China has more territorial ambitions.
The Philippines is the target of the moment:
China has apparently decided to undertake a major operation to force the Philippines out of Pagasa Island, the second largest of the Spratly Islands and also claimed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam. The Philippines is the only claimant with a settlement and military garrison on the island. The Chinese are using non-lethal (most of the time) force to drive everyone else out the South China Sea islands they claim. The last time China used force (against Vietnam) was in the 1970s, before China became dependent on the sea lanes that pass through the South China Sea to the Middle East, Africa and Australia ...
China created the current crisis over who controls Pagasa Island and nearby sandbars. Since 2019 China has sent a record number of ships to block access to disputed islands, especially, Pagasa. Most of these are Chinese fishing boats pretending to be fishing but in reality, are members of the Chinese naval militia which is now composed of about a thousand ships that are paid regularly to be available when called upon to carry out paramilitary duties, usually in the South China Sea. China insists it has not ordered its naval militia fishing boats to physically block Filipino commercial or military ships from getting to Pagasa. Despite that pledge it has become more difficult for Filipino fishing boats to operate in areas they had long worked. China has been threatening to cut off access to Pagasa since 2014 but has never followed through, possibly because the Philippines has often stationed a warship off Pagasa.
The Philippines will need to take the initiative at some point in the face of China's relentless pressure.
Escalating to a battle that the Philippines can win and digging in on an island, while essentially daring China to reverse its losses with a war is one option. Would China risk war with America to really bring in their fleet to teach Manila a lesson?
Another option is building up island outposts in defense of the Philippines' land claims through the Chinese naval blockades by airlift provided by American and other allies in a Berlin Airlift (East).
The Philippines isn't taking action yet. But at least Duterte isn't brain dead:
For a second time, the Philippine government has paused plans to terminate part of its Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S.
After meeting with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, the country’s secretary of foreign affairs in a video posted to Twitter on Monday announced the government’s decision to halt plans to withdraw from the Philippines-United States Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA).
Or I suppose the Philippines could hope that China will abandon its territorial ambitions.
