Weekend Data Dump

I started regular The Dignified Rant: Evolved posting on Substack. Give in to the Dark Side and subscribe. I will continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022.

Sh*t got real: "[Secretary Austin] has ordered the USS Georgia (SSGN 729) guided missile submarine to the Central Command region."

The enemy of my enemy is no longer a pariah, eh? "The Biden administration is lifting its years-long suspension of offensive arms shipments to Saudi Arabia, authorizing an initial shipment of air-to-ground munitions and saying it would consider additional new transfers 'on a typical case-by-case basis[.]'"

Is the debris a bug or a feature: "A Chinese rocket carrying the first satellites in a planned communications constellation intended to rival Starlink broke up in low-Earth orbit this week, spreading debris across the orbital regime and worrying experts."

The Russians/Soviets have been oddly good at EW, so good: "In the desert outside of Agadir, American and Moroccan troops are putting new electronic warfare technology and tactics to the test. It’s a small but vital piece of a long-overdue effort to restore and update capabilities disbanded after the Cold War."

Ukraine's Sky Fortress: "consists of nearly 10,000 cell phones mounted on two-meter poles with their microphones activated to detect the unique sounds of [UAVs] flying nearby." Some of the hundreds of gun trucks are sent to the flight path and "destroy most of the drones they encounter." 

Despite my wild speculation, Russia didn't try to frame China: "Beijing has admitted that a Chinese-owned ship damaged a critical Baltic Sea gas pipeline running between Estonia and Finland last October, but says it was an accident." Still, "an accident?" Maybe China chose to help Russia this way.

The ripples of losing a war long ago means Finland has problems now keeping the Russians out of Finland's Aland Islands: "Under a Soviet-era security pact, the islands are completely demilitarised, with no fortifications or military forces allowed in the area."

An update on the Religion of P--oh, why bother: "With hundreds of Hindus and Christians killed and thousands more attacked and wounded, violence on minorities in Bangladesh finally calls western attention to what happens when an Islamist majority is left unchecked to terrorise non-Muslims."

Hitler's solution to the "Jewish problem" wasn't completely final. But modern Europeans are shamefully picking up the ball and running with it. The Belgian cop shrugged with a "it's not my war" excuse for banning Jews to prevent anti-Jewish violence. Oh, it's his war. He chose the other side. Via Instapundit.

Sh*t got real: "Manila announced it will intensify monitoring its air space following an incident last week that saw Chinese fighter jets harass a Philippine aircraft over Scarborough Shoal."

Iran continues to inflict casualties that our government finds acceptable: "A number of U.S. service members suffered minor injuries from a one-way drone attack in Syria Friday, and a few have been transported for further evaluation, the Pentagon said Monday."

Arming up: "Norway has requested to buy 16 of Lockheed Martin’s M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS[.]" A South Korean firm lost the competition. To be fair, South Korea isn't as likely to resupply Norway in a war as America is.

Space Force: "Currently Space Force operates 77 space satellites, including the U.S. GPS, Space Fence [to detect and track active or defunct space satellites and debris, and the], missile warning system[; plus the] NMD (National Missile Defense) system[.]"

Body bags going back to Russia: "Russian military forces in Ukraine have suffered heavy losses since they invaded in early 2022. Recently those set a record for the highest percentage of troops in a unit killed or wounded in a single attack, against Kharkiv[.]" I don't believe Russia can endure that indefinitely.

The idea that attackers suffer three times the loss of defenders is nonsense. I hear analysts say that. But loss ratios vary. Russian defender losses appear to be much higher than attacking Ukrainian losses at the Kursk front, for example.

Oh? "UN chief António Guterres has called for Africa to be given a permanent seat at the UN Security Council as part of reforms to correct historical injustices." With a veto? When they are consumers of UN security and financial programs and not producers? When Japan and India have better cases for status?

Ukraine is setting the stage for nuance in a future American policy that may seek to quickly end the war: "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that Russia had to be forced to make peace[.]" I've assumed Trump's position would evolve to that reality rather than accept defeat and be labeled a loser.

As people get worked up about Russia using nukes because Ukraine entered its territory at Kursk, such a threat isn't credible. Russia's 2020 nuclear doctrine has a higher bar: "aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy[.]"

Big bucks: "Poland on Tuesday signed a $10 billion deal to buy 96 Apache attack helicopters from US manufacturer Boeing in a new upgrade to the country's military capabilities." I hope it isn't a waste of money.

The European Union can ef itself. 

Good: "The State Department today formally approved a series of weapon purchases by Israel, clearing the way for Jerusalem to receive F-15 fighter jets, munitions and vehicles that have a collective estimated price tag of over $20 billion."

Huh: "In a move meant to boost fighting spirit in new Air Force and Space Force recruits, basic trainees are now issued [inert] M-4 rifles early in boot camp which they carry and maintain throughout the course[.]" Not to laugh--I was a REMF--but shouldn't they carry inert bombs? A more useful skill.

The stupid! It burns! Possibly more stupid than this old proposal. So many substitutes for victory.

I suppose this means their victory didn't count? "The Taliban celebrated the third anniversary of its return to power at a former U.S. air base in Afghanistan on Wednesday, but there was no mention of the country’s hardships or promises of hope for the struggling population." "Hope" isn't a jihadi objective.

Hush, hush. Keep it down now. Voices carry: "F-22 Raptors from Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va., landed in Indonesia, Brunei, and the Philippines last week, in a widespread display of fifth-generation airpower across crucial regions in the Indo-Pacific. "

Russia has turned to AI: "In this case Russian propaganda specialists are seeking information that would be useful for a disinformation campaign in NATO countries that would generate popular opposition to NATO efforts to support Ukraine." So far that is failing. Russia is evil and expansionist. Stop them now.

Yes: "Russia believes that Ukrainian efforts to join NATO are part of a NATO plot to surround and weaken Russia. This is not the case because Russia is doing that to itself with corruption, poor leadership and a declining population due to a low birth rate and [emigrating young Russians]." Will Russians notice? 

Why can't we all just hate communists? Their shrieking fanboys (and fangirls) here are morons. 'Murica! Tip to Instapundit.

Notwithstanding a jihadi problem, I keep hearing America shouldn't over-militarize its Africa policy. As if. But: "The U.S. State Department Fumbles Africa Again[.]" Isn't that its mission statement?

Huh: "Germany on Wednesday said its support for Ukraine would remain steadfast, whatever the results of investigations into the sabotage attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022." Germany issued an arrest warrant. I would have bet good money it was an accident.

Oh? "'Jordan is the last holdout,' Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran expert and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) told Fox News Digital. 'It's the last bastion of the pro-Western or status quo order in the heartland of the northern part of the Middle East.'" Fight for Iraq!

We screwed the pooch in Afghanistan. But except for isolated terrorism options with the aircraft if the Taliban can get any to fly, I'm not worried the light infantry arsenal we left behind. I'm worried about what enemies learned. And what allies learned. I'm worried about losing much more.

Iraq wants more helicopters for when American troops leave. Just don't leave prematurely as we did in 2011, which led to Iraq War 2.0 against ISIL. I mean, we're still fighting for Iraq against Iran's influence. Don't give Iraq to Iran!

Many Germans oppose allowing America to station nuclear-tipped cruise missiles in their country: "In the months leading up to the deployment of American Pershing II and cruise missiles in West Germany in the early 1980s, the country erupted in mass protest." Those missiles unified Germany. You're welcome.

I did not know that. I should have known:

To be fair, they're bastards: "The US expressed frustration Wednesday that North Korea is continuing to refuse to allow teams into the reclusive country to recover the remains of American casualties from the Korean War."

The recruiting slump is over? "The Army is set to expand how many new recruits it can send to basic training starting in October, as officials are confident the service is digging out of a recruiting slump it has struggled with for nearly a decade." What changed? Other than lowering its goal to what it got last year.

Russia is re-stocking their hostage supply: "A Russian court has sentenced a Russian-American woman to 12 years in prison for treason after she made a donation of just over $50 to a US-based charity supporting Ukraine."

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Western sources have reportedly leaked Russian plans drawn up between 2008 and 2014 for 'a series of overwhelming strikes across Western Europe,' the Financial Times reported." It's not like they never mention their nukes. But how many of their 5,500 nukes work?

To be fair, they're bastards: "In early July 2024, a Russian missile struck a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Russia has been attacking Ukrainian hospitals since the start of the war but is now concentrating on medical facilities that specialize in treating children."

Putin created the threat he has whined about for decades: "Without the Ukraine War, European voters would not have approved the return of conscription as a necessary step to increase the size of their armed forces." Pretending a weak NATO was a threat to Russia was deliberate. Stupid. But deliberate.

I randomly ran across an old "helping a friend resist our enemy just plays into the enemy's deep plan" genre post.

Pining for a fully capable Marine Corps ground combat capability. Defenders of the radical Force Design changes like to accuse opponents of the changes as "zombies." But the Force Design proponents seem like the undead lurching forward without thought. The intent of change is fine--if done right and not universal.

Oh: "The U.S. government needs to be quicker about rolling out new integrated deterrence efforts, the Pentagon’s top military officer says, as global tensions have risen since the Biden administration made the concept a key part of its national-security strategy." Integrated deterrence? God help us.

Sh*t got real: "The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of the latest variant of Patriot missiles to Germany in a deal that could be worth an estimated $5 billion[.]" Germany arming up is significant.

Shot across the bow? "China’s Commerce Ministry announced Thursday that it will restrict exports of a mineral used in a wide range of products from batteries to weapons." Or boil the frog slowly?

The battle that saved Poland: "NATO member Poland paid tribute Thursday to its historic 1920 victory over the Red Army by honoring fallen Poles and showing off modern tanks and other equipment that it hopes will deter the threat it sees in modern-day Russia." For a while. Vigilance is necessary.

News to me: "From late April through June this year, a unit of Ukrainian troops surrounded by Russian forces was supplied solely by drones. Food and ammunition were regularly dropped to the Ukrainian soldiers during the 70 day-long battle. Eventually a relief force of Ukrainian troops broke through[.]"

As much as this development is bad for the global economy, I'd rather face that than a stronger China: "Unless the Chinese government introduces major structural economic reforms that encourage domestic consumer spending, China could experience a Japanese-style lost economic decade." Tip to PJ Media.

Not to be political, but FFS: "Vice President Kamala Harris is stonewalling a congressional inquiry into her national security adviser's ties to an Iranian government influence network, the Washington Free Beacon has learned." You may recall that "dial turned to 11" foreign policy insanity. Via Instapundit. 

Good luck: "Venezuela’s main opposition leaders are rejecting calls by two Latin American presidents that it hold new elections — this time with more democratic safeguards — and are insisting that their candidate, Edmundo González, be endorsed as the winner of the presidential vote last month."

Sure, via Instapundit, a Kaliningrad, Russia, independence movement is tiny and going nowhere. But maybe Putin will fear it because if three people rallied under the Soviet flag in Riga, Putin would claim he had to rescue his "compatriots abroad" by invading Latvia. 

Cheese-regulating surrender monkeys: "[European Union] appeasers are turning cartwheels in their attempts to woo Masoud Pezeshkian, the new president of Iran." Via Instapundit.

Attrition: "Over two years of fighting in Ukraine have left Russia with few combat capable troops. Russian losses are nearly twice those of Ukraine’s[.]" Russia is open to a ceasefire now. Fear is appearing.  Ukraine will need continued Western supplies to get Russia willing to surrender conquered territory.

NATO: "NATO has established a separate support command in Germany to coordinate training of Ukrainian forces as well as receipt, storage and distribution of weapons and equipment donated by NATO nations for use in Ukraine." NATO's first war? NATO did send troops to Afghanistan. That doesn't count?

This is plausible: "The Era of Large U.S. Navy Surface Warships Is Over[.]" Unless networked defenses can cope; and unless enemy launchers can be destroyed before they fire. But if not, preaching to the TDR choir in regard to sea control--as opposed to power projection.

China isn't interested in getting stuck in a Russia-China-North Korea alliance: "For Beijing, propping up Pyongyang is less important than mending ties with the United States, maintaining Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific and containing the confrontation on the Korean Peninsula."

One thing that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk province is doing is exposing Russian troop weaknesses. As I've said, that's an advantage of having the initiative. I resist getting my hopes up like some seemingly reasonable analysts are about what effects this small operation can generate. Ukraine needs to do more.

Meanwhile in Syria, battling ISIL: "On August 10th eight American soldiers were injured when an explosive laden drone hit their base. ... Thirteen years of civil war in Syria has created chaos in eastern Syria where Russian, Iranian and American forces have established separate zones they control.

Recall I said I didn't assume Haniyeh was killed with a planted bomb: "It was unclear if the seven kilogram warhead was fired from an Israeli aircraft or launched by Israeli operatives in Tehran."

China stops selling liquid natural gas extraction equipment to Russia: "Most of China’s foreign trade is with the United States and Europe. The western sanctions threat was potentially devastating for China while the loss of its much smaller trade activity with Russia is something China can survive." 

Given that Musk's Starlink provides Ukraine with superior battlefield communications, I assume this is an effort to drive a needless wedge between Musk and Ukraine: "Chechnya President Ramzan Kadyrov invited Tesla CEO Elon Musk to Russia [after his video driving a Cybertruck with a machine gun.]"