Is North Korea an existential threat to South Korea?
This author calls North Korea an existential threat to South Korea:
[North Korea] still possesses the fourth largest army in the world, which is postured for offensive operations. The citizens of Seoul live in the shadow of artillery and rockets that can bring terrible devastation and suffering upon them. The regime possesses a full range of weapons of mass destruction that supports not only its blackmail diplomacy but will be used as force multipliers to try to defeat the ROK and U.S. militaries should Kim order an attack.
While I agree the threat is enough to justify robust US-ROK training, North Korea is not getting stronger, as the author claims.
The fourth largest army in the world is postured for starving.
If North Korea bombards Seoul, South Korea and America can strike the minority of long-range systems capable of doing it from inside North Korea.
If North Korea wants to use the vast majority of their artillery they have to advance across the DMZ and move their artillery within range of Seoul. Making them easier to destroy. And there is no guarantee the North Korean army can make and hold an advanced position to support the artillery barrage.
Indeed, the North Korean army is so rotted away I suspect South Korea could carve out a "no-launch zone" north of the DMZ.
The correlation of forces is shifting dramatically.
Hell, if North Korea tried to push south, the Chinese might decide the time is right for a stab in the back. China might invade and go after North Korea's nuclear facilities and weapons just to deprive America an excuse to advance to the Yalu River.
As for the full range of WMD? Yes, North Korea has chemical weapons and biological weapons. But are many still good? Will they be enough? Will they hurt North Korean troops trying to advance as much? Will America reply with small nukes? Or even just a massive PGM offensive?
As for nukes, North Korea surely has nuclear devices. But they don't have nuclear missiles and they may not have many--if any--nuclear bombs. Which have to get through air defenses.
And America would nuke North Korea in return.
North Korea is an existential threat to North Korea. But train just in case. Even if North Koreans aren't better than I think, or if we can't imagine the reasons why North Korea would start a war it will absolutely lose, it is better to win with fewer casualties and faster.
