persuade minorities to get the vaccine, the government and media demonized conservative whites who didn't get the vaccine.

Via Instapundit, the Earth's magnetic polarity isn't reversing. Bad luck, that. One fewer thing to blame on climate change.

Putin says attacking Ukraine is all about returning "original territories" to Russia. A lot of countries from Central Asia to the Caucasus, Romania, Poland, the Baltic states, Belarus, and Finland should worry. Maybe Putin should consider whether his aggressive folly will return Russia to its original territory. That outcome is more likely than reaching Hadrian's Wall.

Will corruption kill Nigeria? Seriously, uh oh: "Nigeria could see widespread unrest in the next 12-to-18 months, ..."

NATO acts like Churchill and Chamberlain in the face of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Who wins out? Putin counts on the latter.

If you wonder why I drone on about rule of law: "The United States must get serious about its own survival as a republic dedicated to protecting individual life and liberty." I used to spend far more time pushing for that abroad. Now I worry much more about defending it here. The stench of banana republic wafts across the land from the January 6th committee televised show trial.

Revisiting the clusterfucks of the American skedaddle debacle in Afghanistan. We took a dive and threw this war to the Taliban for no good reason that I can figure out.

Japan has taken a hard line on Russia since Putin invaded Ukraine this year.

Western support has made Ukraine's special forces larger and able to operate in Russian rear areas, as irregulars, and in information warfare. But no word on what I assume is their role in assisting resistance in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory. Also, is it beyond reasonable to think they operate inside Russia, Crimea, or in the so-called Donbas states Russia created in 2014?

Mannerheim Line 2.0 begins: "Finland's government plans to amend border legislation to allow the building of barriers on its eastern frontier with Russia, it said on Thursday, in a move to strengthen preparedness against hybrid threats amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine." Right now the worry is that Russia will "fire" Middle Eastern migrants at it. But anti-tank obstacles and fortifications are the logical end point.

Pain (via Instapundit): "U.S. consumer inflation reached an 8.6% annual rate in May, its highest level in more than four decades as surging energy and food prices pushed prices higher."

 

The Chinese Communist Party will never stop lying about the Xi Jinping Covid-19 virus that exploded out of Wuhan to infect the world: "China on Friday attacked the theory that the coronavirus pandemic may have originated as a leak from a Chinese laboratory as a politically motivated lie, after the World Health Organization recommended in its strongest terms yet that a deeper probe is needed into whether a lab accident may be to blame." Our role in funding China's lab work on the virus is as yet not fully explored.

"Shrinkflation" is an example of what happens when a measurement ("inflation" in this case) becomes so politically important that those being measured undermine the very foundation of the measurement.

The Democrats' January 6th committee started prime time hearings to demonstrate that the most heavily armed segment of America's population launched an unarmed insurrection at the Capitol Building. This should be fascinating.

The Capitol Building riot was terrible. I was horrified. It was not, however, an insurrection. Did some administration officials react poorly? Yes. But that isn't an insurrection, either. And by treating this riot as an insurrection to justify using the power of the state to persecute opponents, Democrats have acted worse if your concern is the safety of our rule-of-law democracy. Unlike them I don't have acceptable and unacceptable forms of domestic political violence depending on the ideology. Democrats should be ashamed of themselves for this spectacle. TDR has already discovered film and a transcript, of course. 

I've long thought China's navy isn't as good as its shiny new ships portray. I still think that is true, yet wonder if America's qualitative edge in leadership and training is too eroded to make up for Chinese numbers. Remember that China will control the start of a war and can maximize their assets. And China is close while we are far.

Just ... wow. And also, ef the media. Their bias takes so many forms.

The Axis of Evil expands: "Iran and Venezuela signed a 20-year deal on cooperation between the two allies subject to US sanctions during a visit Saturday to the Islamic republic by Venezuela's President Nicholas Maduro."

I'm going to be honest, I'm not too worried about Russia's military build up in their Arctic region. A bunch of troops huddled in drafty huts praying the wood stove doesn't break down is more likely to the be result of Moscow's focus. 

Democrats complain that Trump didn't call in the National Guard on January 6, 2021. Wait. What? Democrats think the military is infiltrated by white supremacists. Wouldn't Democrats have accused Trump of calling in the troops to support his so-called insurrection? My question is rhetorical, of course.

China's subliminal war against the Philippines and international law continues: "The Philippines has lodged a new diplomatic protest against China's maritime activities within Manila's 200-mile exclusive economic zone, the foreign ministry said late on Friday." Before it is too late, the Philippines will have to fight--or find other ways to resist China's slow conquest.

Are aircraft carriers too vulnerable to get close to Taiwan because of new Chinese anti-ship weapons? This was true before this development.. Although distance may not be enough protection to break the kill chains. Still, while I don't think we need as many carriers in a network-centric world because they are too vulnerable and represent too much concentrated power, for power projection missions they remain useful.

To be fair, the Biden administration probably thinks we deserve it: "Attacks by Iranian proxies against bases housing U.S. military personnel in Iraq and Syria are increasing, U.S. officials say, and Washington has not responded with force since 2021."

Putin wants to hide the scale of Russian troops losses in his invasion of Ukraine. So hiding the dead doesn't seem like an outrageous claim. Does Putin think he can hide the losses until after he declares victory? 

I really hate McAfee. And perhaps Dell. Or maybe I should be mad at Microsoft. I cannot remove the program from my computer. It even made me go through the uninstall process before telling me the program can't be removed. And it continues to annoy me by asking me to buy their services. Even taking over web sites I'm reading to do so.

Maybe if our military focused on flying and maintaining its aircraft rather than embracing BS policies we wouldn't have aircraft dropping from the sky. Our senior leadership believes in too many substitutes for victory.

LOL:

LOL:

Mowing the jihadi grass in Somalia is the only thing we can do right now. Ultimately the Moslem world has to resolve its civil war by defeating and de-legitimizing the Islamist thinking that spawns jihadis. And don't give up on democracy as the best solution in the long run.

Yes, give Ukraine a chance to win. Remember, we aren't forcing Ukraine to fight Russia. And the blame for the war lies on Putin's shoulders.

The rising sun of Japan. China is shocked by this development?

Deadly double standards. 

The Starlink "threat" plans to get better.

Okay, who put on the beer goggles and slept with the ugly guest? And will future humans suffer for what you did this weekend? Via Instapundit.

And Now For Something Completely Different

But that's when the Blue Check stung me. And I wrote a serious meme. With revenge and doubt. Tonight we smoke them out. You are ahead by a century (this is our life).