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Consequences: "Due to his administration’s passivity, Afghanistan has become a forgotten nation. Worse, under the Taliban’s rule, it remains a nexus of transnational terrorism. ... The absence of American counterterrorism leadership has forced Afghanistan’s near neighbours to engage with the Taliban[.]"
The "island" was destroyed: "A major fire, which may still be ongoing, has broken out on the former Soviet Kiev class aircraft carrier Minsk, which has been rotting away in a man-made lagoon just off a stretch of the Yangtze River in China for years now." A strange ending.
Our European presence is about to go to five destroyers: "The first of two additional U.S. Navy destroyers the Pentagon plans to
deploy to Europe to expand NATO sea power will pull in to Spain sometime
in the fall[.]" In 1980 we had 28 warships in 6th Fleet. It's mostly a phantom fleet now.
The Army is modernizing its factories: "The Organic Industrial Base comprises 23 depots, arsenals and ammunition plants owned by the government."
Please don't call it a domino effect. Please don't call it a domino effect: "Preventing a forceful takeover of Taiwan by China is strategically important to America because the 'knock-on' effects of such a conflict would foment global chaos and misery, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said[.]" Whew!
Because China's existing and expanding missile arsenal is stabilizing? "China expressed its 'very dramatic' alarm over a mid-range missile system that the U.S. military recently deployed to the Philippines, and warned it could destabilize the region." May I express my very dramatic not-caring?
This is getting out of hand: "Chinese and Philippine coast guard ships collided at sea, damaging at least two vessels, in an encounter early Monday near a new flashpoint in their increasingly alarming confrontations in the disputed South China Sea." And China lies.
Keep out: "U.S. and South Korean troops kicked off a large-scale exercise Monday aimed at strengthening their combined defense capabilities against nuclear-armed North Korea, which again accused the allies of practicing an invasion." Despite that decades-old accusation, it's no longer preposterous.
AUKUS proceeds: "In Australia, U.S. submarine tender Emory S. Land pulled into HMAS Stirling naval base, Western Australia on Friday, marking its seventh port visit in Australia since the ship left its homeport of Guam on May 17, stated a Navy release."
Although the Houthi anti-shipping campaign is ostensibly about punishing Israel: "Costs for operators and prices for customers changed very little. The only real loser is Egypt whose revenue from Suez Canal tolls has sharply declined." Which means its really about Iran attacking Saudi Arabia.
Just give the bikers sabres and go full stupid: "armed Russian dirt bike mounted attackers were shot to pieces by the aimed firepower of the stationary [Ukrainian defenders]."
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, "which has dragged on ineffectively for over two years, has invited scrutiny of Russia’s military machine." As I predicted on the eve of war.
Is this a problem? "EU Initiative to Arm Ukraine: Beset by Allegations of Mismanagement and Corruption[.]" Sure, it's a problem for Ukraine. But helping Ukraine is lower down the EU's priority list.
Huh: "Military experts have suggested to Fox News Digital that it remains a distinct possibility Iran could declare itself a nuclear power this year with the United States' political future uncertain amid a tightly contested presidential election." If Iran announces enrichment capability, it already has nukes.
Air Force security guards returned fire at drive-by shooters at an entry to a Texas air base. Well that's disturbingly new. Say, guess where we taught Ukrainian pilots English? If Russians slipped across our unguarded border to do this, is that enough to protect the border?
Preparing to battle across the electromagnetic spectrum in northeastern lower peninsula Michigan.
Extraterritoriality: "the European Union may succeed in curtailing American freedom to an extent that the Axis powers could not have imagined. They may win, and our leaders have not said a thing yet about it." Our permit and license for free speech would be enough if our government tells the proto-empire to ef off.
A Russian speaker in Havana visited TDR and had particular interest in this DOD press release. Hmm.
That is just the beginning of what Russia owes Ukraine: "The Czech Republic will use some of the interest earned on Russian assets frozen in the European Union to buy hundreds of thousands more artillery shells for Ukraine, the Czech Defence Ministry said on Tuesday." And spare me the Versailles Treaty nonsense.
Pain: "Inside Ukraine, Russia has switched from attacking Ukrainian military forces to going after civilian infrastructure. This reduces the habitability of Ukraine and forces more Ukrainians to leave their homeland. This is another example of the old Roman adage, “create a desert and call it peace”." Yeah.
Strategersky. Vladolini still impresses, eh?
Hezbollah could strike American soil. Well, duh. But how dare you criticize Smart Diplomacy!®
From the "Well, Duh" files: "The Taliban continue to face a myriad of problems they are either unable
or unwilling to solve. While they are secure in the short term, this
may threaten to undermine the group’s hold on power in the coming years." But America decided to send aid rather than keep fighting. RIP R2P.
Do Iran's proxies want to die in larger numbers? "Iran projects power through a web of allied militias that it influences
with money and weapons. But as the region sits on the brink of a wider
conflict, the degree to which it can rely on its partners will be tested
as never before." And how does Iran escape retribution?
China can't just turn on the baby fire hose after throttling the flow to a trickle for decades. And this result of that one-child policy breaks my heart: "an estimated 20 million baby girls 'disappeared' due to sex-selective abortions or infanticide[.]" My God.
Oddly, the story does not name the group: "An active-duty soldier based in North Carolina has been indicted on charges of having lied to military authorities about his association with a group that advocated overthrowing the U.S. government and of trafficking firearms."
The flanks get together: "The foreign and defense ministers of India and Japan Tuesday held security talks in New Delhi, aiming to bolster their strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific as they seek to counter China’s increasingly assertive economic and military activities in the region."
Worst-case: "In a classified document approved in March, the president ordered U.S. forces to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China and North Korea." Russia shouldn't assume who China aims its nukes at, of course.
Shoot, communicate, move on out: "The Army is restructuring its signal battalions as advancements in technology and a laser-focus on its network dovetail with a shift from brigade to division-centric combat plans." Because the big boys are back in town.
It would be nice to know if JLOTS work or if non-military objectives forced inappropriate use: "Just weeks after the U.S. military dismantled its aid pier off the Gaza Strip, ending its mission there, the Pentagon’s internal watchdog has launched an investigation into the capability used to build the pier."
It does keep Russian air defense pinned for internal defense: "Moscow came under one of the largest attacks by Ukrainian drones since the start of fighting in 2022, Russian authorities reported Wednesday, saying they destroyed all of those headed toward the capital."
Disagreement with Congress over how the Pentagon should prepared to ramp up defense production. Once I'd have sided with the Pentagon. But I've lost confidence in their judgment. Earn it back, I say.
Tanks: "Hungary is replacing its Cold War era force of 164 T-72 tanks with 38 Leopard 2 tanks. NATO has no guidelines for how many tanks each member must maintain but the total number of tanks maintained by all member nations is 4.600. Most of these are the 2,500 U.S. M1A1 tanks."
If we don't help the Philippines win at the white hull level, the fight will go to the gray hull level: "Recent collisions between Chinese and Philippine ships in the South China Sea reflect Beijing’s aggressive behavior in the region and is clearly meant to test Manila’s relationship with Washington, experts say."
The Navy could use land-based air power help: "The Air Force will send units from across the United States to the Pacific next summer for an exercise designed to test the way it plans to deploy forces in a potential conflict with China."
Et tu, Air Force? "The radar update is not going well, and the engine replacement plan has encountered difficulties, too. These problems have a government watchdog agency concerned that the B-52J has become a money pit."
Finland's defeat in 1940 is a template for Ukraine? "Yet today, the world remembers Finland as bravely fending off the behemoth next door, as they will the Ukrainians ..." Maybe. But Russia was invaded by Germany the next year; lost 20 million people; then had a Cold War with America. Kind of distracted, eh?
It may be a large aviation platform of some sort: "A state-owned Chinese shipbuilder said it's debuted the design of a 'mothership' for its coast guard."
Via Instapundit, you didn't build that. Xi Jinping is following North Korea's precedent.
How will Iran attack? "IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ali Fadavi warned on August 20 that Iran will 'definitely' retaliate against Israel 'at the suitable time and place.' Fadavi also warned that Israel 'will be punished more severely than before[.]'" Will any proxy take a spear for the Iran Team?
Iran intends to fight for Iraq: "Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to resume attacks targeting US forces in order to expel the United States from the Middle East." Will America wage Phase IX of the Iraq War?
Are enemy military's worse than they appear. I hope so: "Arizona State University’s Center for American Institutions (CAI) recently released a report called 'Civic Education in the Military.' This document questions the value of DEI in military education and training ... The overall assessment is bleak."
Reports of Ukrainian FPV drones causing most casualties likely is not from drone superiority but from ongoing artillery ammunition shortages: "The most recent allotment of US aid to Ukraine is undoubtably insufficient to address the ongoing artillery disparity between Russian and Ukrainian forces[.]"
Sadly for the Sudanese, they aren't the Queen of the Victim Prom: "Because of more than a year of violence, about 11 million Sudanese have been driven from their homes. Combat is currently occurring in at least 80 percent of Sudan." Why is so much attention focused on the self-destructive Palestinians?
Still, the Russians aren't moping about pining for an "exit strategy": "Russian officials are planning on military reforms after the war in Ukraine is over. The major problem is none of the Russian planners can agree on when the war will end. The Russians are unsure how to end the war."
I wasn't happy with Trump's plan, but it was superior to what we did: "The Trump administration planned to withdraw, but in order to support the pro-U.S. Afghan government, the U.S. would keep the huge Bagram airbase as a logistical hub and intelligence post."
Maduro will always gain western supporters by promising "true socialism": "Venezuela is at a crossroads, with the government of strongman Nicolas Maduro doubling down on his disputed reelection victory and the opposition vowing to resist 'to the end.'"
China appears to have a new conventionally powered submarine. Subs have long been a major advantage for America. Is China closing the gap?
Meanwhile in the Red Sea: "The latest strikes across the Israel-Lebanese border came as a Greek-flagged oil tanker was set ablaze in the Red Sea as a result of suspected rocket fire by Yemen’s Houthis." If only there was one problem whose solving could alleviate many regional problems.
News from 1913: "the Balkans — the powder keg of Europe — is now in meltdown." With a 2024 twist: "And the Russia- China-Iran troika is behind it."
Fear: "Taiwan’s Cabinet, the Executive Yuan, this week ratified a record defense budget of NT$647 billion, or US$20.2 billion, meant to help defend Taiwan against the prospect of a Chinese invasion." Wisdom still requires much more.
A line in the sea: "A U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer steamed through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday, the Navy’s first transit of the waterway in months and the fourth this year."
NATO believes Russia will lose because: "the NATO alliance provides Ukraine with far more military resources than Russia produces and can do it for a longer time than Russia can handle. The NATO coalition represents a huge economic capacity equal to nearly half the global GDP." I mentioned that.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "“I would feel more confident if we had a more robust active base defense” to safeguard those smaller operating locations that would be used under a concept called Agile Combat Employment[.]"
Oh, boo hoo: "With few exceptions, newspapers’ front pages no longer contain headlines on Sudan. The genocide and famine — which we knew was coming at least since February — have not mobilized celebrities and political leaders." No matter how many chances Palestinians blow, they demand attention.
Russia isn't using its huge glide bombs inside Russia because it is afraid of hitting friendly targets. This highlights that Russia is bombarding Ukrainians from the air rather than providing close air support to its troops in contact with Ukrainian forces.
More American aid to Ukraine. Still no new armored fighting vehicles.
Russia is having problems finding warm bodies: "This led to the recent practice of army recruiting officials raiding businesses looking for Russian men or foreign workers who have avoided registering their status with the government." How long can the facade of a growing horde be maintained?
This author denies carriers are obsolete. He says sure, we could lose one. But the Navy is prepared. And they boost allied morale. I say prepared for what? They don't have to sink to be lost. Morale would suffer if we lose just one. I also say they aren't obsolete--as long as you aren't arguing apples and oranges.
All not for one: "Russia’s closest allies within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)–Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan–have provided neither military nor political backing, leaving Moscow isolated in [the Winter War of 2022]." They can look elsewhere. Strategersky.
Israel's small, reusable, Firefly helicopter drone for their infantry. One battery can be removed to add a warhead. Which is its last use, obviously.
Hadn't heard this: "[Ukraine joining NATO] would be a nightmare for Russia and leader Vladimir Putin has promised peace with Ukraine and implied possibly even return of the 25 percent of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia, if Ukraine does not join NATO." If that land return includes Crimea, that might work.
